486
FXAK67 PAJK 160636
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1036 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE TO INCLUDE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE NORTH OF SITKA OVERNIGHT
WITH THE ATTENDANT FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.
DRIER, EASTERLY FLOW HAS DELAYED THE START OF THE HEAVIER SNOW FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE GOES SNOWFALL RATE PRODUCT HAS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR SLOWLY CREEPING
NORTH. HAVE LOWERED STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO 4 TO 8
INCHES FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS. WARMER AIR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT HAS SWITCHED SNOW OVER TO RAIN THIS EVENING OR WILL BY EARLY
MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF POW. GUSTY WINDS
STILL POSSIBLE FOR KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC, STRENGTHENING OFF THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ALONG
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND HYDER.
- PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW STAYS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA KEEPING A PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF BANDS OF HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH TUESDAY/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST OR MESSAGE FROM THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS, HIGH WIND WARNINGS, WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES, AND WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MAIN CHANGES FROM THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST GENERALLY CONTAINED
TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ACROSS PRINCE OF WALES, KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE ISLAND WITH
SURFACE TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST,
RESULTING IN PREDOMINATELY RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START OFF, AND
TAMPERED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY WITH SOME STARTER
WAA WORKING INLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW, WITH MOST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS KEEPING A
MORE DEFINED LOW MAKING LANDFALL FROM SITKA NORTHWARD CROSS
SOUND. HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE ARE PULLING
THIS LOW TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OF BARANOF AND ACCELERATING IT
INTO THE PANHANDLE AS A LOW IN THE THE GULF TAKES OVER, DECREASING
OVERALL EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND RESULTING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY, TOUGH SNOWFALL FORECAST CONTINUES. WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PULLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, THINKING HIGHEST
SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE UPPER
ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY NEAR WHITE PASS AND ALONG THE
CHILKAT PENINSULA NEAR HAINES.
FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, INCLUDING JUNEAU, EXPECTING AROUND 6
TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. SNOW CHARACTERISTIC WILL TURN FROM LIGHT AND
FLUFFY BECOMING HEAVIER WET SNOW INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOWER SNOW RATIOS NEAR 10 TO 1 ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE TRACK OF THIS LOW, WHICH WILL CHANGE THE
TIMING OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND HOW MUCH RESULTING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WE WILL SEE.
FOR THE SOUTHERN FAR PANHANDLE, PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS CHANGED
OVER TO PREDOMINATELY SNOW AS OF 1PM WITH THE BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. WET HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH A 1 INCH
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM
SITKA TO KAKE AND SOUTHWARD BY MONDAY MORNING.
AS FOR WIND, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND GULF HAVE BEGUN TO SEE
STRONG GUSTS AS THE LOW HAS MOVED NORTHWARD. SO FAR, THE STRONGEST
LAND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN NEAR SAXMAN SEAPORT AND SALMON LANDING
IN KETCHIKAN. AT THESE AREAS, WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH OVER SOUTHERN PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND, ANNETTE ISLAND, AND NEAR PILLAR ROCK. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHANGE TO WIND WAS OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS
ISLAND. THIS WAS DUE TO INCREASED SE WINDS COMING OUT OF TAKU
INLET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS DUE TO THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. NOW FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY AS THIS LOW TIGHTENS THE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX MONDAY AS THE LOW
DISSIPATES.
LONG TERM
/ WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SIMPLE MESSAGE:
ONSHORE FLOW DRIVES SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PANHANDLE WED INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH VARYING SNOW AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SNOW
SHOWERS. LIKELY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY WEDNESDAY A LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL MATURE AND STAGNATE, BEING REINFORCED BY PULSES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDING SOUTH FROM WESTERN AK. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT SYSTEM OVER THE GULF,
WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850MB HOLDING NEAR -10C FOR MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THE
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF, DRIVING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. KEEPING THINGS
SIMPLE HERE, WE WILL SEE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AS COLD AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS,
CREATING A COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC SNOW FORECAST. EXPECT SHOWERS, WITH
IMPACTS AND PRECIP TYPE DRIVEN BY SHOWER INTENSITY, LOCATION, AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SNOW SHOWERS. MIDWEEK TO THE WEEKEND
WILL MIRROR THE PREVIOUS SNOW SHOWER REGIME, WITH AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR FORECASTS TO BUST. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE LONGER
PATH THAT COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM IN THE GULF, WHICH COULD DRIVE MORE VIGOROUS INSTABILITY
BUT RESULT IN WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. THIS
COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHTER SHOWERS, WITH HEAVIER BURSTS OF PRECIP
ALLOWING ALL SNOW TO PUSH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT WHERE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW.
