144
FXAK67 PAJK 181256
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
456 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
- A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP SENDING PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH PERIODS OF MELTING IN
SUNNY BREAKS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- A STRONG LOW MAY MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND IMPACT THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
THE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY IDENTICAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF ANCHORED BY A
STATIONARY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
FREQUENTLY DROP TO 1SM AND SOME ARE DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/4SM. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING THE WEAKER IMPULSES WITHIN THE BROADER
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS, OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH DAYSHIFT'S THINKING,
AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OUT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
SUMNER STRAIT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES. SOME ISOLATED LOCALES
MAY RECEIVE LESS OR MORE, DEPENDING ON HOW SHELTERED THEY ARE
FROM THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN. FRIDAY ITSELF SHOULD FEATURE A
DIMINISHING TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE, AT LEAST INITIALLY, ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL PROVE TO BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL
BEGIN SWEEPING THROUGH SE AK SHORTLY THEREAFTER, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST DISCUSSION.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL RECEIVE LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, DRIVEN BY SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ONSHORE
FLOW CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING
OF THE MARCH SUN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND) LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE PANHANDLE
WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN THE
BERING SEA, COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND INTO THE LOW POSITIONED OVER THE GULF. THIS
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE SHOWERS. WITH THE BREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO RISE DURING THE
DAY TIME HOURS WITH THE INCREASING AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT BEING
EXPERIENCED. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
DURING THE DAYTIME. POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WE CONTINUE TO
LOOK COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
AVIATION
/ THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THE GENERAL PATTERN OF A
LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH SHOWERS MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND NE GULF COAST. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THE MORE
ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF, SHOWS WIDESPREAD OPEN
CELL SHOWERS AND THEY ARE TRACKING IN FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES. WITH SHOWER, FLIGHT WEATHER CAN BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM
VFR DOWN TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY IN SNOW. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS A
AN IMPULSE WORKING ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO AM ANTICIPATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT WILL
REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE INSIDE CHANNELS. THE ONE PLACE THAT
CONTINUES TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS IS OVER N LYNN CANAL. WINDS OVER
N LYNN CANAL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH NEAR TAIYA
INLET. STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN OVER STEPHENS PASSAGE FROM MIDWAY
ISLAND TO FIVE FINGER LIGHT HOUSE WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.
OTHERWISE WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS REMAIN AROUND MODERATE
TO STRONG BREEZES, 10 TO 20 KTS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN
AROUND 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS STEPHENS PASSAGE, CROSS SOUND AND OCEAN ENTRANCES.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A BROAD LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK, BRINGING
WITH IT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY W TO SW WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY E TO NE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TIMES OF GUSTY
WINDS AND VARIABLE WINDS AS THE BROAD LOW SENDS SHOWERS THROUGH THE
GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL REMAIN MORE ON THE
UNSETTLED SIDE, WITH 8 TO 12 FT EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND, A STRONG LOW MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ317>321-
323>326.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ322.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR AKZ322.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031-034-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...EAB/GFS
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