026
FXAK67 PAJK 182340
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
340 PM AKDT WED MAR 18 2026
SHORT TERM
SHOWERS SHOWERS AND MORE SHOWERS ARE THE MAIN THEME
OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW AS COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED FROM
WESTERN ALASKA ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE
WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA RANGE FROM -6C IN THE SOUTH TO
-10C IN THE NORTH WHICH IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO ENCOURAGE SNOW
AT SEA LEVEL EVEN IF AIR TEMPERATURES AT SEA LEVEL REACH INTO THE
MID 30S F. THAT HAS BEEN PANNING OUT WITH MAINLY SNOW FOR THE
NORTH AND A MIX THIS AFTERNOON FROM FREDERICK SOUND SOUTHWARD.
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN WILDLY VARIABLE WITH UP TO 6.4 INCHES AT
YAKUTAT THIS MORNING OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES IN
OTHER AREAS.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND SHOW OPEN CELL CONVECTION
CHARACTERISTICS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER THERE ARE A FEW
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND MESO LOWS THAT ARE EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL
FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF MORE ORGANIZED, INTENSE, AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE WILL BE AIMED AT THE NE GULF COAST
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED (YAKUTAT) OR EXTENDED (PELICAN) FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 6 INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THOSE AREAS. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE HAVE BEEN LEFT AS IS WITH 3 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS OVER ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THOSE AREAS.
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE LESS FREQUENT AND LESS INTENSE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE, BUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE STAYING BELOW 20 KT FOR MOST AREAS, HOWEVER
THE VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING UP WINDS AT
TIMES. THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS LOOKING TO BE THE STRONGEST SUCH
INCREASE AS AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
WAKE OF A NORTHWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE CAUSES INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. WINDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND
25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SUCH AS LYNN CANAL AND
STEPHENS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS THAN USUAL AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.
LONG TERM
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS TO THE PANHANDLE WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN THE BERING SEA, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND INTO
THE LOW POSITIONED OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE
SHOWERS. WITH THE BREAKS BETWEEN SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO RISE DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS WITH THE
INCREASING AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT BEING EXPERIENCED. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS DURING THE DAYTIME. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONE THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW REMAINING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS. ONE CONCERN THOUGH IS WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE, ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LIMITED WHILE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW.
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WE CONTINUE TO
LOOK COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE IS COLD ENOUGH TO SEE CONSISTENT SNOW, THOUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HALF IS SITTING JUST AT OR ABOVE FREEZING
AND MAY SEE RAIN MIX IN. DUE TO THE PATH OF THESE SHOWERS AND THE
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, SNOW HAS BEEN TRYING TO REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE, EVEN WITH KETCHIKAN AND KLAWOCK
SITTING AROUND 37 TO 39 DEGREES. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE OVER
THE PANHANDLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, KEEPING ALL SITES SNOW. DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS, VIS MAY DROP TO 1 SM OR LESS WITH CIGS AOB 1000
FT, WITH MANY LOCATIONS JUMPING BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS.
IN BETWEEN SHOWERS, LOW BROKEN CIGS MAY KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND, BUT A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE INTERMITTENT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS RETURN PERIODICALLY THROUGH
THE DAY.
BASED ON SATELLITE, THE MORE ENHANCED SHOWERS SEEM TO BE TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
YAKUTAT HAS BEEN SEEING RELATIVELY CONSISTENT BREAKS AROUND EVERY
2 TO 3 HOURS, IN BETWEEN VERY STRONG POCKETS OF SHOWERS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUALLY DIRECT THESE
SHOWERS WITH LOW CIGS AROUND 700 FT ONSHORE, BRINGING VIS DOWN TO
AROUND 1/2 SM. THERE ARE STILL HEAVY SHOWERS SITTING OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PANHANDLE WHICH HAVE JUST PUSHED OUT OF
GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU, BUT MAY LINGER IN HAINES AND SKAGWAY FOR
LONGER. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHORT BREAK BEFORE A LARGER BAND OF
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
SITKA IS EXPECTED TO CARRY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WITH GUSTY WINDS
NORTH INTO GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE STILL HAS LESS IMPACTFUL SHOWERS MOVING
OVER, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LOW FEW LAYERS WITH AN OVERCAST
LAYER AROUND 4000 FT. KLAWOCK HAS A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING
HEAVIER SHOWERS BEING ON THE COAST, THOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL HAVE HAD
MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A LOWER OVERCAST LAYER IS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WHICH MAY
LIMIT HEAVIEST SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING.
FOR NOW, TAFS HAVE BEEN WRITTEN TO REFLECT THE OVERALL VFR TO
MVFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS WITH MULTIPLE TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT TO INDICATE HEAVIER SHOWER POTENTIAL. EXPECT
PERIODIC AMENDMENTS IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS TO ADD TEMPOS ASW HEAVIER
BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH MAY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS...MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION IS LYNN CANAL THAT HAS NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN
TO NEAR POINT COUVERDEN THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY 20 KT OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS AND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
A SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. LYNN CANAL IS EXPECTED TO
SHOW A SWITCH FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY SOMETIME LATE THIS
EVENING AS A SOMEWHAT WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FLIPS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE CANAL TO MORE SOUTHERLY THEN NORTHERLY
(THOUGH THE SOUTHERLY MAY NOT REACH SKAGWAY AND TAIYA INLET UNTIL
THURSDAY). A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A PUSH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KT IN PLACES LIKE LYNN CANAL, AND
STEPHENS PASSAGE AS THAT FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY ALSO BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE GUSTY WINDS AS INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS INCREASE
LOCAL WINDS BRIEFLY AS THEY MOVE THROUGH AN AREA. SEAS WILL MAINLY
BE 4 FT OR LESS, BUT COULD BE UP TO 6 OR 7 FT DURING THE TIMES OF
HIGHER WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE OR NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES FROM SW
SWELL FROM THE GULF.
GULF WATERS...GENERALLY SW TO W FLOW AROUND 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE GULF TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE OVER AN AREA. THIS WILL BE THE THEME
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH VARIOUS SHORT WAVE CAUSING INCREASED
WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KT IN VARIOUS AREAS. THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL
BE THURSDAY WITH AN AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT SW WINDS EXPECTED FROM
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF SPREADING TO THE GULF COAST FROM CAPE
DECISION TO YAKUTAT BY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY
NIGHT. SEAS ARE AROUND 10 TO 12 FT WITH A SW SWELL OF 10 FT
(PERIOD 12 SEC). SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 8 TO
14 FT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SW SWELL REMAINING A
FEATURE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR AKZ317.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
AKZ317.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ318>321-
323>326.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ322.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>035-053-641>644-651-
652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAL
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