690
FXAK67 PAJK 230002
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
402 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. DECREASING
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY.
- OUTFLOW NORTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE TUESDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS AND NE GULF COAST.
SHORT TERM
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY,
BUT ARE MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. PRINCE OF
WALES HAS BEEN WEATHERING THE BRUNT OF IT WITH VISIBILITIES AT
KLAWOCK AND HYDABURG DROPPING TO LESS THEN A HALF MILE AT TIMES
TODAY WITH HEAVY TO MODERATE SNOW. THE MAIN CULPRIT IS A NEW LOW
THAT IS MOVING NORTH JUST WEST OF PRINCE OF WALES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS OVERALL HAVE CALMED DOWN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MOST
AREAS 25 KT OR LESS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE LOW NEAR
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WE WILL BE FINALLY SEEING A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT NOT BEFORE ONE LAST
GASP FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNELS. THE LOW THAT IS NEAR
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH UP CHATHAM STRAIT TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR NORTHERN BARANOF
AND SOUTHERN CHICHAGOF ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS PUTTING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CHICHAGOF, ADMIRALTY, AND BARANOF ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
LASTING INTO MONDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THOSE AREAS WITH SNOW TOTALS EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER, IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW CHANGES OR THE LOW DOES NOT
STALL, BUT KEEPS GOING NORTHWARD, SNOW TOTALS COULD END UP BEING
LOWER AND OTHER AREAS MAY SEE SNOW INSTEAD. OTHERWISE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIMINISHING OVERALL WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
MUCH LESS FREQUENT SHOWER BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LOWER THEN WHAT WE WERE SEEING YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND THE LOW
JUST WEST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AT AROUND 25 TO 30 KT. SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW NORTHWARD TONIGHT BUT WILL BE
WEAKENING AS THE LOW WEAKENS. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME
SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS. NORTHERN CHANNELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A
WIND DIRECTION SHIFT FROM S TO N AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND LYNN
CANAL AND GLACIER BAY IN PARTICULAR WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE CHANNELS SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AGAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO
SEE A DRIER TREND MIDWEEK, WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC TUESDAY, WEAKENING QUICKLY WHILE IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY
IS KEEPING WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE COAST OF BC, BETWEEN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND HAIDA GWAII. THIS SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
LOW MOVING ALONG THE COASTLINE MONDAY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLE AS IT WEAKENS BY TUESDAY MORNING, GIVING THE PANHANDLE A
BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS NEXT LOW MOVES NORTH NEAR HAIDA
GWAII. WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WILL BE OUT OF OUR
AREA DUE TO THE LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, THE
FRONT WILL STILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE FURTHEST SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHERN COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, PUSHING SOME PRECIPITATION
FURTHER INTO THE PANHANDLE BUT LARGELY REMAINING SOUTH OF ICY
STRAIT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE GULF, AND THOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MULTIPLE DIFFERENT POSITIONS AND STRENGTHS OF
THE LOW, THE SOLUTIONS LARGELY AGREE ON THE LOW REMAINING IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST GULF. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF
PRECIPITATION HITTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH THE NORTH STAYING PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK.
SOME CHANCES OF SNOWFALL RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE AROUND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR THURSDAY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE
SNOWFALL AT NIGHTS AS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S AND AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE AREA. DURING THE DAYTIME, MUCH OF
THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RAIN SNOW MIX, AS TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
ALONGSIDE SNOW LEVELS RAISING TO 200 TO 400 FT BY THURSDAY. THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED WILL
LIKELY NOT BRING AS MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA,
PARTICULARLY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
CONTINUES TO SEE SOME WARMING. THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM SITKA TO
PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL MAY SEE SOME COOLING WITH THE OUTFLOW ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH, BRINGING SOME MORE POTENTIAL FOR LONGER SNOWFALL INTO THE
DAY AND MORE ACCUMULATION FROM COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA.
OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE
MAIN CHANGE BEING AN INCREASE TO THE SURFACE WINDS FOR GASTINEAU
CHANNEL AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A MOUNTAIN
WAVE EVENT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE AREA OVER
JUNEAU WILL SEE SOME 30 TO 40 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER GASTINEAU
CHANNEL AND TAKU INLET, ALONGSIDE A CRITICAL LEVEL FORMING AT
AROUND 500 MB. THE CONDITIONS OVERALL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME 15
TO 25 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT THE PEAK, THOUGH THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH MOVING FORWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SHORTER TERM.
AVIATION
A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE IS THE PRIMARY THREAT AND CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN ICY STRAIT AND SUMNER
TO SEE IFR TO LIFR SNOW AT TIMES, WITH THIS BAND LIKELY STALLING
OUT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL REGION. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM IS MORE SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE PANHANDLE MONDAY. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON, SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS
OUTFLOW SETTLES IN, BRINGING VFR TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL TRACKING
TO THE WEST, WITH A FEW ABLE TO MAKE IT OVER PAYA, BRINGING QUICK
HITS OF LIFR SNOW. THIS THREAT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH VFR BECOMING THE DOMINANT CATEGORY MONDAY AS
SHOWERS ARE PUSHED SOUTHWEST.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS: LOWER WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. STILL SOME 15 TO 25 KT WINDS IN CLARENCE
STRAIT AND NEAR CAPE DECISION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WEST OF POW. WE ARE ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND SHIFTS WITH
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS STARTING TO SHOW A SHIFT TO A N WIND
AS THAT LOW MOVES NORTH. THAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP CHATHAM
STRAIT TONIGHT AND WILL STALL NEAR CHICHAGOF ISLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY WILL LIKELY STAY A
N WIND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT LEAST, WHILE THE CHANNELS S OF ICY
STRAIT WILL SWITCH BACK TO A SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN
CHANNELS WILL START TO SEE INCREASING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW STARTING
TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND SOME
OTHER NORTHERN CHANNELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SEAS IN
THE NORTHERN CHANNELS AS OUTFLOW STARTS UP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
GULF WATERS: COMPLEX LOW IS STILL PINWHEELING THROUGH THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SHORTWAVE LOW TO AFFECT THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE GULF IS CURRENTLY JUST OFF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND
MOVING NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE. THERE ARE SOME 25 TO 30 KT WINDS
NEAR THE LOW CENTER THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAPE DECISION AREA
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE MOSTLY 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF TODAY AND WILL MAINLY STAY THAT WAY INTO TUESDAY
THROUGH THERE WILL BE VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS AS INDIVIDUAL LOW
CENTERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE WATERS NEAR THE NE GULF COAST
WILL START TO SEE SOME GUSTY N WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM CHANNELS
AND PASSES ALONG THE COAST STARTING TUESDAY. SEAS ARE AROUND 7 TO
10 FT THIS AFTERNOON (SW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT). EXPECT SEAS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW WIND
CONDITIONS AND SUBSIDING SWELL. SEAS WILL START INCREASING AGAIN
NEAR THE NE GULF COAST AS OUTFLOW WINDS START TO INCREASE TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ321-
324.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM AKDT
MONDAY FOR AKZ323.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ326>330-
332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ661.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-035-036-641>644-651-652-
662>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...EAL
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page