741
FXAK67 PAJK 240609
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1009 PM AKDT MON MAR 23 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE 6Z TAF ISSUANCE
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING
INTO TUESDAY.
- OUTFLOW WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
CHANNELS AND NE GULF COAST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS FOR DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU/SOUTH DOUGLAS AND SKAGWAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL STILL BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS. WITH THE INCREASING AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT AND SUN ANGLE,
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM FROM ANY NIGHTTIME COOLING.
WITH THE DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO TOMORROW AS
OUTFLOW WINDS START TO INCREASE, AREAS NOT MODERATED BY WINDS
COULD START TO SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
FEEL MORE NORMAL WITH THE CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE INCREASING
OUTFLOW, WINDS IN THE SKAGWAY AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREAS COULD SEE
SOME STRONG WINDS WITH THE OUTFLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND GUSTS COULD RANGE
FROM 45-50 MPH FOR THESE AREAS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO SEE DRIER
PATTERN CONTINUING WITH OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERN WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD A
LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST OUT IN THE EASTERN GULF SENDS MULTIPLE
TROUGHS/FRONTS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE
SNOWFALL AT NIGHTS AS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S AND
AS COLDER AIR ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE AREA. DURING THE DAYTIME,
MUCH OF THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RAIN SNOW MIX, AS
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, ALONGSIDE SNOW LEVELS RAISING TO 400 TO 600 FT BY
FRIDAY. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS
EXPECTED WILL LIKELY NOT BRING AS MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
AREA, PARTICULARLY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE SOME WARMING. BY LATE WEEK, LOW-END
SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE NORTH, MAINLY ALONG ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
ON SOUTH, AS THE DRIER OUTFLOW PATTERN WEAKENS AND WE SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE AND TROUGHS/FRONTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH CREEPING NORTH.
OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS FOR THE GASTINEAU CHANNEL AND DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT INTO
WEDNESDAY. 30 TO 40 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER GASTINEAU CHANNEL
AND TAKU INLET, ALONGSIDE A CRITICAL LEVEL FORMING AT AROUND 500
MB. THE CONDITIONS OVERALL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME 15 TO 30 KT
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT THE PEAK FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
SOUTHERN DOUGLAS. THE GUSTY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE FOR SKAGWAY AND
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS
LYNN CANAL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, EXPECT A MODERATING TREND AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S ON WEDNESDAY, CLIMBING TO THE 30S BY FRIDAY. ACROSS THE SOUTH,
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY, CLIMBING TO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
THROUGH JUNEAU, DROPPING VIS TO 1 SM OR LESS WITH CIGS BETWEEN
1500 AND 3000 FT. THE HEAVIEST PART OF THIS BAND LOOKS TO HAVE
FINALLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
BACK ARE CONTINUING SNOWFALL WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BIT LONGER.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER CELL CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH THROUGH
STEPHENS PASSAGE TO CONTINUE SNOWY CONDITIONS FOR LONGER, AS IT IS
MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TOWARDS THE DOWNTOWN AREA. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ONCE THE REMAINING SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA,
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONVECTION FROM THE MOUNTAINS ON
NORTHERN ADMIRALTY CONTINUES LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR LONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED. MOISTURE ALOFT LOOKS TO LEAVE THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 3 HOURS, SO ANTICIPATING ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE OUT BY THEN. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONCE SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, A LOW FOG LAYER MAY DEVELOP, SO A
PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED. FOR OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS A BAND OF SHOWERS OFF THE COAST FROM SITKA WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WHICH
COULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERED CIGS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY
EXPERIENCE EFFECTS FROM THE EDGE OF THIS BAND, INCLUDING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS OR THE OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SHOWER. THIS BAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TOO FAR THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE AS OUTFLOW WINDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. MANY SITES WILL START TO FEEL WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY, THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN SKAGWAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. GASTINEAU CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A
WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT WITH THIS OUTFLOW, WHICH MAY CAUSE LLWS
AROUND 25 KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING AROUND 5-8 FT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY GETTING UP TO 10-14 FT. WITH THE LOW PASSING BY,
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE GAPS IN TERRAIN.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): CONDITIONS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS CONTINUE
TO VARY WITH LIGHT TO FRESH BREEZES BEING REPORTED. WITH THE PASSING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEFORE OUTFLOW WINDS START TO BECOME THE
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE INNER CHANNELS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
OUTFLOW PRONE CHANNELS AS A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. WITH THE INCREASING OUTFLOW WINDS, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO GALES FOR LYNN CANAL AND TAKU
INLET WHILE NEAR GALES ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHATHAM STRAIT. THESE
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-053.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>033-641>644-651-
661>664-671.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...SF
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