128
FXAK67 PAJK 160002
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
402 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC, STRENGTHENING OFF THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ALONG
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND HYDER.
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A
SHORT DURATION ON SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AS THE STRONG FRONT PUSHES INLAND, WITH WIND GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH
EXPECTED.
- PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW STAYS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA KEEPING A PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF BANDS OF HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH TUESDAY/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST OR MESSAGE FROM THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS, HIGH WIND WARNINGS, WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES, AND WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MAIN CHANGES FROM THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST GENERALLY CONTAINED
TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ACROSS PRINCE OF WALES, KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE ISLAND WITH
SURFACE TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST,
RESULTING IN PREDOMINATELY RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START OFF, AND
TAMPERED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY WITH SOME STARTER
WAA WORKING INLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW, WITH MOST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS KEEPING A
MORE DEFINED LOW MAKING LANDFALL FROM SITKA NORTHWARD CROSS
SOUND. HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE ARE PULLING
THIS LOW TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OF BARANOF AND ACCELERATING IT
INTO THE PANHANDLE AS A LOW IN THE THE GULF TAKES OVER, DECREASING
OVERALL EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY, TOUGH SNOWFALL FORECAST CONTINUES. WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PULLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, THINKING HIGHEST
SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE UPPER
ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY NEAR WHITE PASS AND ALONG THE
CHILKAT PENINSULA NEAR HAINES.
FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, INCLUDING JUNEAU, EXPECTING AROUND 6
TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. SNOW CHARACTERISTIC WILL TURN FROM LIGHT AND
FLUFFY BECOMING HEAVIER WET SNOW INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOWER SNOW RATIOS NEAR 10 TO 1 ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE TRACK OF THIS LOW, WHICH WILL CHANGE THE
TIMING OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND HOW MUCH RESULTING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WE WILL SEE.
FOR THE SOUTHERN FAR PANHANDLE, PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS CHANGED
OVER TO PREDOMINATELY SNOW AS OF 1PM WITH THE BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. WET HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH A 1 INCH
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM
SITKA TO KAKE AND SOUTHWARD BY MONDAY MORNING.
AS FOR WIND, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND GULF HAVE BEGUN TO SEE
STRONG GUSTS AS THE LOW HAS MOVED NORTHWARD. SO FAR, THE STRONGEST
LAND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN NEAR SAXMAN SEAPORT AND SALMON LANDING
IN KETCHIKAN. AT THESE AREAS, WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH OVER SOUTHERN PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND, ANNETTE ISLAND, AND NEAR PILLAR ROCK. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHANGE TO WIND WAS OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS
ISLAND. THIS WAS DUE TO INCREASED SE WINDS COMING OUT OF TAKU
INLET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS DUE TO THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. NOW FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY AS THIS LOW TIGHTENS THE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX MONDAY AS THE LOW
DISSIPATES.
LONG TERM
/ WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SIMPLE MESSAGE:
ONSHORE FLOW DRIVES SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PANHANDLE WED INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH VARYING SNOW AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SNOW
SHOWERS. LIKELY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY WEDNESDAY A LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL MATURE AND STAGNATE, BEING REINFORCED BY PULSES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDING SOUTH FROM WESTERN AK. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT SYSTEM OVER THE GULF,
WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850MB HOLDING NEAR -10C FOR MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THE
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF, DRIVING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. KEEPING THINGS
SIMPLE HERE, WE WILL SEE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AS COLD AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS,
CREATING A COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC SNOW FORECAST. EXPECT SHOWERS, WITH
IMPACTS AND PRECIP TYPE DRIVEN BY SHOWER INTENSITY, LOCATION, AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SNOW SHOWERS. MIDWEEK TO THE WEEKEND
WILL MIRROR THE PREVIOUS SNOW SHOWER REGIME, WITH AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR FORECASTS TO BUST. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE LONGER
PATH THAT COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM IN THE GULF, WHICH COULD DRIVE MORE VIGOROUS INSTABILITY
BUT RESULT IN WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. THIS
COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHTER SHOWERS, WITH HEAVIER BURSTS OF PRECIP
ALLOWING ALL SNOW TO PUSH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT WHERE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW.
FOR REFERENCE, -10C AT 850MB THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NEAR THE 10 TH
PERCENTILE FOR BOTH YAKUTAT AND ANNETTE SOUNDING SITES, WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO BE AT NORMAL ALONG THE COAST TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
A LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF
OF AK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES TOWARDS SE
AK PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE SOUTHER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE.
FOR AREAS. THE AVIATION IMPACTS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE IS
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON TYPE. FOR AREAS S PAAP-PAPG LINE TERMINALS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MAINLY RAIN YIELDING MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER, ISOLATED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE
LOWER CONDITIONS EITHER DUE TO CEILINGS OR SNOW BRIEFLY GETTING
MIXED IN. FOR AREAS BETWEEN PAJN AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
EXPECT A SNOW SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX - RESULTING
IN IFR VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO MVFR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW RESULTING IN
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
THE NORTH GULF COAST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR AS
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS.
WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE REGION'S WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE
FROM THE SW TOMORROW MORNING. LLWS CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO SURGE THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN INSIDE WATERS DUE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT GALE FORCE
WINDS INTO CLARENCE STRAIT, SOUTHERN CHATHAM, AND SUMNER STRAIT.
CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED NEAR CAPE DECISION AND
SALMON LANDING. THERE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OUT
OF LYNN CANAL NEAR POINT COUVERDEN. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTH, IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD
OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGHOUT LYNN CANAL. ANOTHER AREA
TO WATCH WILL BE CROSS SOUND AS WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 30 KTS FROM THE
EAST. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD
WHERE THESE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHWEST BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
BECOMING EASTERLY. BY TUESDAY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE INNER CHANNELS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A STRONG LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT SUSTAINED
GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR 40 KTS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS NEAR 50 KTS INTO
DIXON ENTRANCE AND TO AREAS WEST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO WEST OF BARANOF ISLAND. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. A COUPLE
OF THINGS ALSO OCCUR AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. FIRST, STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PUSH OUT OF CROSS SOUND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
THEN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD, WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. ALONG WITH STRONG
WINDS, AN AREA OF 15 TO 20 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS EVENING. THESE WAVES SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 10 FT
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THEN TO START THE WEEK, THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF 17 TO 27 KTS ACROSS
THE GULF. AT THIS TIME, SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR TIMES OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS
SHOWERY PATTERN THEN LASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM AKDT MONDAY
FOR AKZ318-319.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ320>322-325.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ323.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ323.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ324.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ325-327-330.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ326.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ327-329.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ330-
332.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ331.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-641>644-661>664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-651-652-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...NM/EAB
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...BUTWIN
MARINE...EAB
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