391
FXAK67 PAJK 260559 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
959 PM AKDT WED MAR 25 2026
UPDATE
AFTER THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
THINKING TONIGHT. DRIER OUTLOW OVER THE NOTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA, LOCALLY WINDY LOCATIONS THAT MY MEAN LLWS AND
TURBULENCE NEAR TERRAIN. MEANWHILE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO
DEAL WITH SHOWERS PART OF THE PANHANDLE. IN THE SHOWERS VISIBILITY
DROPS AND CEILINGS MAY CRASH AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 246 PM WED MAR 25
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN CHANNELS AND NE GULF COAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU/SOUTH DOUGLAS
AND SKAGWAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE, AND
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE DRY OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
COMING OUT THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY THROUGH SKAGWAY AND INTO NORTHERN
LYNN, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVERRIDING RIPINSKI RIDGE INTO
HAINES. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO COMING OUT OF TAKU INLET AND OVER
INTO DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS ISLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOWS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SKAGWAY,
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAY
BE A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT, BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN UPTICK
IN WINDS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE A BIT TOMORROW
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT EASES. HIGH TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT,
ESPECIALLY NEAR OUTFLOW REGIONS, AS MIXING OF THE COLDER BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS NOT RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES IN TEMPS LIKE WE SAW
YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. NIGHTTIME
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU. A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH PULLING NORTH OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UP THE THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, MULTIPLE LOWS OUT IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL APPROACH AND WILL PULL MULTIPLE TROUGHS/FRONTS THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE ACROSS KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE ISLAND, PORT ALEXANDER AND THE HIGHER
ROADS OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS
(GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES) ARE EXPECTED DUE TO DAY TIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MID TO HIGH 30S AND LATE MARCH
SOLAR INSOLATION. HOWEVER, DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS, COLDER AIR AND SURFACE TEMPS COULD RESULT IN BETTER
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL, WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE BEST
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A
STRONGER LOW AND FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
CONSIDERED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POW, ANNETTE AND
KETCHIKAN FOR TONIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS TO STAY BELOW THE
ADVISORY THRESHOLD (3 INCHES IN 12 HOURS). HOWEVER, IF TEMPS DIP
BELOW FREEZING, ANY SNOW OR REFREEZE WILL RESULT IN SLICK
ROADWAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPS
DIPPING TO NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING.
LONG TERM...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE, BARRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY STABLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF AK. THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WILL LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE, STEERING THE BULK OF THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE WEST COAST RATHER THAN INTO SE AK. THIS MEANS
LINGERING MODERATE STRENGTH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW, AND COLD LATE-SEASON
WINTER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A
SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF CLEARER SKIES WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE WITH THIS
OUTFLOW. THIS TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY UPSTREAM IMPULSES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AND AT THIS TIME,
DON'T EXPECT IT TO PROPERLY BREAK DOWN UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY ON HOW THEY WANT TO
BREAK APART THE PATTERN, SO CONFIDENCE IN WHAT SORT OR STRENGTH OF
SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BREAK DOWN THE CURRENT PATTERN REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERN SE AK WILL SEE SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN DECAYING LOW WILL SPIN OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, SENDING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PLACES LIKE PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND AND REVILLAGIGEDO ISLAND. ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWER
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY LIMITED TO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS
DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND AND
DISINTEGRATES ENTIRELY. BEYOND SATURDAY, LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED, BARRING A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, AND WILL LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THERE IS NOW GROWING EVIDENCE THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN THREAT CURRENTLY
IS SOUTHEASTERLY STRONG BREEZES TO GALE FORCE WINDS, AND ELEVATED
SEAS, ALONG THE COAST BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. MARINERS LOOKING TO
TRANSIT OR WORK THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO
THE FORECAST AND EXPECT CHANGES AS GUIDANCE GAINS MORE CONFIDENCE
ON THE LOW STRENGTH AND LOCATION.
AVIATION.../THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
THE PANHANDLE NORTH OF SITKA AND PETERSBURG WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
DRY AND COLD FROM OUTFLOW WINDS, KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR
INTO THURSDAY. THIS MEANS TURBULENCE AND IN SOME CASES LLWS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF JUNEAU WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
TO PICKUP ONCE MORE ALONG GASTINEAU CHANNEL WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
LASTING INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH GUSTY RIDGE TOP WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. FOR THE PANHANDLE SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE BRINGING INTERMITTENT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, WITH
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW MOVES INTO THE SE GULF. SITKA TO PETERSBURG IS THE GENERAL
DIVIDING LINE FOR SNOW EXTENT AND WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY TO SEE
HOW FAR NORTH SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): PERSISTENT OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH THE WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE GUSTS. STRONG WINDS UP TO
GALES WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED FOR LYNN CANAL, NEAR POINT
COUVERDEN AND OUT OF TAKU INLET. ALONG WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS,
FREEZING SPRAY AND FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE AT THEIR
LOWEST.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH OUTFLOW CONDITIONS OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OCEAN CROSSINGS. STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS OF NEAR GALE TO GALE
FORCE OUT OF DANGEROUS RIVER, JUST SOUTH OF YAKUTAT, AND CROSS
SOUND. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE LOWS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE OUTFLOW WEAKENS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR AKZ318-325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-053-644-651-664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-032-034>036-641>643-
661>663-671-672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GFS/PARK
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...DS
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