225
FXAK67 PAJK 200558 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
958 PM AKDT THU MAR 19 2026
AVIATION UPDATE
FOR THE 06Z TAFS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL GULFAK THIS EVENING. WHILE THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY, WE STILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
DROPPING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2-1SM AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM SITKA TO JUST SOUTH OF PETERSBURG. SO, FOR MOST IT
WILL BE A MVFR DOWN TO IFR FORECAST PERIODICALLY FROM NOW UNTIL
12Z, THEN PERHAPS A BREAK IN THE HIGHER COVERAGES OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO IFR (BRIEFLY LIFR) AT TIMES. TO
THE SOUTH, KLAWOCK AND KETCHIKAN WILL SEE THE LEAST COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGES OF
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. 05/GARMON
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 PM AKDT THU MAR 19 2026
SHORT TERM
S TO SW FLOW WITH COPIOUS SHOWER ACTIVITY (PLUS
SOME EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES) CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE PANHANDLE TODAY
THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TREND INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE MORE SNOW POSSIBLY COMES FOR THE WEEKEND. ON THE
SHORT WAVE SIDE OF THINGS, ONE SUCH WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE RIGHT NOW WHILE THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER ONE
STRETCHING FROM ICY BAY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 57N BEFORE BENDING W. A
LOT OF THE SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE SHORT WAVES ARE OPEN CELL
CONVECTION WITH A MORE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE WHILE THE SHOWERS
IN THE SHORT WAVES ARE SHOWING A MORE CLOSED CELL CONVECTIVE
NATURE WHICH SHOWS IN THE SURFACE OBS WHERE THE MORE INTENSE
SHOWERS HAVE DROPPED VISIBILITY TO LESS THEN A HALF MILE AT TIMES
IN THE NORTH.
INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY ON FRIDAY. THE MORE INTENSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY BE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW
REMAINING SHORT WAVES TO CONSIDER. WE STILL HAVE THE REMAINING
SHOWERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THAT
IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS FRIDAY. BOTH OF THESE HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO DROP AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AS THEY MOVE THROUGH (JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA). HOWEVER, OVERALL THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE MOST SNOW TO BE TONIGHT WITH LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS OVERALL ON
FRIDAY. IN LIGHT OF THIS HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES UNCHANGED, THOUGH I CAN NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED
AREAS RECEIVING MORE SNOW FALL THAN THAT EVEN INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AS THE SOUTHERLY PUSH BEHIND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE HAS
REACHED THE AREA. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 40 MPH IN SKAGWAY, YAKUTAT
AND EVEN SITKA. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST ALL THAT LONG WITH
MOST OF THESE WINDS DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. OTHER WISE THERE IS
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME INCREASED WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THEN
(MAINLY 20 KT S WINDS). WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE START TO SEE EFFECTS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
LONG TERM
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA DOWN INTO THE GULF, SITTING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
PANHANDLE, CONTINUES TO ENABLE THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO SE AK. THE COLD
AIR COMING DOWN INTO THE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE LOW
CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, ALONGSIDE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WITH
BANDS OF VORTICITY, ALLOW FOR THE MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A MORE
ORGANIZED WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FROM S TO N AS A
SURFACE GALE FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLE FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
COASTLINE SATURDAY, PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY BEHIND A DECENT WAVE OF SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS SOON AFTER THE FRONT PASSES,
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOR THESE SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COASTLINE UP
TO SITKA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME MORE UNIFORM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO
THE MORE SHOWERY PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING, WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS, MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE MORE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. THE AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM THIS FRONT AND THE FOLLOWING SHOWERS INTO
MONDAY REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE COAST AND SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE FOR THIS REASON. WILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ONSHORE
MOISTURE FLOW AND THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST, THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE MAY NOT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH ACCUMULATION
OVERALL EVEN WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT STAY COOLER.