FOR REFERENCE, -10C AT 850MB THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NEAR THE 10TH
PERCENTILE FOR BOTH YAKUTAT AND ANNETTE SOUNDING SITES, WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO BE AT NORMAL ALONG THE COAST TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A STRONG FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF
VFR ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AS THE EDGE OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO REACH THEM. AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD, IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY DURING
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW, BRINGING CIGS DOWN TO AOB 1500 FT WITH
LIMITED VIS. AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE STILL BEING
INFLUENCED BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MAY SEE BLOWING SNOW, AS WELL
AS LOCATIONS THAT ARE BEING IMPACTED BY THE STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES OVER. GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TIMES OF THE STRONGEST WINDS, THOUGH THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN TO AOB 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PETERSBURG TO SITKA ARE EITHER
SEEING FULLY RAIN, OR ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSITION OVER TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN INEVITABLY RAIN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THESE
AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE STEADILY IMPROVING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE IMPROVED CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE VFR,
AS LOW CIGS AND CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS WILL KEEP VIS LOWERED.
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
WHOLE PERIOD. ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, CONDITIONS ARE NOW
BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE AS SNOW MOVES IN. A BAND OF SNOW HAS MADE
IT UP TO HAINES AND SKAGWAY WHICH IS ESPECIALLY BRINGING DOWN
CONDITIONS IN HAINES, THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE MAIN IMPACTFUL SNOW REACHES
THEM. LLWS AT AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE PERSISTS ALONG THE FRONT, THOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF QUICKLY AS THE MAIN IMPACTFUL WINDS MOVE OUT WITH THE
FRONT. JUNEAU ALSO IS SEEING SOME LLWS, THOUGH THIS IS MAINLY DUE
TO STRONG WINDS COMING OUT OF TAKU INLET AND IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO SURGE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INSIDE WATERS DUE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT
GALE FORCE WINDS INTO CLARENCE STRAIT, SOUTHERN CHATHAM, AND
SUMNER STRAIT. CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED NEAR CAPE
DECISION AND SALMON LANDING. THERE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OUT OF LYNN CANAL NEAR POINT COUVERDEN. AS THIS
LOW MOVES NORTH, IT WILL STRENGTHEN THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS
THROUGHOUT LYNN CANAL. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE CROSS SOUND
AS WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 30 KTS FROM THE EAST. AS THE LOW PUSHES
NORTHWARD, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THESE WINDS QUICKLY
BECOME SOUTHWEST BEFORE ONCE AGAIN BECOMING EASTERLY. BY TUESDAY
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A STRONG LOW IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR 40 KTS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS NEAR
50 KTS INTO DIXON ENTRANCE AND TO AREAS WEST OF PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO WEST OF BARANOF ISLAND.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING. A COUPLE OF THINGS ALSO OCCUR AS THIS LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD. FIRST, STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PUSH OUT OF CROSS
SOUND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THEN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD,
WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF. ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS, AN AREA OF 15 TO 20 FT
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS
EVENING. THESE WAVES SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 10 FT STARTING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
THEN TO START THE WEEK, THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF 17 TO 27
KTS ACROSS THE GULF. AT THIS TIME, SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR TIMES OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS SHOWERY PATTERN THEN LASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ318>322-325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ323.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ324.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ325-330.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ326.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-644-662>664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-034-035-053-
641>643-651-652-661-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NM/EAB
LONG TERM...AP/DS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAB
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