276
FXAK67 PAJK 170009
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
409 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2026
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AN ACTIVE AND DIFFICULT FORECAST CONTINUES ACROSS SEAK THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE PANHANDLE IS CURRENTLY SPLIT INTO 2 REGIMES DUE TO
PASSING FRONT WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING FROM SITKA TO
ANGOON TO JUNEAU WITH RAIN ONGOING FROM KAKE SOUTHWARD TO
KETCHIKAN. MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL
REMAIN CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS A LOW
PARKS ITSELF IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK, SENDING PERSISTENT WAVES OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD, INCLUDING YAKUTAT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AND POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS IN NATURE,
PRODUCING WIDELY VARIABLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
THROUGH TONIGHT, PROGGING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR
GUSTAVUS, JUNEAU, HOONAH, PELICAN AND SITKA. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS INCOMING WAVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARIABLE HIT OR MISS NATURE OF HOW
THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
COULD BE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS IF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, NO MAJOR
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM SW TO NE AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVES ROTATE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IN THE GULF.
LONG TERM
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SE AK. THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW WITH TIMES OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS
SNOW DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE BERING. THIS RIDGE, ALONG WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL PUSH NORTHERLY FLOW WITH COLD AIR INTO THE
GULF AND THEN INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS COLD AIR MOVING OVER WARMER
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT,
IN TURN GIVING US OUR SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WITH MORE
UNCERTAINLY ON SPECIFIC SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKING AT
PROBABILITIES, THERE IS AROUND A 60 TO 70% CHANCE THAT AREAS ALONG
THE COAST, FROM BARANOF ISLAND AND NORTHWARD, COULD SEE AROUND 5 TO
8 INCHES OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS. THIS WILL HIGHLY BE DEPENDENT ON DAY
TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY REDUCE SNOW
RATIOS IN TURN LOWERING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR TIMES OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WITH HEAVIER BURSTS OF
PRECIP ALLOWING ALL SNOW TO PUSH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, CONFIDENCE IS A LOT HIGHER THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING ALLOWING ALL PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE AFTERNOON AVIATION FORECAST, THE WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR ELFIN COVE, HOONAH AND NORTH ADMIRALTY ISLAND. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING SW TO NE IN THE MEAN LEVEL FLOW, PRODUCING
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN LAYER FLOW BRINGING UP SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE MAIN AREA WHERE THE SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE
CONCENTRATED WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT...EXTENDING FROM YAKUTAT SOUTH TO THE ICY STRAIT
AREA...GUSTAVUS...HAINES AND PERIODICALLY SKAGWAY 03Z-15Z. TO THE
SOUTH, MOSTLY A RAIN TO OVERNIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES.
/05-GARMON
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A BROAD LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING WITH IT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT, ISOLATED POCKED UP TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BE PREDOMINATELY W
TO SW WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE PREDOMINATELY E
TO NE. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL REMAIN MORE ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE, WITH 8
TO 12 FT EXPECTED WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS REMAIN DIVIDED ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR,
SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN FRESH AND STRONG BREEZE, GRADUALLY
TRENDING DOWN TOWARDS FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECTING STRONG
BREEZES TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES INLAND INCREASING TO STRONG
BREEZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST INNER CHANNEL WINDS
EXPECTED WITHIN LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 1 TO 3 FT, 3 TO 5FT WITHIN LYNN CANAL,
STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM AKDT
TUESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ320>323-
325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ651-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-053-641>644-652-661>664-672.
SHORT TERM...MORGAN/GARMON
LONG TERM...BRUNSEN
AVIATION...GARMON
MARINE...MORGAN
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