503
FXAK67 PAJK 150637
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1037 PM AKDT SAT MAR 14 2026
UPDATE...TO INCLUDE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC LATE SATURDAY, STRENGTHENING OFF THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND HYDER.
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A
SHORT DURATION ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE
STRONG FRONT PUSHES INLAND, WITH WIND GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH
EXPECTED.
- PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW STAYS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA KEEPING A PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF BANDS OF HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. THIS
IS A SEPARATE AND WEAKER SYSTEM AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER LOW THAT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, ANTICIPATING GENERALLY
3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL, WITH A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH, PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SNOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM TENAKEE SPRINGS TO ANGOON OVER TO STEPHENS
PASSAGE. CURRENT FORECAST IS AROUND 6 TO 14 INCHES, WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, INCLUDING JUNEAU.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES FOR JUNEAU, GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, TENAKEE
SPRINGS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SIMPLY PUT, PLAN FOR 4 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, ONE COMPLICATION IS THE CHANGEOVER TIMING FROM SNOW TO
RAIN SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON; ON ONE HAND WE HAVE
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION, ON THE OTHER, HEAVY PRECIPITATION
RATES WHICH WILL DRIVE SNOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CURRENT FORECAST
HOLDS ON TO THE HEAVY PRECIP RATES, KEEPING SNOW AROUND FOR
LONGER, BUT WE WILL SEE ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SEA LEVEL LOCATIONS AROUND PRINCE OF WALES AND
KETCHIKAN/METLAKATLA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAIN ON SNOW EVENT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, ANOTHER INCOMING HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A SHORT DURATION OF STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INLAND. THERE WAS STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST PUSHING JUST WEST OF BARANOF ISLAND ALLOWING STRONGEST
WINDS TO BE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. NOT
ANTICIPATING THESE LEVEL OF WINDS TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTHWEST, LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, EVENTUALLY SETTLING
IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF.
LONG TERM
AFTER THE STORM WEAKENS AND STEADIER SNOW DIMINISHES ON MONDAY
NIGHT, EXPECT THE SNOWY PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OUT OVER THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA. COLD
TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -6 TO -12 CELSIUS.
500MB TROUGHING REMAINS OUT OVER THE GULF, WITH THE MAIN JET AND
STORM TRACK OVER SOUTHERN BC. LIKE THE PATTERN WE SAW LAST WEEK,
EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL PICK UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH EACH PASSING
SHORT WAVE, WITH SNOW RATES UP TO AN INCH OR MORE AT TIMES. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL, HOWEVER, WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, ABOUT 2 TO 6 DEGREES, WITH HIGHS IN THE AROUND 30 TO
MID 30S NORTH AND MID 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AS TEMPS RISE AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SNOW
LEVELS INCREASING. NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR HIGH WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE LOW REMAINS OUT OVER THE GULF AND GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY
LAX, BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE AND
IN STRONGER SHOWERS.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE TUESDAY ONWARD, BUT
RULE OUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY FAVORED TO BE NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ROTATING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MOST HEAVILY CLUSTERED
AROUND AREAS NORTH OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. SOME GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS, BUT OF EQUAL
CONCERN IS THE REDUCTIONS IN VIS DOWN TO ~1SM AND CIGS SENT
TUMBLING INTO LOW END MVFR OR EVEN IFR THAT HAPPEN UNDERNEATH SAID
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE IN BETWEEN THE SHOWERS. THIS SITUATION WILL RAPIDLY
CHANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS CONDITIONS BEGIN PLUMMETING
TOWARDS IFR IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, ENTER LIFR. AS A STRONG SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW AND WIND
ADVANCES INTO SE AK. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY, REACHING THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR IN FULL FORCE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. YAKUTAT WILL BE THE
BIGGEST EXCEPTION WITH CONDITIONS WHICH STARTED OFF WITH
SNOW SHOWER DRIVEN ACTIVITY DRIVING VIS AND CIGS DOWNWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A CHANGEOVER
TO RAIN IS INITIALLY LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED, WITH COLDER AIR
EVENTUALLY RETURNING IN FORCE. ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, AND FOR THESE
SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): ALONG OUR COAST, NOT MUCH TO
TALK ABOUT WITH RESPECT TO WIND, AS OF 1500 SATURDAY THE AMSR2
PASS AND BUOYS ALL SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. BUOYS
ARE REPORTING OUR FIRST DOMINANT SOUTHERLY SWELL OF THE SEASON,
ORIGINATING FROM SIGNIFICANT LOWS EAST OF NEW ZEALAND SEVERAL DAYS
AGO; SSE 2 TO 3 FT AT 17 TO 19 SECONDS AND SW TO NW WIND CHOP ON
TOP, 1 TO 2 FT AT 3 TO 5 SECONDS. HOWEVER, ALL COMBINED
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE BELOW 6 FT, A WELCOME RESPITE TO THE
VERY ACTIVE SEASON. TONIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ALONG THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO A STORM FORCE LOW THAT
WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEAR HAIDA GWAII, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE FORCE
WINDS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CROSS SOUND. FROM LITUYA BAY TO CAPE
ST. ELIAS, EXPECT STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALE FORCE CONDITIONS;
STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SUNDAY NIGHT, OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF UPPER BAY IN YAKUTAT BAY, WITH GALE FORCE
FORECASTED.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
WINDS OF GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE INSIDE AS OF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A STORM FORCE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BUILD SOUTH
OF ICY STRAIT IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
FORECASTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF CLARENCE STRAIT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS LIKELY
SOUTH OF HYDABURG IN CORDOVA BAY. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
ALSO LIKELY IN LYNN CANAL AND AS WINDS ARE PULLED OUT OF THE
INSIDE, WITH GALES LIKELY OUT OF CROSS SOUND. MARINERS SHOULD
PREPARE THEIR VESSELS FOR THE ONSET OF SNOW. FOR FOLKS IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CHECK BILGE PUMPS AS HEAVY SNOW BECOMES HEAVY
RAIN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ317.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ318-319.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ320>322-325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ322.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ323.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ323.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ323.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ324.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ326.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ327-329.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ327-
330.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ328.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ330-
332.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ331.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ332.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ641.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-642-644-652-661>664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>035-053-643-651-672.
SHORT TERM...AP/NM
LONG TERM...NM/DS
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...AP
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