290
FXAK67 PAJK 171248
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
448 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
-HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE, AS A STRONG BAND MOVES ACROSS SE AK
THROUGH MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BAND TO ARRIVE
TUESDAY EVENING.
-MORE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
-A STRONG LOW MAY MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND IMPACT THE PANHANDLE
OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH SE
AK, AS A LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A STRONGER
BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING WITH IT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE. COOLING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKEWISE ENABLE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO BRING CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW BACK TO THE REMAINING 'WARMER' PORTIONS OF SE AK. THE
CULPRIT, A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW, WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO SEND SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SE AK. THESE SHOWERS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW WITH TIMES OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS SNOW
DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE BERING. THIS RIDGE, ALONG WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL PUSH NORTHERLY FLOW WITH COLD AIR INTO THE
GULF AND THEN INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS COLD AIR MOVING OVER WARMER
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT, IN TURN GIVING US OUR SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST WITH MORE UNCERTAINLY ON SPECIFIC SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
LOOKING AT PROBABILITIES, THERE IS AROUND A 60 TO 70% CHANCE THAT
AREAS ALONG THE COAST, FROM BARANOF ISLAND AND NORTHWARD, COULD
SEE AROUND 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS. THIS WILL HIGHLY BE
DEPENDENT ON DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN
QUICKLY REDUCE SNOW RATIOS IN TURN LOWERING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TIMES OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX,
WITH HEAVIER BURSTS OF PRECIP ALLOWING ALL SNOW TO PUSH DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, CONFIDENCE IS A LOT
HIGHER THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING ALLOWING ALL
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ROTATING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MOST HEAVILY CLUSTERED
AROUND AREAS NORTH OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. SOME GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS, BUT OF EQUAL
CONCERN IS THE REDUCTIONS IN VIS DOWN TO ~1SM AND CIGS SENT
TUMBLING INTO LOW END MVFR OR EVEN IFR THAT HAPPEN UNDERNEATH SAID
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE IN BETWEEN THE SHOWERS. THIS SITUATION WILL RAPIDLY
CHANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS CONDITIONS BEGIN PLUMMETING
TOWARDS IFR IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, ENTER LIFR. AS A STRONG SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW AND WIND
ADVANCES INTO SE AK. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY, REACHING THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR IN FULL FORCE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. YAKUTAT WILL BE THE
BIGGEST EXCEPTION WITH CONDITIONS WHICH STARTED OFF WITH
SNOW SHOWER DRIVEN ACTIVITY DRIVING VIS AND CIGS DOWNWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A CHANGEOVER
TO RAIN IS INITIALLY LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED, WITH COLDER AIR
EVENTUALLY RETURNING IN FORCE. ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, AND FOR THESE
SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A BROAD LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING WITH IT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT, ISOLATED POCKETS UP TO
35KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY W TO SW WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY E TO NE. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL REMAIN MORE ON THE
UNSETTLED SIDE, WITH 8 TO 12 FT EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND, A STRONG LOW MOVES
UP FROM THE SOUTH.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS REMAIN DIVIDED ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR,
SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN FRESH AND STRONG BREEZE, WHILE NORTH OF
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, WEAKENING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN.
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A FRONT PUSHES INLAND, WHICH WILL ALSO RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING TOWARDS STRONG BREEZE FOR SOME LOCATIONS. STRONGEST
INNER CHANNEL WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS
PASSAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 2 TO
4 FT, 3 TO 5FT WITHIN LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ317-320>323-325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ318-
319.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ326-328.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-031-053-641>644-651-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...GFS/NM
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