320
FXAK67 PAJK 261921
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1121 AM AKDT THU MAR 26 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
ONLY REAL UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCLUDE KAKE
AND PORT ALEXANDER INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE BANDS
OF SNOW HAVE PUSHED FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
MULTIPLE BANDS OF SNOW ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FURTHER NORTH, DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WITH
OUTFLOW CONTINUING.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN CHANNELS AND NE GULF COAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU/SOUTH DOUGLAS
AND SKAGWAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE, AND
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
SHORT TERM
A SIMILAR STORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVERCAST SKIES WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOOKING FIRST AT THE OUTFLOW, MINIMAL CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE WIND FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS
SLIGHTLY INCREASING WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL AS NORTHERLY GALE FORCE
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTHWARD. WIND ADVISORIES
ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR SKAGWAY, DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS
ISLAND. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT, BUT WIND
GUSTS ARE ONCE AGAIN GOING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THE SAME LOW THAT IS ALLOWING FOR OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS BRINGING WAVES OF PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT, ONE OF THESE WAVES BROUGHT SNOW ALL THE WAY
NORTHWARD INTO ADMIRALTY ISLAND. THERE WAS A SHORT TIME WHERE
SNOW WAS OBSERVED OVER THE JUNEAU AREA, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED. THE AREAS THAT ARE GETTING THE MOST SNOW
OUT OF THIS FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
AND KAKE. CONSISTENT SNOW WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR
LESS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT SATELLITE
INFORMATION AND DOT CAMERAS, THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE
OVER THE INLAND ROADWAY SYSTEM OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. THIS
SAME AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD. THIS ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL
BRING SNOW TO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, ANNETTE ISLAND, AND THE
KETCHIKAN AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS SNOW, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES,
WITH POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES, HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. FOR THOSE AREAS, MODERATE SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND NOON WITH
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON DAY TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT INLAND AREAS COULD REMAIN
COLDER.
LONG TERM
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
OF THE PANHANDLE, BARRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY STABLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF AK. THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WILL LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE, STEERING THE BULK OF THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE WEST COAST RATHER THAN INTO SE AK. THIS MEANS
LINGERING MODERATE STRENGTH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW, AND COLD LATE-SEASON
WINTER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A
SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF CLEARER SKIES WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE WITH THIS
OUTFLOW. THIS TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY UPSTREAM IMPULSES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AND AT THIS TIME,
DON'T EXPECT IT TO PROPERLY BREAK DOWN UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY ON HOW THEY WANT TO
BREAK APART THE PATTERN, SO CONFIDENCE IN WHAT SORT OR STRENGTH OF
SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BREAK DOWN THE CURRENT PATTERN REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERN SE AK WILL SEE SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN DECAYING LOW WILL SPIN OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, SENDING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PLACES LIKE PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND AND REVILLAGIGEDO ISLAND. ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWER
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY LIMITED TO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS
DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND AND
DISINTEGRATES ENTIRELY. BEYOND SATURDAY, LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED, BARRING A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, AND WILL LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION.../THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND FOR PAYA WITH PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE HOWEVER, WITH WINDS 10-20G20-32KT FOR
PAHN AND PAGY. FOR PAYA, PAGS AND PAJN, WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10KTS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES THAT VARIOUS PILOT REPORTS OF TURBULENCE AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WERE RECEIVED OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY AROUND JUNEAU.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ACROSS THE SOUTH, POCKETS
OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD, BRINGING
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR PAPG, PAWG, PAKT AND PAKW. IFR VIS AND
CIGS EXPECTED UNDER HEAVIER/STEADIER SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR PAKT AND
PAKW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PASI WILL GENERALLY SEE VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NEARBY. VFR VIS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
IF SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO MAKE TO THE AIRSPACE. GUSTY WINDS
10-15G20-25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
PASI, WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AND NEAR STRONG SNOW SHOWERS,
OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS
FOR PAKW AND PAKT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK FOR A MAJORITY OF THE INSIDE WATERS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS CLARENCE STRAIT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ESE WINDS DUE TO
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.
ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS YOU CAN ANTICIPATE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
OF 17 TO 27 KTS WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OF 28 TO 40 KTS.
THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS LYNN CANAL (ESPECIALLY
NEAR POINT COUVERDEN), OUT OF TAKU INLET, AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE OVERNIGHT WAS SLIGHTLY INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS S LYNN CANAL WITH BOTH LITTLE ISLAND AND POINT COUVERDEN
SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KTS. ALONG
WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS, FREEZING SPRAY AND FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF SENDING SHORTWAVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THESE LOWS WILL KEEP WINDS NORTH OF
BARANOF ISLAND NNE WITH SW WINDS JUST TO THE SOUTH PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND. WITH THESE LOWS TO THE SOUTH, OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE OUT
OF DANGEROUS RIVER, JUST SOUTH OF YAKUTAT, AND CROSS SOUND. OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12
FT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE, SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 6
TO 9 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE OUTFLOW WEAKENS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318-325.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ327.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-032-034-036-053-641>644-
651-661>664.
UPDATE...DS
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...GFS/PARK
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...EAB
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