175
FXAK67 PAJK 152054 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1254 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST AND AVIATION UPDATE
OVERALL, MODERATE ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING MESSAGE. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS, HIGH WIND WARNINGS, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, AND WIND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
THE FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG
FRONT PUSHES INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MAIN CHANGES
GENERALLY CONTAINED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING,
ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS PRINCE OF WALES, KETCHIKAN, AND
ANNETTE ISLAND WITH SURFACE TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
INITIALLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN PREDOMINATELY RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW, WITH MOST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS KEEPING A MORE DEFINED
LOW MAKING LANDFALL FROM SITKA NORTHWARD CROSS SOUND. HOWEVER,
RECENT TRENDS IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE ARE PULLING THIS LOW TRACK A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH OF BARANOF AND ACCELERATING IT INTO THE
PANHANDLE AS A LOW IN THE THE GULF TAKES OVER, DECREASING OVERALL
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTING SNOW. FOR THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR, INCLUDING JUNEAU, ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, AROUND 6 TO 12
INCHES STARTING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY, BECOMING HEAVY
WET SNOW INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWER SNOW RATIOS NEAR 10
TO 1. LOCALLY HIGHER MOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE THE TRACK OF THIS LOW, WHICH
WILL CHANGE THE TIMING OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND HOW MUCH
RESULTING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WE WILL SEE. FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON, THIS FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BRING COOLER AIR DOWN FROM
ALOFT RESULTING IN WET HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH A 1 INCH PER
HOUR BRIEFLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM
SITKA TO KAKE AND SOUTHWARD. NO MAJOR WIND FORECAST CHANGES, GALES
NEAR 35KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFF THE COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND WITHIN THE LAST HOUR WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS. OVERLAND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 TO 60MPH FOR SOUTHERN PRINCE OF
WALES, ANNETTE ISLAND, AND KETCHIKAN.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
AS OF 2030Z, SNOW SHOWERS ARE PICKING UP WITH INTENSITY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, WITH IFR TO MVFR VIS BEING REPORTED AT
SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS SITES AND CIGS NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FT. A WARM
START THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN THE SAVING
GRACE FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE; HOWEVER, AS HEAVIER RATES
MOVE IN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS AFTERNOON WE ANTICIPATE IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS FROM SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, NEAR OR AFTER 00Z, EXPECT A TRANSITION TO RA WITH IFR
IMPROVING TO MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOR THE NORTHERN REGION, AS THE SOUTH TRANSITIONS TO RAIN, SNOW
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY WORSEN
FROM VFR TO MVFR, AND THEN IFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR.
LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION, WITH PEAK CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, LLWS WILL REMAIN PRESENT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE
RESPONSIBLE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 623 AM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC, STRENGTHENING OFF THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND HYDER.
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A
SHORT DURATION ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE
STRONG FRONT PUSHES INLAND, WITH WIND GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH
EXPECTED.
- PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW STAYS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA KEEPING A PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF BANDS OF HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE NE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT
AS EXPECTED WITH WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED AND ARE WINDING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS, SNOWFALL RATES HAVE INCREASED GREATLY OVER YAKUTAT.
