839
FXAK67 PAJK 191243
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
443 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP SENDING PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW, ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH PERIODS OF MELTING IN SUNNY BREAKS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND INTO THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
AS THE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY IDENTICAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF ANCHORED BY
A STATIONARY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
FREQUENTLY DROP TO 1SM AND SOME ARE DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/4SM. A
STRONGER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER COMPLEX WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, AND WILL BRING WITH IT GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES, ALONGSIDE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW. LARGER BREAKS BETWEEN
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, AS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF MEANDERS FURTHER WEST AND BEGINS WEAKENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A STRONG BAND OF SNOW MOVES UP FROM THE SW AND ENTERS
SE AK. OR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS TO THE PANHANDLE WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN THE BERING SEA, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND INTO
THE LOW POSITIONED OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE
SHOWERS. WITH THE BREAKS BETWEEN SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO RISE DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS WITH THE
INCREASING AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT BEING EXPERIENCED. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS DURING THE DAYTIME. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONE THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW REMAINING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS. ONE CONCERN THOUGH IS WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE, ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LIMITED WHILE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW.
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WE CONTINUE TO
LOOK COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
AVIATION
/ THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT / ONSHORE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE IN THE MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
GULF COAST ARE IN THE 1300 TO 3000 FEET CEILING RANGE AND
VISIBILITY IN SHOWER WHILE WIDELY VARIABLE ARE 3 TO 5 MILES BUT
OCCASIONALLY AS LOWS AS 1/4 MILE, ESPECIALLY IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDER, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
SLIM CHANCE. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHILE HAVING SLIGHTLY BETTER
WEATHER WILL ALSO HAVE SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE INSIDE CHANNELS. THE ONE PLACE THAT CONTINUES
TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS IS OVER N LYNN CANAL, WHICH HAS
SUCCESSFULLY KEPT THE SOUTHERLY WIND SURGE FROM ADVANCING OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CHANGE ON THURSDAY, AS AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD RELAX THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO
ENABLE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO FINALLY PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAIN OVER STEPHENS PASSAGE FROM MIDWAY ISLAND TO FIVE FINGER
LIGHTHOUSE WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. OTHERWISE WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES, 15 TO 25 KTS, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
BEFORE DIMINISHING DOWN TO 1 TO 20 KT THURSDAY NIGHT IN ITS WAKE.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WAVES ACROSS STEPHENS PASSAGE, CROSS
SOUND AND OCEAN ENTRANCES.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A BROAD LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING WITH IT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 35
KTS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL BE PREDOMINATELY W TO SW WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL BE PREDOMINATELY E TO NE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TIMES OF
GUSTY WINDS AND VARIABLE WINDS AS THE BROAD LOW SENDS SHOWERS
THROUGH THE GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL REMAIN MORE
ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE, WITH 8 TO 12 FT EXPECTED WITH SWELL TURNING
MORE SW THROUGH THURSDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, A STRONG LOW MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AKZ317.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ317.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ318>321-
323-324-326.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ322.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>035-053-641>644-651-
652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...GFS
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