947
FXAK67 PAJK 211804
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1004 AM AKDT SAT MAR 21 2026
UPDATE
18Z AVIATION UPDATE
A COMPLEX OF LOWS AND A FRONT IS MOVING ASHORE ALONG OUR COAST AS
OF 18Z, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, WITH CIGS AT OR BELOW 2500 FT WITH THIS
FRONT. COMPLEXITY IN THE SOUTH IS RAIN VS SNOW WHICH WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT VISIBILITY; ANTICIPATE IFR SNOW TO MIX DOWN
AT TIMES UNDER HEAVIER BANDS, WITH IFR SNOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING.
LLWS IS ALSO A THREAT SATURDAY WITH A STOUT BAND OF SOUTHEASTERLY
40 TO 50 KNOT WINDS AT 2500 FT, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL FEATURE.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 603 AM AKDT
SYNOPSIS...
- WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE COASTAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST OF TWO
FRONTS PUSHES INTO THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE ARE NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
SATURDAY.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR HAINES WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 9 INCHES.
- MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
GREATER.
SHORT TERM.../TODAY AND TONIGHT/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THINKING OR EXPECTED
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE
WAS EXTENDING THE CURRENT ADVISORIES NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE YAKUTAT
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES AS THE LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER NE CLOSER
TOWARDS THE COAST. AS OF 4AM AKDT, SATELLITE SNOWFALL PRODUCTS
SHOW INCOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WITH NEAR 1 INCH PER
HOURS RATES MOVING NE TOWARDS YAKUTAT, WILL LIKELY SEE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS FOR BRIEF PERIODS THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF STRONGER WAVES SEND BANDS
OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH
THE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP ONGOING AT SITKA, REACHING AS FAR
EAST AS JUNEAU AND UP TO HAINES WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 2 MILES
OR LESS. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES LIMITING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT SEA LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR A LOT OF AREAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE HIGHER SNOW RATES TO THE MORNING HOURS AND
EVENING HOURS. DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CURRENT THINKING IS
PRECIP WILL LIKELY STILL BE SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
PANHANDLE GIVEN HOW COLD ALOFT IT STILL IS (-8C AT 850 MB), BUT
THE SNOW WILL BE MELTING AS IT REACHES THE GROUND. MOVING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING, ANOTHER WAVE AND SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, A SNOW RAIN MIX TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, AND
PREDOMINATELY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD, INCLUDING JUNEAU.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LINGERING SHOWERS FOLLOW BEHIND THE LARGER FRONT ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK SECONDARY LOW LINGERS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE OUTER COASTLINE SITKA
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE FOR THE START OF SUNDAY, AND BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AS WELL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING TO SEE
LOWER AMOUNTS INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND FALLS APART. THE
ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL, GIVING A WINDOW OF GENERALLY MORE BENIGN
CONDITIONS IN BOTH WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ALIKE FOR MONDAY.
TUESDAY BRINGS A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTH, BUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM COMES WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL. THE MOST AGREED UPON SOLUTION NOW BETWEEN MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, IS THE STORM FORCE LOW
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY. THE ONLY MODEL
WITH A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION IS THE GEFS AND GFS DETERMINISTIC
MODEL, KEEPING THIS LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INTO CANADA
SOONER, BUT THIS AS OF TODAY APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO
ALL OTHER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
THE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WEAKENING FINALLY AS IT APPROACHES, BRINGING
LARGELY GALES TO STRONG GALES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF DIXON ENTRANCE AND CLARENCE STRAIT SEEING SOME STORM
FORCE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE LOW
WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH ELEVATED WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COASTLINE.
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AS OF NOW IS UNCERTAIN, WITH PLENTY OF
DISAGREEMENT ON IF THE LOW WILL MOVE MORE EASTWARD INTO CANADA,
MORE DIRECTLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, OR LINGER JUST OFF THE
COASTLINE TO THE WEST AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL BRING SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE PRECIPITATION PUSHES, AS WELL
AS THE WIND IMPACTS AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COASTLINE AND WHERE
EXACTLY WILL SEE THESE HIGHEST WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS
ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY
ALONE BRINGING SOME OF THE WINDS HIGHER AND SHOWING IT TO BE A
STRONGER LOW CENTER, BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH GOING
FORWARD.
OUTFLOW WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TUESDAY SYSTEM,
AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH A HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
THIS WILL ENABLE SOME STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE GAP WINDS COMING
OFF OF THE NE GULF COASTLINE, ALONGSIDE SOME 30 TO 50 KT WINDS
DOWN LYNN CANAL AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AS
WELL AS IMPACTING SOME OTHER NE ORIENTED CHANNELS SUCH AS TAKU
INLET AND WINDS COMING OUT OF CROSS SOUND INTO THE GULF. THESE
STRONG OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS KEEP SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOWER WITH THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE
FURTHER NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
LESS THAN IDEAL FLYING WEATHER. CONDITIONS ARE DROPPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE TOWARDS IFR/MVFR AS ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH ON SATURDAY. LLWS IS ALSO ON THE RISE AS A
FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT VIS TO ON OCCASION
DROP TO 1SM OR LESS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS, ALONGSIDE CIGS
PLUMMETING DOWN TO 1K TO 1.5K FEET. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MORE REDUCTIONS IN IFR AND VIS, BUT LESS
LLWS FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
MARINE...
INSIDE WATERS...EXPECT MOSTLY 25 TO 30 KT SOUTH WINDS FOR MANY
INNER CHANNELS AREAS (EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH) ON SATURDAY. CLARENCE
STRAIT WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MIN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CHANNELS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHOT
OF GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BURST OF SW WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF ONE OF THE GULF LOWS PUSHES SOME STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE CHANNELS. LIKELY ANOTHER PERIOD OF 25 TO
30 KT WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL CHANNELS NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
BECAUSE OF IT. SEAS WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY TO AROUND 6 TO 7
FT OR SO AS WINDS INCREASE WITH HIGHER SEAS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES
EXPOSED TO A SOUTH SWELL.
GULF WATERS...THE GULF WATERS WILL SEE PERIODS OF INCREASED WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF STRONGER COMPACT LOW
CENTERS MOVE N AND THEN NW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF. EXPECT SHORT
DURATIONS OF WIND UP TO MODERATE GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE LOW
CENTERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST OF THESE LOWS MOVE NORTH. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS AWAY FROM
THE LOW CENTERS WILL MAINLY BE 25 KT OR LESS, BUT WIND DIRECTION
WILL ALMOST CONSTANTLY BE SHIFTING FROM E TO S TO W THEN BACK TO E
AS THE MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS MOVE THROUGH. WINDS QUIET DOWN AGAIN
AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 6 TO 8 FT WITH A
8 FT W SWELL. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY (UP TO 13
FT IN SOME NEAR SHORE AREAS) AS THE INCREASED WINDS FROM THE
VARIOUS LOW CENTERS BUILD SEAS. ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO SUNDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ317.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ319.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
AKZ320>323-325-327.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
SUNDAY FOR AKZ326.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328>330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ035-036-641>644-661>664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031>034-053-651-652-672.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...EAL
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