950
FXAK67 PAJK 232351
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT MON MAR 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING
INTO TUESDAY.
- OUTFLOW WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
CHANNELS AND NE GULF COAST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS FOR DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU/SOUTH DOUGLAS AND SKAGWAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL STILL BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS. WITH THE INCREASING AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT AND SUN ANGLE,
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM FROM ANY NIGHTTIME COOLING. WITH
THE DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO TOMORROW AS OUTFLOW
WINDS START TO INCREASE, AREAS NOT MODERATED BY WINDS COULD START TO
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FEEL MORE NORMAL
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE INCREASING OUTFLOW, WINDS IN THE
SKAGWAY AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREAS COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS WITH
THE OUTFLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT WIND GUSTS COULD RANGE FROM 45-50 MPH FOR THESE AREAS FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO SEE DRIER PATTERN
CONTINUING WITH OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERN WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE WAVES OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD A LOW LINGERING
OFF THE COAST OUT IN THE EASTERN GULF SENDS MULTIPLE TROUGHS/FRONTS
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION, MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE SNOWFALL AT
NIGHTS AS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S AND AS COLDER AIR
ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE AREA. DURING THE DAYTIME, MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RAIN SNOW MIX, AS TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
TO THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, ALONGSIDE SNOW
LEVELS RAISING TO 400 TO 600 FT BY FRIDAY. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED WILL LIKELY NOT BRING AS
MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA, PARTICULARLY INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE SOME WARMING. BY
LATE WEEK, LOW-END SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE NORTH, MAINLY ALONG
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR ON SOUTH, AS THE DRIER OUTFLOW PATTERN WEAKENS
AND WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE AND TROUGHS/FRONTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CREEPING NORTH.
OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS FOR THE GASTINEAU CHANNEL AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU
WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT INTO WEDNESDAY.
30 TO 40 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER GASTINEAU CHANNEL AND TAKU
INLET, ALONGSIDE A CRITICAL LEVEL FORMING AT AROUND 500 MB. THE
CONDITIONS OVERALL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME 15 TO 30 KT WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT THE PEAK FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTHERN
DOUGLAS. THE GUSTY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE FOR SKAGWAY AND KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS LYNN
CANAL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, EXPECT A MODERATING TREND AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S ON WEDNESDAY, CLIMBING TO THE 30S BY FRIDAY. ACROSS THE SOUTH,
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY, CLIMBING TO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE TREND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. NORTH OF THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR, VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH, SCATTERED CEILINGS PREVAIL
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
PICKING UP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND FULLY CLEARING OUT SKIES.
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE IS CURRENTLY SEEING SNOW SHOWERS,
BRINGING ON AND OFF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY PASS OVER.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE SPREAD OUT THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SO A MAJORITY OF SITES ARE SITTING AT A CONSISTENT VFR
WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING RESTRICTED VISIBILITY. WHEN SHOWERS
BLOW OVER, CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW, REDUCED
VIS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 SM, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS, AND CIGS AOB 3000
FT. HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DROP CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR WITH VIS
AROUND 1 SM AND MODERATE SNOWFALL, BUT THE MAIN POCKET OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE PUSHING NORTHEAST OVER JUNEAU AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THROUGH TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY IMPROVE AS OUTFLOW WINDS
INCREASE. WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NEAR TYPICAL OUTFLOW
PASSAGES WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, AND
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT UNTIL A MAJORITY OF
THE PANHANDLE IS FULLY CLEAR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE LLWS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, JUNEAU MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME ENE'LY LLWS AROUND 25 KTS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
TAKU INLET.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING AROUND 5-8 FT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY GETTING UP TO 10-14 FT. WITH THE LOW PASSING BY,
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE GAPS IN TERRAIN.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): CONDITIONS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS CONTINUE
TO VARY WITH LIGHT TO FRESH BREEZES BEING REPORTED. WITH THE PASSING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEFORE OUTFLOW WINDS START TO BECOME THE
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE INNER CHANNELS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
OUTFLOW PRONE CHANNELS AS A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. WITH THE INCREASING OUTFLOW WINDS, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO GALES FOR LYNN CANAL AND TAKU
INLET WHILE NEAR GALES ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHATHAM STRAIT. THESE
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ318.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ321-324.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-053.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>033-641>644-651-
661>664-671.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...SF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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