896
FXAK67 PAJK 230602
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1002 PM AKDT SUN MAR 22 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE 6Z TAF
ISSUANCE...
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. DECREASING
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY.
- OUTFLOW NORTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE TUESDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS AND NE GULF COAST.
SHORT TERM
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY,
BUT ARE MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. PRINCE OF
WALES HAS BEEN WEATHERING THE BRUNT OF IT WITH VISIBILITIES AT
KLAWOCK AND HYDABURG DROPPING TO LESS THEN A HALF MILE AT TIMES
TODAY WITH HEAVY TO MODERATE SNOW. THE MAIN CULPRIT IS A NEW LOW
THAT IS MOVING NORTH JUST WEST OF PRINCE OF WALES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS OVERALL HAVE CALMED DOWN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MOST
AREAS 25 KT OR LESS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE LOW NEAR
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WE WILL BE FINALLY SEEING A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT NOT BEFORE ONE LAST
GASP FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNELS. THE LOW THAT IS NEAR
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH UP CHATHAM STRAIT TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR NORTHERN BARANOF
AND SOUTHERN CHICHAGOF ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS PUTTING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CHICHAGOF, ADMIRALTY, AND BARANOF ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING
INTO MONDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE
AREAS WITH SNOW TOTALS EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TO 6 INCHES. HOWEVER,
IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW CHANGES OR THE LOW DOES NOT STALL, BUT
KEEPS GOING NORTHWARD, SNOW TOTALS COULD END UP BEING LOWER AND
OTHER AREAS MAY SEE SNOW INSTEAD. OTHERWISE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DIMINISHING OVERALL WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MUCH
LESS FREQUENT SHOWER BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LOWER THEN WHAT WE WERE SEEING YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND THE LOW
JUST WEST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AT AROUND 25 TO 30 KT. SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW NORTHWARD TONIGHT BUT WILL BE
WEAKENING AS THE LOW WEAKENS. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME
SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS. NORTHERN CHANNELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A
WIND DIRECTION SHIFT FROM S TO N AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND LYNN
CANAL AND GLACIER BAY IN PARTICULAR WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE CHANNELS SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AGAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO SEE A
DRIER TREND MIDWEEK, WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC TUESDAY, WEAKENING QUICKLY WHILE IT APPROACHES
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TODAY IS KEEPING WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE COAST OF BC, BETWEEN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND HAIDA GWAII. THIS SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COASTLINE MONDAY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE PANHANDLE AS IT WEAKENS BY TUESDAY MORNING, GIVING THE
PANHANDLE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS NEXT LOW MOVES
NORTH NEAR HAIDA GWAII. WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IMPACTS
WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO THE LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PANHANDLE, THE FRONT WILL STILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO
THE FURTHEST SOUTHEAST PART OF THE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
PUSHING SOME PRECIPITATION FURTHER INTO THE PANHANDLE BUT LARGELY
REMAINING SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE
GULF, AND THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MULTIPLE DIFFERENT
POSITIONS AND STRENGTHS OF THE LOW, THE SOLUTIONS LARGELY AGREE ON
THE LOW REMAINING IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST GULF. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF PRECIPITATION HITTING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE NORTH STAYING
PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME CHANCES OF SNOWFALL
RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AROUND ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR THURSDAY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
SEE SNOWFALL AT NIGHTS AS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S
AND AS COLDER AIR ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE AREA. DURING THE DAYTIME,
MUCH OF THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RAIN SNOW MIX, AS
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, ALONGSIDE SNOW LEVELS RAISING TO 200 TO 400 FT BY
THURSDAY. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS
EXPECTED WILL LIKELY NOT BRING AS MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
AREA, PARTICULARLY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE SOME WARMING. THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
FROM SITKA TO PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL MAY SEE SOME COOLING WITH
THE OUTFLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING SOME MORE POTENTIAL FOR
LONGER SNOWFALL INTO THE DAY AND MORE ACCUMULATION FROM COLDER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE
MAIN CHANGE BEING AN INCREASE TO THE SURFACE WINDS FOR GASTINEAU