THUS THAT AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
NEW SNOWFALL THROUGH MID-DAY IN YAKUTAT IS LOOKING TO BE 5-7
INCHES. THE SHOWERS WILL PUSH BACK OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SUNNY BREAKS
IN YAKUTAT, BUT THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO FILL IN ON THE RADAR, BUT ONLY
HYDABURG HAS SEEN A TRACE AS OF 6AM AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SO
FAR WITH THEIR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDING UP. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FOR THE DAYTIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE TO SHOW MORE OF A DISTINCT BREAK BETWEEN THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS AND WHEN THE STRATIFORM SNOW TRACKS IN FROM
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. DID NOT DELAY THE START OF
THE WARNING FOR JUNEAU/ICY STRAIT AND AREAS NORTHWARD, BUT IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE A COUPLE HOURS LATER. NAM BASED
MODELS SUGGEST A DIFFERENT TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER, AND THUS
WILDLY DIFFERENT SNOWFALL AND WIND AMOUNTS/TIMING. THE CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS (GFS/CANADIAN ETC.) REMAINED IN LINE WITH OUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST, SO DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF THE WARNING
PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS TEMPERATURES, AS
MANY MODELS WANT TO WARM THINGS UP RATHER QUICKLY. WITH EXPECTED
COLD AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH, NORTHERLY WINDS, AND
PRECIPITATION RATES, BELIEVE IT WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF ANY
GUIDANCE AND STAY SNOW. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS ANOTHER
STORY...AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHWARD AND CAUSE TEMPS TO SPIKE UP AND SNOW LEVELS TO RISE. AS
THIS HAPPENS, ANY WINTER PRODUCTS IN EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE
DROPPED, BUT WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL BE GOING FOR A BIT
LONGER AFTER THAT. SINCE THIS WILL BE DYNAMIC TODAY, PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST STATEMENT FOR YOUR TOWN FOR THE BEST DETAILS.
LONG TERM...
AFTER THE STORM WEAKENS AND STEADIER SNOW DIMINISHES ON MONDAY
NIGHT, EXPECT THE SNOWY PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OUT OVER THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA. COLD
TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -6 TO -12 CELSIUS.
500MB TROUGHING REMAINS OUT OVER THE GULF, WITH THE MAIN JET AND
STORM TRACK OVER SOUTHERN BC. LIKE THE PATTERN WE SAW LAST WEEK,
EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL PICK UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH EACH PASSING
SHORT WAVE, WITH SNOW RATES UP TO AN INCH OR MORE AT TIMES. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL, HOWEVER, WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, ABOUT 2 TO 6 DEGREES, WITH HIGHS IN THE AROUND 30 TO
MID 30S NORTH AND MID 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AS TEMPS RISE AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SNOW
LEVELS INCREASING. NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR HIGH WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE LOW REMAINS OUT OVER THE GULF AND GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY
LAX, BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE AND
IN STRONGER SHOWERS.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE TUESDAY ONWARD, BUT
RULE OUT SOME PLACES SEEING AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY FAVORED TO BE NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE(EASTERN GULF AND OUTER COASTAL WATERS): A STORM FORCE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE SOUTH. IT WILL BRING WITH
IT HIGH END GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
TODAY, WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 30 KT FOR THAT AREA AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ALSO, TODAY INTO TONIGHT, FROM LITUYA BAY
TO CAPE ST. ELIAS, EXPECT STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF CROSS SOUND BEING UP TO
35-40 KT. ADDITIONALLY, SUNDAY NIGHT, OUTFLOW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF UPPER BAY IN YAKUTAT BAY, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. WINDS WILL THEN APPRECIABLY SUBSIDE DURING THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS & PULLS WESTWARD &
MEANDERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
INSIDE WATERS(INNER CHANNELS): A STORM FORCE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BUILD SOUTH
OF ICY STRAIT IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
FORECASTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF CLARENCE STRAIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS LIKELY SOUTH OF
HYDABURG IN CORDOVA BAY. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY
IN LYNN CANAL AND AS WINDS ARE PULLED OUT OF THE INSIDE, WITH GALES
LIKELY OUT OF CROSS SOUND. MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE THEIR VESSELS FOR
THE ONSET OF SNOW. FOR FOLKS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CHECK BILGE
PUMPS AS HEAVY SNOW BECOMES HEAVY RAIN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN APPRECIABLY SUBSIDE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORKWEEK AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS & PULLS WESTWARD & MEANDERS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ317.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM AKDT MONDAY
FOR AKZ318-319.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ320>322-325.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ323.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ323.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ324.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ326.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ327-329.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ327-330.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ328.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ330-
332.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ331.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM AKDT MONDAY
FOR AKZ332.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ641.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-053-642>644-651-652-661>664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-672.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...FERRIN
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...JLC
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