378
FXAK67 PAJK 201431
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
631 AM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-ANOTHER BAND OF STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BUT
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED IN SOME LOCATIONS BY DAYTIME HEATING.
-A STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING MORE
SNOW, WIND, AND RAIN.
-ADDITIONAL FRONTS MOVE UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
AT LONG LAST, THE PATTERN IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO
CHANGE. AFTER ONE FINAL DAY TODAY (FRIDAY) OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH SE AK, THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO A MORE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SETUP. ALTHOUGH ONE FINAL
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH, THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF HAS BEGUN TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE SW
GULF, AS ITS PARENT TROUGH BEGINS TO TREND TOWARDS A NEGATIVE
TILT, RESULTING IN STEERING FLOW TAKING ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION IN SE AK.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS IS WHERE THE GOOD NEWS COMES TO AN END
BECAUSE THE NEW PATTERN WILL ALSO BE BRINGING MORE SNOW, ALBEIT IN
ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEMS INSTEAD OF BANDS OF SHOWERS. THE FIRST
OF THESE WAVES WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ALONGSIDE STRONG WINDS AND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE COULD
POTENTIALLY RECEIVE 4-9 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
BIG QUESTION IS DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE COOLER AIR ALONG AND LOW
THICKNESS VALUES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING
SNOW, DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT GROUND LEVEL
DOING THEIR UTMOST TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING, CONSEQUENTLY IMPINGING
ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. IN AREAS WHERE RATES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
ENABLE WIDESPREAD SNOW-MELT COOLING, MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY. IN AREAS WHERE RATES AREN'T HEAVY
ENOUGH, THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE, AND LARGELY
LIMITED TO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, AS SNOW MELTS ON CONTACT WITH
SURFACES.
THIS WAVE WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY, BEFORE DEPARTING AND
LEAVING SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE IN A BRIEF 'LULL' BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES UP IN TIME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION,
SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
LONG TERM
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA DOWN INTO THE GULF, SITTING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
PANHANDLE, CONTINUES TO ENABLE THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO SE AK. THE COLD
AIR COMING DOWN INTO THE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE LOW
CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, ALONGSIDE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WITH
BANDS OF VORTICITY, ALLOW FOR THE MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A MORE
ORGANIZED WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FROM S TO N AS A
SURFACE GALE FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLE FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
COASTLINE SATURDAY, PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY BEHIND A DECENT WAVE OF SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS SOON AFTER THE FRONT PASSES,
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOR THESE SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COASTLINE UP
TO SITKA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME MORE UNIFORM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO
THE MORE SHOWERY PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING, WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS, MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE MORE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. THE AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM THIS FRONT AND THE FOLLOWING SHOWERS INTO
MONDAY REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE COAST AND SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE FOR THIS REASON. WILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ONSHORE
MOISTURE FLOW AND THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST, THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE MAY NOT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH ACCUMULATION
OVERALL EVEN WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT STAY COOLER.
WHILE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN AS
WELL, ALLOWING FOR SOME HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXING DURING THE
DAY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS LOOKING TO SEE MORE OF
A CLEARING TREND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS OUTFLOW BEGINS TO SET UP,
HOWEVER THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
ABOUT HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUPPORT A DRIER SOLUTION IN THE
NORTH, WITH ELEVATED OUTFLOW WINDS AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES IN MORE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD. THE OTHER SOLUTION IS FOR THE LOW
TO REMAIN FURTHER WEST AND NOT BREAK DOWN OR WEAKEN YET, ALLOWING
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER MORE ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE THAN
STAYING TO THE SOUTH, KEEPING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MORE
OF THE PANHANDLE THAN JUST THE SOUTHERN HALF. OVERALL JUST SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR IF THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL HAPPEN AND WHEN IT WILL
HAPPEN NEXT WEEK, IF IT WILL BE AS SOON AS MONDAY/TUESDAY OR IF THE
CURRENT PATTERN WILL HOLD OUT LONGER.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO STREAM SW TO NE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WE'VE BEEN
CONTINUING THE TREND OF QUICK DROPS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR VISBYS AND
MVFR LEVEL CIGS WITHIN THE PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. MOVING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, ANTICIPATING THE SAME TRENDS, PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO TRACK INLAND WITH CIGS AOA 4000FT. BRIEF PERIODS OF
LIFR/IFR VISBYS AS LOW AS 1/2SM ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. TRIED TO TIME THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS, ONE CURRENTLY
ALONG THE W COAST OF BARANOF WILL SLIDE E THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING, PUSHING INTO HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND JUNEAU BETWEEN 18Z TO
00Z THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONGER MORE
ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY
06 TO 09Z THIS EVENING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH REDUCED VISBYS DOWN TO IFR
ONCE MORE.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AROUND 10KTS OR LESS,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 20KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT
WILL SEE LOW LEVEL SE-LY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z ACROSS
THE S PANHANDLE UP TO AROUND 30 TO 35KTS.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TREND BACK UPWARDS AS ANOTHER
AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS
MIDDAY FRIDAY (UP TO 20 KT THIS TIME) FROM A SECOND SHORT WAVE
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME. FINALLY WINDS WILL BE
STARTING TO INCREASE YET AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (THIS TIME UP TO
25 TO 35 KT FOR MOST AREAS (EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH) AS WE START TO
SEE EFFECTS FROM THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND MOVING IN. NEEDLESS TO SAY
THAT SEAS WILL BE UP AND DOWN AS WIND INCREASE AND THEN DECREASE
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING HIGHER THEN
AROUND 7 FT FOR MOST AREAS THOUGH, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
GULF WATERS...MOSTLY 25 KT WINDS OR LESS EARLY FRIDAY AROUND THE
GULF FROM A S TO SW DIRECTION GIVE WAY TO S TO SE WINDS REACHING
GALE FORCE 35 TO 40 KT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE. ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTH LATE SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOW'S SOUTHERN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MAKING THINGS MORE COMPLEX AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF INCREASED GUSTS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.
SEAS ARE AROUND 8 TO 12 FT (SWELL IS AROUND 9 FT OUT OF THE SW
WITH A PERIOD OF 10 SEC), AND WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS 10 TO 14 FEET.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR AKZ317>327.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
AKZ320>323.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ328>330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-644-661-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>036-053-642-643-651-652-
662-663-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GFS
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