CHANNEL AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A
MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE AREA
OVER JUNEAU WILL SEE SOME 30 TO 40 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER
GASTINEAU CHANNEL AND TAKU INLET, ALONGSIDE A CRITICAL LEVEL
FORMING AT AROUND 500 MB. THE CONDITIONS OVERALL LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR SOME 15 TO 25 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT THE PEAK,
THOUGH THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH MOVING FORWARD AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SHORTER TERM.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 6Z TUESDAY/
THE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO COMMUNITIES ALONG THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR AND SITKA. THERE ARE SOME DRY SLOTS IN THIS BAND, SO
JUNEAU APPEARS TO BE MISSING MOST OF THIS SNOW AND INSTEAD IS JUST
FEELING SOME OF THE GUSTIER WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ALONG THE BACK
EDGE OF THE BAND. THE REST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE REMAINS CLEAR
AND RELATIVELY CALM, WITH HAINES BEING THE ONLY SITE UP NORTH TO
BE SEEING SOME BREEZY OUTFLOW WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP BETWEEN 10
TO 15 KTS. BEHIND THE BAND, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH
A MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, OCCASIONALLY
DROPPING VIS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS
BRINGING SHORT PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS TO SOME LOCATIONS. CIGS
AREN'T AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING AS THEY STREAM IN FROM THE
GULF, BUT LOCATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE ARE SEEING LOWERED
BROKEN CIGS AOB 3000 FT WITH SCATTERED CIGS AS LOW AS 500 FT. IN
BETWEEN SHOWERS, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH GOOD
VIS AND BROKEN CIGS.
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER BAND OF MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE IN THE EARLY
MORNING OF MONDAY, AND POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ONE THROUGH MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE BANDS MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZIER WINDS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH, BUT AREAS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
HAVE POTENTIAL TO DROP CONDITIONS TO PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR. THESE
BANDS MAY ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE SOUTH OF
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, WHILE OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL START TO INCREASE THROUGH THE CHANNELS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THOSE AREAS MORE DRY AND CLEARED
OUT. GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT VERY PARTIAL TO THESE OUTFLOW WINDS,
BUT EXPECTING SKAGWAY, HAINES, AND POTENTIALLY OTHER COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR TO SEE 20 TO 25 KTS OF NORTHERLY
WINDS PICK UP THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS: LOWER WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. STILL SOME 15 TO 25 KT WINDS IN CLARENCE
STRAIT AND NEAR CAPE DECISION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WEST OF POW. WE ARE ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME WIND SHIFTS WITH
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS STARTING TO SHOW A SHIFT TO A N WIND
AS THAT LOW MOVES NORTH. THAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP CHATHAM
STRAIT TONIGHT AND WILL STALL NEAR CHICHAGOF ISLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY WILL LIKELY STAY A
N WIND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT LEAST, WHILE THE CHANNELS S OF ICY
STRAIT WILL SWITCH BACK TO A SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN
CHANNELS WILL START TO SEE INCREASING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW STARTING
TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND SOME
OTHER NORTHERN CHANNELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SEAS IN
THE NORTHERN CHANNELS AS OUTFLOW STARTS UP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
GULF WATERS: COMPLEX LOW IS STILL PINWHEELING THROUGH THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SHORTWAVE LOW TO AFFECT THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE GULF IS CURRENTLY JUST OFF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND
MOVING NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE. THERE ARE SOME 25 TO 30 KT WINDS
NEAR THE LOW CENTER THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAPE DECISION AREA
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE MOSTLY 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF TODAY AND WILL MAINLY STAY THAT WAY INTO TUESDAY
THROUGH THERE WILL BE VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS AS INDIVIDUAL LOW
CENTERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE WATERS NEAR THE NE GULF COAST
WILL START TO SEE SOME GUSTY N WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM CHANNELS
AND PASSES ALONG THE COAST STARTING TUESDAY. SEAS ARE AROUND 7 TO
10 FT THIS AFTERNOON (SW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT). EXPECT SEAS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW WIND
CONDITIONS AND SUBSIDING SWELL. SEAS WILL START INCREASING AGAIN
NEAR THE NE GULF COAST AS OUTFLOW WINDS START TO INCREASE TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ321-
324.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ323.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ326>330-
332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAL
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