408
FXAK67 PAJK 250604
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1004 PM AKDT TUE MAR 24 2026
UPDATE...AFTER 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH WIND ISSUES AROUND SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU FOR OUTFLOW/MOUNTAIN
WAVE ISSUES. TURBULENCE AND LLWS PROBABLY WHERE OUTFLOW OCCURS SO
POSSIBLE AROUND HAINES AND GUSTAVUS. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS MORE
CLOUDS MAINLY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS BUT NEAR THE DIXON ENTRANCE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS, BUT MAY NUDGE FLIGHT CONDITIONS INTO THE
MARGINAL LEVELS BECAUSE OF THE WEATHER.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 336 PM TUE 24 2026
SHORT TERM...CLEARING SKIES CONTINUE FOR THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
SUN ANGLE AS WELL AS AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET COLD
AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
A LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING INTO
TOMORROW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AT THE SURFACE,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN STILL FAIRLY COLD AS WELL AS DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 10S TO 20S. IF ANY MOISTURE WERE TO FALL
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL BACK DOWN AND A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. WITH THE DRIER AIR AND
STRONGER SUN ANGLE DURING THE DAY, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE FAVORED
AND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES NOT COOLING DOWN AS MUCH THIS EVENING
COMPARED TO AREAS WHERE THE WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM. OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM...A LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF ADMIRALTY ISLAND. WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 100-200 FEET AND THE INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING ANY SNOW
THAT DOES FALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AND WILL MELT DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS.
FOR THE DRY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TEMPERATURES
AND WIND ARE THE AREAS OF GREATEST INTEREST. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND WILL
POTENTIALLY BE WARMING UP TO UPPER 30S FOR THE PANHANDLE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, SMALLER SCALE FEATURES LIKE OUTFLOW
WINDS BRINGING COLD AIR IN FROM CANADA COULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA (SOME LOCALIZED AREAS SUCH AS YAKUTAT, SKAGWAY
AND HAINES COULD BE COLDER. THE STRENGTH OF THE OUTFLOW WINDS,
WHICH IS WHAT IS CAUSING THE TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY, IS GOING TO
BE DEPENDENT OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR THE MOST PART
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT AREAS
SUCH AS LYNN CANAL AND CROSS SOUND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS
THE NORTH, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. FOR PASI ON OVER TO PAPG AND SOUTH, CLOUD DECKS WILL
SLOWLY LOWER ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
MVFR VIS AND CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY FOR PAKT AND PAKW, AS LIGHT SNOW LIFTS UP INTO THE SOUTHER
PANHANDLE.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH NEAR PAGY AND
PAJN. ALONG WITH THIS, LLWS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR PAYA, PAJN
AND PAGS. THIS SET UP COULD MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FLIGHT OVER
GASTINEAU CHANNEL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING OVER DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU. WEAK LLWS COULD BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. OUTSIDE OF
THE TYPICAL OUTFLOW AND GAP WIND LOCATIONS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 10KT OR LESS.
MARINE...
INSIDE WATERS: OUTFLOW WINDS RAMP UP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND POTENTIALLY
THE WEEKEND. ANTICIPATE 25-35 KT (STRONG BREEZE TO GALE FORCE)
SUSTAINED WINDS FOR MANY OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS, WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT. SOME
FREEZING SPRAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING, OVERNIGHT, AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, IS LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
CROSS SOUND, TAKU INLET, POINT COUVERDEN, AND OTHER KNOWN OUTFLOW
PATHS SHOULD ALSO BE WARY OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SEAS AND
WINDS THAN FORECAST AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN N/S INNER CHANNELS.
OUTSIDE WATERS: A LOW TAKING UP STATION IN THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL ENCOURAGE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OUTFLOW WINDS FROM KNOWN PASSAGEWAYS AND OUTFLOW
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLUMES OF GALE FORCE TO STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS STRETCHING OUT INTO THE GULF. WHILE WAVEHEIGHTS IN
MORE PROTECTED AREAS OF THE OUTER COAST WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE,
WAVEHEIGHTS IN OUTFLOW PLUMES WILL REACH 10-14 FT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ053.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-643-644-651-663-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031>035-641-642-661-662-672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...BUTWIN
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GFS
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