314
FXAK67 PAJK 180547
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
947 PM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
NO MAJOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING DOWN TO
1/2 MILE OR LESS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SE AK.
SYNOPSIS
- A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP SENDING PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH PERIODS OF MELTING IN
SUNNY BREAKS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED AND
EXPANDED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- A STRONG LOW MAY MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND IMPACT THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST AS A LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF SENDS CONTINUES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. LOOKING AROUND THE AREA, SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES FREQUENTLY DROPPING TO 1SM AND AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE.
MAIN CAVEAT HOWEVER IS THAT SNOW IS HAVING A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING GIVEN MID MARCH DAY TIME HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR,
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SOUTHWARD TOWARDS PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
RATHER THAN CHASE THE SNOW SHOWERS, OPTED TO ISSUE LONGER DURATION
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH MORE
SPATIAL SPREAD IN ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER ORGANIZED BAND IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. FORECAST CHALLENGE GOING FORWARD ARE THAT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WIDELY VARIABLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREAS
DUE TO THE HIT OR MISS NATURE OF THE SHOWERS, HOWEVER, RATES AS
HIGH AS 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS THAT REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ALONG THE CAPE
FAIRWEATHER TO LISIANSKI STRAIT AREA. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. ANY CURRENT ADVISORIES COULD
BE UPGRADED TO SHORT-FUSE WINTER STORM WARNINGS IF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SAME AREA.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
PANHANDLE, BRINGING A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
LIKELY HEAVY SNOWFALL BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL SOME
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HINTING AT TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BARANOF COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND INLAND NE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED
AND COULD BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL BIG SNOW MAKER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND)
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS TO THE PANHANDLE WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN THE BERING SEA, COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND INTO THE LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE SHOWERS.
WITH THE BREAKS BETWEEN SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO RISE DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS WITH THE INCREASING
AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT BEING EXPERIENCED. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS DURING THE DAYTIME. POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WE CONTINUE TO
LOOK COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING DOWN TO IFR TO LIFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FROM ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.
MOST PLACES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FROM PASI
TO PAPG NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, PLACES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
COULD SEE RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LIGHTER
SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
BUT COULD BE A BIT STRONG UP TO 15KT FOR PAYA, PAHN AND PAGY.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS HAVE BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE INSIDE CHANNEL. THE ONE PLACE THAT CONTINUES
TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS IS OVER N LYNN CANAL. WINDS OVER N LYNN
CANAL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH NEAR TAIYA INLET. STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OVER STEPHENS PASSAGE FROM MIDWAY ISLAND TO FIVE
FINGER LIGHT HOUSE WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. OTHERWISE WINDS ACROSS
THE INNER CHANNELS REMAIN AROUND MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES, 10
TO 20 KTS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WAVES ACROSS STEPHENS PASSAGE,
CROSS SOUND AND OCEAN ENTRANCES.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A BROAD LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING WITH IT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 35
KTS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL BE PREDOMINATELY W TO SW WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL BE PREDOMINATELY E TO NE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TIMES OF
GUSTY WINDS AND VARIABLE WINDS AS THE BROAD LOW SENDS SHOWERS
THROUGH THE GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL REMAIN MORE
ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE, WITH 8 TO 12 FT EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY
SWELL CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND, A STRONG LOW
MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR AKZ317>321-
323>326.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ322.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM AKDT
THURSDAY FOR AKZ322.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ322.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ328.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031-053-641>644-651-661>664-671.
UPDATE...DS
SHORT TERM...NM/EAB
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...SF/DS
MARINE...EAB
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