055
FXAK67 PAJK 251826 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1026 AM AKDT WED MAR 25 2026
UPDATE...AFTER 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE NORTH OF SITKA AND KAKE WITH OUTFLOW WINDS KEEPING
SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME LLWS AND TURBULENCE ARE IN STORE WITH SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF JUNEAU THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, CLOUD COVER IS MORE PREVALENT
THOUGH GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH HAVE CIGS DOWN TO 1500 FT AT TIMES.
THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY IMPACTING SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT INCLUDING ANNETTE ISLAND AND KETCHIKAN AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN CHANNELS AND NE GULF COAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU/SOUTH DOUGLAS
AND SKAGWAY THROUGH THE DAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO KETCHIKAN,
ANNETTE, AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
SHORT TERM
TWO DIFFERENT STORIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SE AK AS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS SEEING DRY WEATHER BUT WINDY
CONDITIONS, AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS OVERCAST SKIES AND
PRECIPITATION. FIRST LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS FROM SKAGWAY THROUGH LYNN CANAL
ARE NOT AS STRONG AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED BUT NEAR GALE TO GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
OVER SKAGWAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE MOVES
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND FORECAST HAS REMAINED
ON TRACK FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS ISLAND AS GUSTY
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUST WAS JUST SHORT OF 60 MPH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONGER
WINDS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO VERY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
EVENING, BUT EXPECT GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH TO CONTINUE.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD BRINGING OVERCAST SKIES AND PRECIPITATION. AS OF EARLY
THIS MORNING SNOW HAS BEGUN OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND, KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE ISLAND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN LOW BETWEEN 2 TO 4
INCHES DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. AS TEMPERATURES
INCREASE, IT IS LIKELY THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE TO A MORE
WINTRY MIX AS WELL AS ANY SNOW THAT HAS ACCUMULATED WILL QUICKLY
MELT. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, SNOW IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF ADMIRALTY ISLAND. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WITH THIS FRONT REACHES AREAS FARTHER NORTH BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATIONS. AGAIN, NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED DUE
TO DAY TIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MID TO HIGH 30S.
LONG TERM
A LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF ADMIRALTY ISLAND. WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 100-200 FEET AND THE INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING ANY SNOW
THAT DOES FALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AND WILL MELT DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS.
FOR THE DRY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TEMPERATURES
AND WIND ARE THE AREAS OF GREATEST INTEREST. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND WILL
POTENTIALLY BE WARMING UP TO UPPER 30S FOR THE PANHANDLE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, SMALLER SCALE FEATURES LIKE OUTFLOW
WINDS BRINGING COLD AIR IN FROM CANADA COULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA (SOME LOCALIZED AREAS SUCH AS YAKUTAT, SKAGWAY
AND HAINES COULD BE COLDER. THE STRENGTH OF THE OUTFLOW WINDS,
WHICH IS WHAT IS CAUSING THE TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY, IS GOING TO
BE DEPENDENT OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR THE MOST PART
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT AREAS
SUCH AS LYNN CANAL AND CROSS SOUND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS
THE NORTH, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. FOR PASI ON OVER TO PAPG AND SOUTH, CLOUD DECKS WILL
SLOWLY LOWER ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
MVFR VIS AND CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY FOR PAKT AND PAKW, AS LIGHT SNOW LIFTS UP INTO THE SOUTHER
PANHANDLE.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH NEAR PAGY AND
PAJN. ALONG WITH THIS, LLWS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR PAYA, PAJN
AND PAGS. THIS SET UP COULD MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FLIGHT OVER
GASTINEAU CHANNEL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING OVER DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU. WEAK LLWS COULD BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. OUTSIDE OF
THE TYPICAL OUTFLOW AND GAP WIND LOCATIONS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 10KT OR LESS.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FOR A MAJORITY OF THE INSIDE WATERS.
AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CLARENCE STRAIT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ESE WINDS DUE TO MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF. ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS YOU CAN ANTICIPATE FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES OF 17 TO 27 KTS WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
WINDS OF 28 TO 40 KTS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
LYNN CANAL (ESPECIALLY NEAR POINT COUVERDEN), OUT OF TAKU INLET,
AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND. ALONG WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS, FREEZING
SPRAY AND FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF, THEN MOVE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NORTH OF BARANOF ISLAND NNE WITH SW
WINDS JUST TO THE SOUTH PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. WITH THESE LOWS TO
THE SOUTH, OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST OUTFLOW
WINDS OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE OUT OF DANGEROUS RIVER, JUST SOUTH
OF YAKUTAT, AND CROSS SOUND. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
OTHERWISE, SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 6 TO 9 FT THROUGH THURSDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ053.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-053-643-644-651-663-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034>036-641-
642-661-662-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...BUTWIN
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...EAB
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