567
FXAK67 PAJK 181831
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1031 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE TO INCLUDE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP SENDING PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH PERIODS OF MELTING IN
SUNNY BREAKS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- A STRONG LOW MAY MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND IMPACT THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
THE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY IDENTICAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF ANCHORED BY A
STATIONARY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
FREQUENTLY DROP TO 1SM AND SOME ARE DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/4SM.
GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING THE WEAKER IMPULSES WITHIN THE
BROADER AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS, OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH DAYSHIFT'S
THINKING, AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OUT ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES. SOME ISOLATED
LOCALES MAY RECEIVE LESS OR MORE, DEPENDING ON HOW SHELTERED THEY
ARE FROM THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN. FRIDAY ITSELF SHOULD FEATURE A
DIMINISHING TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE, AT LEAST INITIALLY, ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL PROVE TO BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL
BEGIN SWEEPING THROUGH SE AK SHORTLY THEREAFTER, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST DISCUSSION.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL RECEIVE LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, DRIVEN BY SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MARCH SUN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND) LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE
PANHANDLE WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN THE BERING SEA, COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND INTO THE LOW POSITIONED
OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE SHOWERS. WITH THE
BREAKS BETWEEN SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
RISE DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS WITH THE INCREASING AMOUNT OF
DAYLIGHT BEING EXPERIENCED. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS DURING THE DAYTIME. POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WE CONTINUE
TO LOOK COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING/
ONSHORE FLOW FROM A LOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD, SENDING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE IS COLD ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW WITH THESE SHOWERS, THOUGH
THE SOUTHERN HALF IS SITTING JUST AT OR ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY SEE
RAIN MIX IN. DUE TO THE PATH OF THESE SHOWERS AND THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE, EVEN WITH KETCHIKAN AND KLAWOCK SITTING AROUND
34 TO 36 DEGREES. LOOKING AT SATELLITE, THE MORE ENHANCED SHOWERS
SEEM TO BE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS, VIS MAY DROP TO 1 SM
OR LESS WITH CIGS AOB 1000 FT, WITH MANY LOCATIONS JUMPING BETWEEN
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. IN BETWEEN SHOWERS, LOW BROKEN CIGS MAY
KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND, BUT A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE INTERMITTENT VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE DAY. BASED ON
WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALREADY THROUGH THE MORNING, THERE LOOKS TO
BE A VERY LOW BROKEN LAYER AND A MID-LEVEL OVERCAST LAYER THAT
MOVES THROUGH WITH MOST SHOWERS, WITH THE OVERCAST LAYER OPENING
UP TO MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL BROKEN LAYERS IN BETWEEN SHOWERS.
FOR NOW, TAFS HAVE BEEN WRITTEN TO REFLECT THE OVERALL VFR TO
MVFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS WITH MULTIPLE TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT TO INDICATE HEAVIER SHOWER POTENTIAL. EXPECT
PERIODIC AMENDMENTS IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS TO ADD TEMPOS FOR THESE
BANDS OF SHOWERS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH MAY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE PANHANDLE.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE INSIDE CHANNELS. THE ONE PLACE THAT CONTINUES
TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS IS OVER N LYNN CANAL. WINDS OVER N LYNN
CANAL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH NEAR TAIYA INLET.
STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN OVER STEPHENS PASSAGE FROM MIDWAY ISLAND TO
FIVE FINGER LIGHT HOUSE WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. OTHERWISE WINDS
ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS REMAIN AROUND MODERATE TO STRONG
BREEZES, 10 TO 20 KTS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2 TO
4 FT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WAVES ACROSS STEPHENS
PASSAGE, CROSS SOUND AND OCEAN ENTRANCES.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A BROAD LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING WITH IT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 35
KTS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL BE PREDOMINATELY W TO SW WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL BE PREDOMINATELY E TO NE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TIMES OF
GUSTY WINDS AND VARIABLE WINDS AS THE BROAD LOW SENDS SHOWERS
THROUGH THE GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL REMAIN MORE
ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE, WITH 8 TO 12 FT EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY
SWELL CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND, A STRONG LOW
MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ317>321-
323>326.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ322.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR AKZ322.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031-034-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAB/GFS
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