981
FXAK67 PAJK 241420
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
620 AM AKDT TUE MAR 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUTFLOW WINDS INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS AND NE GULF COAST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU/SOUTH DOUGLAS AND SKAGWAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE, AND PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND.
SHORT TERM
/TODAY AND TONIGHT/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MEANDER
WESTWARD AWAY FROM BARANOF ISLAND. GOOD NEW IS, SNOW CHANCES FOR
TODAY ARE LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS TAKE OLD. NUDGED UP WINDS OVERNIGHT WITHIN N/S
MARINE AREA CHANNELS AS THEY HAVE INCREASED A BIT QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED, ALBEIT 5 TO 10 KTS STRONGER. MODEL GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT TO
UNFOLD BY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND S DOUGLAS
AREAS, HOWEVER MAIN FACTOR WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE INVERSION
DEEPENS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50 TO 60KTS ALOFT THAT COULD
WORK ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE BY
NOON TUESDAY, PEAKING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FURTHER NORTH, SIMILARLY, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED AT SKAGWAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PEAK OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS BEGIN, CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENT EXPIRY FOR
THE SKAGWAY ADVISORY IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER COULD SEE
LIKELY EXTENSIONS INTO END OF WEEK WITH OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CURRENTLY SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY TO CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK
IN FROM THE EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO SEE DRIER
PATTERN CONTINUING WITH OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERN WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD A
LOW LINGERING OFF THE COAST OUT IN THE EASTERN GULF SENDS MULTIPLE
TROUGHS/FRONTS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE
SNOWFALL AT NIGHTS AS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S AND
AS COLDER AIR ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE AREA. DURING THE DAYTIME,
MUCH OF THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RAIN SNOW MIX, AS
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, ALONGSIDE SNOW LEVELS RAISING TO 400 TO 600 FT BY
FRIDAY. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS
EXPECTED WILL LIKELY NOT BRING AS MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
AREA, PARTICULARLY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE SOME WARMING. BY LATE WEEK, LOW-END
SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE NORTH, MAINLY ALONG ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
ON SOUTH, AS THE DRIER OUTFLOW PATTERN WEAKENS AND WE SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE AND TROUGHS/FRONTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH CREEPING NORTH.
OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS FOR THE GASTINEAU CHANNEL AND DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT INTO
WEDNESDAY. 30 TO 40 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER GASTINEAU CHANNEL
AND TAKU INLET, ALONGSIDE A CRITICAL LEVEL FORMING AT AROUND 500
MB. THE CONDITIONS OVERALL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME 15 TO 30 KT
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AT THE PEAK FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
SOUTHERN DOUGLAS. THE GUSTY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE FOR SKAGWAY AND
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS
LYNN CANAL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, EXPECT A MODERATING TREND AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S ON WEDNESDAY, CLIMBING TO THE 30S BY FRIDAY. ACROSS THE SOUTH,
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY, CLIMBING TO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE GULF JUST WEST OF BARANOF
ISLAND. THIS LOW IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE GULF,
BUT ONLY HIGH CEILING OVER AREAS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. UNTIL THEN, THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS TO AREAS FROM SITKA NORTHWARD, NOT INCLUDING
YAKUTAT. EVEN WITH THIS CLOUD DECK, FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VERY
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AREAS MAY
SEE SHORT TIMES OF LIGHT SNOW, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. AS
FOR THE REST OF SE AK, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. CEILINGS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY BEGIN TO
LOWER AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD, LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
DUE TO ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE NORTH AND THEN SIT WEST OF
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL THING TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY WINDS FROM
SKAGWAY THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND EASTERLY WINDS OUT OF TAKU INLET.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ARE DUE TO INCREASING OUTFLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ANTICIPATED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. ALONG WITH THIS LLWS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT NEAR THE JUNEAU AIRPORT. THIS SET UP COULD MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING FLIGHT OVER GASTINEAU CHANNEL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
SPLIT REGIME ONGOING ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AS A LOW PULLS
WESTWARD AWAY FROM BARANOF ISLAND. ALONG AND SOUTH OF SUMER
STRAIT, WINDS ARE GENERALLY SE-LY NEAR 10 TO 15KTS. NORTHWARD
TOWARDS LYNN CANAL, N WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT AS OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN WITH ELDRED ROCK ALREADY INCREASING TO
25KTS, ONLY INCREASING FURTHER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED CHANNELS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THESE OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, EXPECTING FREEZING SPRAY
THREAT TO INCREASE AS FAR SOUTH AS ROCKY ISLAND AND TAKU INLET.
FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD START OFF LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING,
INCREASING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WITHIN LYNN CANAL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A WEAKENING LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OF THE COAST OF BARANOF ISLAND THIS MORNING, APPROXIMATELY
56N 139W WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AROUND THIS LOW AROUND 20
TO 30KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND THIS LOW NEAR 7 TO 10FT, DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SW TOWARDS
THE N PAC AND WEAKENING. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BECOME PREDOMINATE BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE N GULF, INCREASING THROUGH THE GAPS
IN TERRAIN UP TO GALE FORCE WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NE GULF COAST NEAR DANGEROUS RIVER VALLEY, ALSEK RIVER
VALLEY AND OUT OF YAKUTAT BAY. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
5 TO 8 FT, HOWEVER IN OUTFLOW PRONE AREAS WILL REACH UPWARDS OF 11
TO 12FT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, THESE
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-053-643-644-651-663-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>033-035-642-662-672.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...NM
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