WHILE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN AS
WELL, ALLOWING FOR SOME HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXING DURING THE
DAY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS LOOKING TO SEE MORE OF
A CLEARING TREND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS OUTFLOW BEGINS TO SET UP,
HOWEVER THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
ABOUT HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUPPORT A DRIER SOLUTION IN THE
NORTH, WITH ELEVATED OUTFLOW WINDS AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES IN MORE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD. THE OTHER SOLUTION IS FOR THE LOW
TO REMAIN FURTHER WEST AND NOT BREAK DOWN OR WEAKEN YET, ALLOWING
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER MORE ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE THAN
STAYING TO THE SOUTH, KEEPING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MORE
OF THE PANHANDLE THAN JUST THE SOUTHERN HALF. OVERALL JUST SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR IF THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL HAPPEN AND WHEN IT WILL
HAPPEN NEXT WEEK, IF IT WILL BE AS SOON AS MONDAY/TUESDAY OR IF THE
CURRENT PATTERN WILL HOLD OUT LONGER.
AVIATION.../THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL RATES THAT REDUCE VIS TO 2 SM OR LESS. HEAVIER SHOWERS
MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR TO LIFR WITH CIGS AOB 2000 FT AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KTS. IN BETWEEN SHOWERS, VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AND SKIES MAY OPEN UP TO SCATTERED OR BROKEN CIGS BETWEEN
3000 AND 6000 FT. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
HEAVIER POCKETS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE MORE ELONGATED BREAKS GOING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWER STILL HAS
POTENTIAL TO MOVE IN. THE LOW END OF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.
CURRENTLY, ABOUT HALF OF THE PANHANDLE IS EXPERIENCING CONDITION-
LOWERING SHOWERS. HAINES HAS BEEN SEEING VERY CONSISTENT MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING VIS DOWN
TO 1/4 SM AT TIMES WITH LIFR CIGS. THIS AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS HAS
JUST MADE IT TO SKAGWAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING CONDITIONS DOWN
TO LIFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL HAVE
WARMED UP ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH RAIN, THOUGH THIS
IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SWITCH BACK TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFF THE COAST
OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER AND MOVING NORTH, THOUGH THESE LARGER CELLS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE. TAFS HAVE BEEN WRITTEN TO
REFLECT THE OVERALL VFR TO MVFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS WITH
MULTIPLE TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT TO INDICATE
HEAVIER SHOWER POTENTIAL. EXPECT PERIODIC AMENDMENTS IN CERTAIN
LOCATIONS TO ADD TEMPOS AS HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOP.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS
BEHIND A SHORT WAVE MOVES N THROUGH THE AREA. LYNN CANAL, CROSS
SOUND, AND STEPHENS PASSAGE ARE ALL SHOWING S WIND OF 25 TO 30 KT.
THOSE WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LYNN CANAL
HANGING ON TO 25 KT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 1 AM. ANOTHER AREA OF
STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS MIDDAY
FRIDAY (UP TO 20 KT THIS TIME) FROM A SECOND SHORT WAVE THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME. FINALLY WINDS WILL BE STARTING TO
INCREASE YET AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (THIS TIME UP TO 25 TO 30 KT
FOR MOST AREAS (EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH) AS WE START TO SEE EFFECTS
FROM THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND MOVING IN. NEEDLESS TO SAY THAT SEAS
WILL BE UP AND DOWN AS WIND INCREASE AND THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING HIGHER THEN AROUND 7 FT FOR
MOST AREAS THOUGH.
GULF WATERS...MOSTLY 25 KT WINDS OR LESS AROUND THE GULF FROM A S
TO SW DIRECTION WHICH WILL BE PERSISTENT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MAKING THINGS MORE COMPLEX AS THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS ARE CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF INCREASED GUSTS AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THE VARIOUS SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW ARE BRINGING SOME AREAS OF HIGHER WINDS TO 30 KT IN
SOME LOCATIONS. MAINLY THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
FAR SE GULF OFF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE
AROUND 8 TO 12 FT (SWELL IS AROUND 9 FT OUT OF THE SW WITH A
PERIOD OF 10 SEC) AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH
OVERALL EXCEPT FOR THE SWELL GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 4 FT
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ317-322.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ318>321-
323>326.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
AVIATION UPDATE...GARMON
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAL
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