006
FXAK67 PAJK 231434
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
634 AM AKDT MON MAR 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
ALLOWING FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING
INTO TUESDAY.
- OUTFLOW NORTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE TUESDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS AND NE GULF COAST.
SHORT TERM
/TODAY AND TONIGHT/
MINOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST OVER NIGHT AS LOW WEAKENS OVER
BARANOF ISLAND, TURNING INTO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT FROM THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO KETCHIKAN, WITH VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS 1 MILE AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES SNOWFALL RATES AROUND A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH AN HOUR ALONG THE LEADING FRONT. EXPANDED THE
ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE GUSTAVUS AND THE JUNEAU AREA AS
THE BAND CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD. FOR THE JUNEAU AREA,
THINKING HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OUT THE ROAD NEAR LENA
POINT WITH PRECIP MOVING NORTHWARD UP CHATHAM STRAIT INTO S LYNN
CANAL. THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PULLS WEST AWAY FROM THE COAST AND DISSIPATES,
WITH COVERAGE DISSPATING ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO SEE A DRIER TREND MIDWEEK, WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINING FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TUESDAY, WEAKENING
QUICKLY WHILE IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS KEEPING WITH THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE COAST OF BC, BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND HAIDA GWAII.
THIS SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COASTLINE
MONDAY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE AS IT WEAKENS BY
TUESDAY MORNING, GIVING THE PANHANDLE A BREAK FROM THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS NEXT LOW MOVES NORTH NEAR HAIDA GWAII. WHILE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO
THE LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, THE FRONT WILL
STILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE FURTHEST SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE PANHANDLE. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, PUSHING SOME PRECIPITATION FURTHER
INTO THE PANHANDLE BUT LARGELY REMAINING SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT.
THIS LOW LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE GULF, AND THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING MULTIPLE DIFFERENT POSITIONS AND STRENGTHS OF THE LOW,
THE SOLUTIONS LARGELY AGREE ON THE LOW REMAINING IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST GULF. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF
PRECIPITATION HITTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH THE NORTH STAYING PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEK. SOME CHANCES OF SNOWFALL RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE AROUND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR THURSDAY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
SEE SNOWFALL AT NIGHTS AS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S
AND AS COLDER AIR ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE AREA. DURING THE DAYTIME,
MUCH OF THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RAIN SNOW MIX, AS
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, ALONGSIDE SNOW LEVELS RAISING TO 200 TO 400 FT BY
THURSDAY. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS
EXPECTED WILL LIKELY NOT BRING AS MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
AREA, PARTICULARLY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE SOME WARMING. THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
FROM SITKA TO PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL MAY SEE SOME COOLING WITH
THE OUTFLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING SOME MORE POTENTIAL FOR
LONGER SNOWFALL INTO THE DAY AND MORE ACCUMULATION FROM COLDER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE
MAIN CHANGE BEING AN INCREASE TO THE SURFACE WINDS FOR GASTINEAU
CHANNEL AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A
MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE AREA
OVER JUNEAU WILL SEE SOME 30 TO 40 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER
GASTINEAU CHANNEL AND TAKU INLET, ALONGSIDE A CRITICAL LEVEL
FORMING AT AROUND 500 MB. THE CONDITIONS OVERALL LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR SOME 15 TO 25 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT THE PEAK,
THOUGH THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH MOVING FORWARD AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SHORTER TERM.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ALLOWING FOR TIMES OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
CONDITIONS CAN QUICKLY CHANGE DUE TO CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS AND A
FEW ORGANIZED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS
MORNING, WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR VIA SATELLITE. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED NORTHWARD, BUT IT HAS STILL CREATED TIMES OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AS VISIBILITIES FALLING BELOW 3 SM, MAINLY
OVER THE GUSTAVUS AREA. OTHERWISE, SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH OVERALL IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH TIMES OF MVFR CEILINGS AOB 2500FT
AND VISIBILITIES AOB 5SM. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TIMES OF IFR
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM WITH HEAVIEST SNOW.
OVER THE FAR NORTH; INCLUDING YAKUTAT, SKAGWAY, AND HAINES,
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME PROMINENT ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY. THESE OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OUTFLOW WINDS
NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT IN THIS AREA WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, STRONGEST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE START OF THE WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS: LIGHT WINDS ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INNER CHANNELS AS WEAK LOW PUSHES OVER BARANOF ISLAND,
STALLING NEAR CHICHAGOF ISLAND. AS A RESULT LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER
BAY WILL LIKELY STAY A N WIND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT LEAST,
WHILE THE CHANNELS S OF ICY STRAIT WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY. THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS WILL START TO SEE INCREASING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
STARTING TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND
SOME OTHER NORTHERN CHANNELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SEAS IN
THE NORTHERN CHANNELS AS OUTFLOW STARTS UP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
GULF WATERS: COMPLEX LOW IS STILL PINWHEELING THROUGH THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST SHORTWAVE/WEAK LOW OVER BARANOF
ISLAND. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH TODAY AND WILL MAINLY STAY THAT WAY INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH
THERE WILL BE VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS AS INDIVIDUAL LOW CENTERS
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE WATERS NEAR THE NE GULF COAST WILL
START TO SEE SOME GUSTY N WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM CHANNELS AND
PASSES ALONG THE COAST STARTING TUESDAY. SEAS ARE AROUND 7 TO 10
FT THIS AFTERNOON (SW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT). EXPECT SEAS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW WIND
CONDITIONS AND SUBSIDING SWELL. SEAS WILL START INCREASING AGAIN
NEAR THE NE GULF COAST AS OUTFLOW WINDS START TO INCREASE TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ320-
323-325>328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ321-324.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-641>644-661>664.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...NM/EAL
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