795
FXAK67 PAJK 161404
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
604 AM AKDT MON MAR 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
-A LOW WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN DEPARTS THE
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY.
-ANOTHER LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY, AND SENDS
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE AK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
A LOW MOVING NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO
BRING SNOW AND RAIN TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THOUGH THE WORST OF THE
WIND HAS ALREADY LARGELY DEPARTED THE AREA. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION, PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY CHANGED OVER TO
RAIN, WITH RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN MIXING
BACK IN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY, THOUGH A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL PERSIST IN SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY INTO TUESDAY.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, THE ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM'S LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL, WITH
THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR AS OF EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF THIS
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY, INCLUDING JUNEAU, HAVE SEEN LESS SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT. WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU AREA, SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LOWER THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED; BUT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SWEEPING
INTO SE AK IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AFTER IT DEPARTS MONDAY
MORNING. A NEW LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK WILL
BRING COLD AIR AND INSTABILITY ALOFT RACING ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO THE PANHANDLE. MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS WILL SEE WIDESPREAD BANDS
OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH, WITH PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEK; ALTHOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
/ WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ SIMPLE MESSAGE:
ONSHORE FLOW DRIVES SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PANHANDLE WED INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH VARYING SNOW AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SNOW
SHOWERS. LIKELY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY WEDNESDAY A LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL MATURE AND STAGNATE, BEING REINFORCED BY PULSES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDING SOUTH FROM WESTERN AK. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT SYSTEM OVER THE GULF,
WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850MB HOLDING NEAR -10C FOR MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THE
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF, DRIVING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. KEEPING THINGS
SIMPLE HERE, WE WILL SEE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AS COLD AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS,
CREATING A COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC SNOW FORECAST. EXPECT SHOWERS, WITH
IMPACTS AND PRECIP TYPE DRIVEN BY SHOWER INTENSITY, LOCATION, AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SNOW SHOWERS. MIDWEEK TO THE WEEKEND
WILL MIRROR THE PREVIOUS SNOW SHOWER REGIME, WITH AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR FORECASTS TO BUST. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE LONGER
PATH THAT COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM IN THE GULF, WHICH COULD DRIVE MORE VIGOROUS INSTABILITY
BUT RESULT IN WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. THIS
COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHTER SHOWERS, WITH HEAVIER BURSTS OF PRECIP
ALLOWING ALL SNOW TO PUSH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT WHERE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW.
FOR REFERENCE, -10C AT 850MB THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NEAR THE 10TH
PERCENTILE FOR BOTH YAKUTAT AND ANNETTE SOUNDING SITES, WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO BE AT NORMAL ALONG THE COAST TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
AVIATION.../ THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT /
MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE PANHANDLE (GLACIER BAY AND LYNN CANAL) IS ON THE EDGE OF
THE MAIN BAND, WHILE YAKUTAT HAS A LOW THE GULF TO THEIR
SOUTHWEST, AND DOESN'T SEEM TO BE PUSHING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ONSHORE. SO YAKUTAT, LIKELY TO REMAIN TODAY. A
SHORT WAVE IN THE MOISTURE BAND THIS MORNING HAS BEEN REDUCING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH CEILING OF 2000 TO
4000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES OF 4 TO 7 MILES. THE NORTHERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL HAS A SNOW OR RAIN SNOW MIX WHICH HAS A MOSTLY SIMILAR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY ISSUE HAINES/GUSTAVUS/AND HOONAH HAVE A 1
TO 3 MILE POCKET OF SNOW THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE IMPROVE THOUGH DAY BUT MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOCALLY LOW IN
A POCKET OF SNOW OR SHOWER.
ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN LATE ON MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, AND FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SYSTEM ON MONDAY, A NEW LOW IS SWIFTLY FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING WITH IT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
MORE ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE, WITH 8 TO 12 FT EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK. SWELL WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH MONDAY, AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
WINDS REMAIN DIVIDED ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS. SOUTH OF THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START THE DAY BETWEEN FRESH
AND STRONG BREEZE, GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN TOWARDS STRONG BREEZE
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
NORTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN
PERSISTENT, STRONG BREEZES LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. WINDS IN ICY STRAIT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE OCEAN ENTRANCES TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ318>322-325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM AKDT
TUESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ323.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ324.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ331.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ651-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-641>644-
652-661>664-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP/DS
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...GFS
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