333
FXAK67 PAJK 201827
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1027 AM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE TO INCLUDE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER BAND OF STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BUT
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED IN SOME LOCATIONS BY DAYTIME
HEATING.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING MORE
SNOW, WIND, AND RAIN.
- ADDITIONAL FRONTS MOVE UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
AT LONG LAST, THE PATTERN IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO
CHANGE. AFTER ONE FINAL DAY TODAY (FRIDAY) OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH SE AK, THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO A MORE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SETUP. ALTHOUGH ONE FINAL
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH, THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF HAS BEGUN TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE SW
GULF, AS ITS PARENT TROUGH BEGINS TO TREND TOWARDS A NEGATIVE
TILT, RESULTING IN STEERING FLOW TAKING ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION IN SE AK.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS IS WHERE THE GOOD NEWS COMES TO AN END
BECAUSE THE NEW PATTERN WILL ALSO BE BRINGING MORE SNOW, ALBEIT IN
ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEMS INSTEAD OF BANDS OF SHOWERS. THE FIRST
OF THESE WAVES WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ALONGSIDE STRONG WINDS AND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE COULD
POTENTIALLY RECEIVE 4-9 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
BIG QUESTION IS DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE COOLER AIR ALONG AND LOW
THICKNESS VALUES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING
SNOW, DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT GROUND LEVEL
DOING THEIR UTMOST TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING, CONSEQUENTLY IMPINGING
ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. IN AREAS WHERE RATES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
ENABLE WIDESPREAD SNOW-MELT COOLING, MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY. IN AREAS WHERE RATES AREN'T HEAVY
ENOUGH, THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE, AND LARGELY
LIMITED TO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, AS SNOW MELTS ON CONTACT WITH
SURFACES.
THIS WAVE WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY, BEFORE DEPARTING
AND LEAVING SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE IN A BRIEF 'LULL' BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES UP IN TIME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
LONG TERM
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA DOWN INTO THE GULF, SITTING JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE PANHANDLE, CONTINUES TO ENABLE THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO SE AK.
THE COLD AIR COMING DOWN INTO THE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO
THE LOW CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, ALONGSIDE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WITH BANDS OF VORTICITY, ALLOW FOR THE MORE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND. THERE
WILL BE A MORE ORGANIZED WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
FROM S TO N AS A SURFACE GALE FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A
FRONT INTO THE COASTLINE SATURDAY, PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO THE NIGHT. THIS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY BEHIND A DECENT WAVE
OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS SOON AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES, WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOR THESE
SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND OUTER COASTLINE UP TO SITKA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME MORE UNIFORM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED
TO THE MORE SHOWERY PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING, WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS, MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE MORE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. THE AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM THIS FRONT AND THE FOLLOWING SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE COAST AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FOR THIS REASON. WILE THE MAJORITY OF THE
ONSHORE MOISTURE FLOW AND THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST, THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE MAY NOT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH
ACCUMULATION OVERALL EVEN WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT STAY COOLER.
WHILE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN AS
WELL, ALLOWING FOR SOME HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXING DURING
THE DAY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS LOOKING
TO SEE MORE OF A CLEARING TREND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS OUTFLOW
BEGINS TO SET UP, HOWEVER THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN. ABOUT HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
SUPPORT A DRIER SOLUTION IN THE NORTH, WITH ELEVATED OUTFLOW WINDS
AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES IN MORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD.
THE OTHER SOLUTION IS FOR THE LOW TO REMAIN FURTHER WEST AND NOT
BREAK DOWN OR WEAKEN YET, ALLOWING FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER
MORE ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE THAN STAYING TO THE SOUTH, KEEPING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MORE OF THE PANHANDLE THAN JUST
THE SOUTHERN HALF. OVERALL JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IF THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL HAPPEN AND WHEN IT WILL HAPPEN NEXT WEEK, IF
IT WILL BE AS SOON AS MONDAY/TUESDAY OR IF THE CURRENT PATTERN
WILL HOLD OUT LONGER.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
SW TO NE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
PREVAILING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AOA
6000 FT AND LIGHT WINDS. AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER AN AREA, VIS
WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH MVFR LEVEL CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000
FT AND THE OCCASIONAL 20 TO 25 KT WIND GUST. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND
OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
PERIODICALLY FROM SITKA TO PETERSBURG AND NORTHWARD. THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ALONG NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND POTENTIALLY
PUSHING INTO JUNEAU. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERIODICALLY DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. A SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER COAST
BY MIDDAY TODAY, THOUGH THESE SHOWERS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE MORE
SCATTERED THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. TRIED TO TIME
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS,
ONE CURRENTLY ALONG THE W COAST OF BARANOF WILL SLIDE E THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING, PUSHING INTO HOONAH, GUSTAVUS, AND JUNEAU
BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY 06 TO 09Z THIS
EVENING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA WITH REDUCED VISBYS DOWN TO IFR ONCE MORE. WHILE THIS
LOOKS TO START OFF AS SNOW, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO WARM
UP ENOUGH FOR THIS TO SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL ATTEMPT TO WARM UP TO POTENTIALLY THE MID TO HIGH 30S DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY, WHICH MAY MAKE PRECIPITATION MORE
OF A MIX. CURRENTLY THINKING THIS WILL STAY PREDOMINANTLY SNOW IN
MOST LOCATIONS, BUT VIS MAY BE HEAVILY RESTRICTED AS AS HEAVY SNOW
BECOMES MORE DENSE WITH THE ATTEMPTED WARM UP. NO SIGNIFICANT
LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT WILL SEE LOW LEVEL SE-LY
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z ACROSS THE S PANHANDLE UP TO
AROUND 30 TO 35KTS.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TREND BACK UPWARDS AS
ANOTHER AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS MIDDAY FRIDAY (UP TO 20 KT THIS TIME) FROM A SECOND SHORT
WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME. FINALLY WINDS WILL
BE STARTING TO INCREASE YET AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (THIS TIME UP
TO 25 TO 35 KT FOR MOST AREAS (EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH) AS WE START
TO SEE EFFECTS FROM THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND MOVING IN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY THAT SEAS WILL BE UP AND DOWN AS WIND INCREASE AND THEN
DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING HIGHER
THEN AROUND 7 FT FOR MOST AREAS THOUGH, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OCEAN ENTRANCES.
GULF WATERS...MOSTLY 25 KT WINDS OR LESS EARLY FRIDAY AROUND THE
GULF FROM A S TO SW DIRECTION GIVE WAY TO S TO SE WINDS REACHING
GALE FORCE 35 TO 40 KT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE. ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTH LATE SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOW'S SOUTHERN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MAKING THINGS MORE COMPLEX AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF INCREASED GUSTS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.
SEAS ARE AROUND 8 TO 12 FT (SWELL IS AROUND 9 FT OUT OF THE SW
WITH A PERIOD OF 10 SEC), AND WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS 10 TO 14 FEET.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR AKZ317>327.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
AKZ320>323.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ328>330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-644-661-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>036-053-642-643-651-652-
662-663-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...GFS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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