801
FXAK67 PAJK 220616
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1016 PM AKDT SAT MAR 21 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO INCLUDE 6Z TAF ISSUANCE AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. A STRONG FRONT BRINGING HEAVY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, AND IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT, CONTINUING SNOWFALL
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE IT DISSIPATES THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL WITH LOWERED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS,
THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MORE SNOW LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THOSE AREAS.
SHORT TERM
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS SEVERAL STRONGER BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND IN SOME AREAS SNOW. HAINES SO FAR HAS BEEN THE MAIN
WINNER FOR SNOW TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 6 INCHES REPORTED
THIS MORNING. THEY ARE ALSO THE ONLY PLACE IN THE PANHANDLE NEAR
SEA LEVEL THAT IS STILL BELOW FREEZING CURRENTLY. EVERYWHERE ELSE
IS SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHICH HAS LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
BEEN LOW AS EVEN THOUGH IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW, THE SEA
LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SUCH THAT THE SNOW IS ACTIVELY
MELTING AS IT FALLS. A LOT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT
WERE UP WERE CANCELLED BECAUSE OF THE LOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY
WITH KETCHIKAN AND HYDABURG SHOWING GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH AT
TIMES.
THE BROAD LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE RATHER COMPLEX IN
STRUCTURE DUE TO SEVERAL SMALL LOW CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN CIRCULATION. A FEW OF THESE LOWS WILL BE AFFECTING THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE FIRST AND STRONGEST ONE IS
MOVING NORTH AROUND 56N 140W AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVIER
PRECIP BANDS AND GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE WHERE WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN UP. ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF IT THERE IS AN AREA OF 40 KT W WINDS THAT WILL BE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THAT COULD BRING SOME GUSTIER WINDS TO WESTERN BARANOF AND CROSS
SOUND AREA THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP IS MOSTLY FALLING AS SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. HOWEVER, SEA LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE SO WARM THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS NOT BEEN MUCH,
MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST.
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE/LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE OUTER COAST
MID DAY SUNDAY AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORT
WAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE STARTING SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE COOLED OVERALL BY THIS POINT AS MORE COLD
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE W, SO THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE SNOW
THAT FALLS TO STICK, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND ROAD SYSTEM MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOW SEA LEVEL
LOCATIONS TO START ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH DUE TO THIS.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY ROTATING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL
PUSH OVER THE AREA MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER WEAK LOW EXTENDING FROM THE MULTIVORTEX SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF, WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COASTLINE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BY
TUESDAY MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION, ALONGSIDE CLEARER SKIES AND SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS A LOW APPROACHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE WHILE A HIGH LINGERS TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS LOW TO THE SOUTH HAS CHANGED QUITE A
BIT SINCE YESTERDAY, AS NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARDS
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF KEEPING THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH, IN
PART DUE TO THE AGREEMENT NOW ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY
BEGINNING TO PUSH EASTWARD RATHER THAN LINGER JUST WEST OF THE
PANHANDLE AS IT HAS BEEN. THE LOW ITSELF WILL MOVE MORE INTO THE
WEST COAST OF BC, JUST EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF HAIDA GWAII. AFTER THIS
IS WHERE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING THAT
THE QUICKLY WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE NORTHWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
BC, KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WITH CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF SE AK.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOWER END FOR THIS SYSTEM,
AND ALONGSIDE THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
RESULT IN LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EVEN WITH THE SOLUTION THAT
BRINGS IN MORE PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA.
OVERALL THIS CHANGE HAS BROUGHT DOWN THE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE LOW BEING MUCH WEAKER AND STAYING
SOUTH FOR LONGER, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE
OUTFLOW WILL BE MUCH LESS STRONG AND MAINLY IMPACT THE LYNN CANAL
AREA, AND OFF THE NE COAST WITH GAP WINDS. THESE WINDS NOW ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY GET TO GALE FORCE, LARGELY STAYING BELOW 40 KT AT
THE PEAK ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH INTO
THURSDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 6Z MONDAY/
A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT IS STARTING TO DETERIORATE AS
IT MOVES NORTH, CURRENTLY SITTING DRAPED OVER THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING NORTHWARD, BRINGING
MORE ORGANIZED SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT
BEFORE MOVING OUT. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE FOLLOWING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND
LOWERING VIS TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 2000 FT.
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH MAY
PERIODICALLY BRING CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LIFR WITH 1/2 SM
OF VIS. IN BETWEEN SHOWERS, CONDITIONS MAY JUMP BACK UP TO VFR
WITH BROKEN CIGS AND LIGHT WINDS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO LOSE STEAM. AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY, THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL START TO CLEAR OUT AS WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS
DEVELOP. FROM THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTH, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS. FOR THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE SOUTH OF THIS, EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT IFR SNOW SHOWERS,
WITH A WIDESPREAD BAND OF IFR SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT (FREDERICK SOUND SOUTH TO DIXON ENTRANCE).
BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD, THE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS HAVE A
CHANCE TO BREAK OUT OF THE BAND OF SNOW AND FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE BAND MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DIMINISH AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OUT.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS...GUSTY S AND E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT REMAIN THE
NORM THIS EVENING FOR MANY AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS THIS
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS LYNN CANAL AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
STEPHENS PASSAGE WHERE N WINDS ARE BLOWING. THOSE N WINDS SHOULD
SWITCH AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH LYNN CANAL POSSIBLY
SEEING A PERIOD OF 25 KT WINDS SHORTLY AFTER THE SWITCH AS THE
FIRST LOW IN THE GULF MOVES NORTHWARD AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SWITCH. THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CAUSING
WINDS IN THE NORTH TO TURN NORTH ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 3 TO 6 FT AND WILL GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN THOSE
VALUES AS WINDS INCREASE AND DECREASE WITH EACH SHORT WAVE THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
GULF AND COASTAL WATERS...THE BROAD LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO
BE RATHER COMPLEX IN STRUCTURE DUE TO SEVERAL SMALL LOW CENTERS
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN CIRCULATION. THE FIRST AND STRONGEST ONE
IS MOVING NORTH AROUND 56N 140W AND IS BRINGING SOME MIN GALE
FORCE WINDS NEAR ITS CIRCULATION ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
IT. THAT LOW WILL MOVE N AND THEN W THIS EVENING TAKING ITS WINDS
WITH IT. THE NEXT LOW WILL MOVE CLOSER TO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
AND WILL BE WEAKER ONLY PRODUCING 25 KT WINDS AROUND IT FROM
MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS ARE AROUND
20 KT OR LESS WITH VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AS THE COMPLEX LOW
SHIFTS AROUND. SEAS ARE AROUND 10 TO 14 FT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT (UP TO 20 FT) AS THE FIRST STRONG LOW
MOVES THROUGH BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ317-319.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ320>330-
332.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM AKDT MONDAY
FOR AKZ328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR
AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644-651-652-662>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>033-035-036-
641>643-661.
UPDATE...ZTK
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAL
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