980
FXAK67 PAJK 221409
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
609 AM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING FRONT. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
- A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO THE AREA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/TODAY AND TONIGHT/
THINKING OF THE JOYS OF SUMMER AS A PARADE OF LOWS CONTINUE TO
CAROUSEL AROUND EACH OTHER IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AS OF
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONG FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EVENING THAT
BROUGHT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE AREA HAS PUSHED
INTO THE YUKON WITH THE PARENT LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD IN THE GULF
TOWARDS KODIAK. IN ITS WAKE, THE EVER-SO-FAMILIAR MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS
SHOWING IMPRESSIVE ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES AND VISIBILITIES
DROPPING DOWN TO ONE MILE AT TIMES ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATING THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, BEFORE A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN COVERAGE AS OFF-SHORE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP AS A LOW IN THE N PAC APPROACHES THE S PANHANDLE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 10AM SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER UP TO 7 INCHES
POSSIBLE AT YAKUTAT. ALTHOUGH PER USUAL CAVEAT, SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE HIT OR
MISS NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS.
FOR THE S PANHANDLE, NO ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN THE
SNOW SHOWERS AND A SECONDARY SYSTEM APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LVL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO
THE S PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
PRINCE OF WALES, KETCHIKAN, AND METLAKATLA COMMUNITIES THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTH WILL INITIALLY BE
THE HIGHEST AT ELEVATIONS OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, BUT MORE
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SEA LEVEL BY SUNDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE S PANHANDLE
COMMUNITIES THROUGH 4 AM MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY ROTATING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL
PUSH OVER THE AREA MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER WEAK LOW EXTENDING FROM THE MULTIVORTEX SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF, WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COASTLINE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BY
TUESDAY MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION, ALONGSIDE CLEARER SKIES AND SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS A LOW APPROACHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE WHILE A HIGH LINGERS TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS LOW TO THE SOUTH HAS CHANGED QUITE A
BIT SINCE YESTERDAY, AS NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARDS
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF KEEPING THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH, IN
PART DUE TO THE AGREEMENT NOW ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY
BEGINNING TO PUSH EASTWARD RATHER THAN LINGER JUST WEST OF THE
PANHANDLE AS IT HAS BEEN. THE LOW ITSELF WILL MOVE MORE INTO THE
WEST COAST OF BC, JUST EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF HAIDA GWAII. AFTER THIS
IS WHERE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING THAT
THE QUICKLY WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE NORTHWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
BC, KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WITH CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF SE AK.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOWER END FOR THIS SYSTEM,
AND ALONGSIDE THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
RESULT IN LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EVEN WITH THE SOLUTION THAT
BRINGS IN MORE PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA.
OVERALL THIS CHANGE HAS BROUGHT DOWN THE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE LOW BEING MUCH WEAKER AND STAYING
SOUTH FOR LONGER, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE
OUTFLOW WILL BE MUCH LESS STRONG AND MAINLY IMPACT THE LYNN CANAL
AREA, AND OFF THE NE COAST WITH GAP WINDS. THESE WINDS NOW ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY GET TO GALE FORCE, LARGELY STAYING BELOW 40 KT AT
THE PEAK ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH INTO
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. AS SHOWERS MOVE OVER AN AREA, CEILINGS QUICKLY DROP
BELOW 2500 FT, BELOW 1000 FT AT TIMES. SIMILARLY VISIBILITIES
QUICKLY DROP BELOW 2 SM AS LOW AS 1/2 SM AT TIMES WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY
THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SW.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW BEGINS, BUT THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WILL HAVE ANOTHER ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE QUICK DECREASE IN VISIBILITY TO
AOB 1 SM. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES SNOW OVER THE AREA, THERE IS CHANCE TO SEE A PERIOD
OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR THESE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THE
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION, SNOW SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS:
PREDOMINATE S-LY WINDS ONGOING ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS, ISOLATED AREAS NEAR
SCULL WITHIN STEPHENS NEAR 20KTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
STREAM INLAND. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT VISIBILITIES WITHIN
ANY SNOW SHOWER WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. WIND SHIFT EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS, TURNING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY WITHIN LYNN
CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE AND OTHER N/S ORIENTED CHANNELS AS A LOW
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 3 TO
6 FT AND WILL GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN THOSE VALUES AS WINDS
INCREASE AND DECREASE WITH EACH SHORT WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 3 TO 6 FT AND WILL GENERALLY VARY
BETWEEN THOSE VALUES AS WINDS INCREASE AND DECREASE WITH EACH
SHORT WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
GULF WATERS:
THE BROAD LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE COMPLEX
IN STRUCTURE DUE TO SEVERAL SMALL LOW CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN CIRCULATION. IN THE N GULF, A STRONGER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED
BARRIER JET ENHANCED GALE FORCE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE
N GULF WITH EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO
55 KTS NEAR CAPE SUCKLING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT SHIFTS
WESTWARD TOWARD KODIAK. A WEAKER SEPARATE NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE
LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE N PAC BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING, PUSHING
INTO THE S PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM TOWARDS KODIAK AND THIS INCOMING SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VARIABLE
WINDS AS THESE DIFFERING LOWS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE GULF.
WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE N GULF WILL DIMINISH FROM 20FT THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 10 TO 13FT, WITH SWELL TURNING FROM SE-LY MORE
SW-LY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.S GULF WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 9 TO 12FT THROUGH SUNDAY, REACHING THE TOP END OF THE RANGE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PUSHES INLAND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ317-
319>327.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ328>330-
332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ651-652-661-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-036-053-641>644-662-663.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...NM
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