348
FXAK67 PAJK 270625 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1025 PM AKDT THU MAR 26 2026
UPDATE
STRONGER WINDS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL SO
GALE WARNINGS EXTENDED TO 1 AM TONIGHT.
FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE - NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ALTERATIONS TO WHAT
THE FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWERS SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER ARE ROTATING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
VERY SLIM CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS MY FORM A THUNDERSTORM,
ONLY 1 STRIKE SO FAR FROM THE SATELLITE DETECTION ALGORITHMS.
NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS ONLY TURBULENCE OR WIND SHEAR ISSUES
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 3 PM THU MAR 26
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN CHANNELS AND NE GULF COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE, AND
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
- POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE IN MONDAY.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE
PANHANDLE REMAINS SHARPLY DIVIDED BETWEEN TWO WEATHER PATTERNS.
ALOFT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE WITH ITS
SE FLANK LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE SW COAST.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK WILL CONTINUE TO ENJOY
DRIER WEATHER, SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES, AND
OUTFLOW WINDS OFFSHORE FLOW WITH NOTHING BEYOND A FEW FLURRIES
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL SPIKE UPWARDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE PLUNGING BACK DOWN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY CONTRAST WILL SEE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH AS A DECAYING SURFACE LOW MEANDERS DIRECTLY OVER THE
FAR SOUTH, BEFORE FINALLY DISINTEGRATING ON SUNDAY. GIVEN
CONTINUED STRONG CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
UP THROUGH ~500 MB, THINK THAT THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW,
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON SNOWFALL TOTALS, WITH SNOW MELTING AS FAST AS
IT CAN FALL IN SOME LOCALES. WHILE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, FINAL SNOW TOTALS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE HIGHLY VARIABLE, WITH ANYWHERE BETWEEN 4-15 INCHES
OF SNOW NEAR SEA LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE LONG TERM FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL, WITH ONLY A FEW CHANGES MADE.
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A BREAK
DAY FOR THE SOUTH, ALLOWING THE WHOLE PANHANDLE THE CHANCE TO SEE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
DETERIORATING LOW TAPER OFF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PANHANDLE PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST TIP
LARGELY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, STEERING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AWAY FROM SE AK. A 500 MB
LOW MOVES ALONG THE DEEPEST PART OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
PROCEEDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
SURFACE INFLECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE OUTER GULF COAST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
MONDAY, THOUGH THIS DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO MAKE IT
TOO FAR INLAND.
A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUMPS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR
SOUTH FOR THE RESULTING FRONTAL BAND TO MAKE IT TO THE PANHANDLE.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE INITIAL WARM FRONT TO COMBINE WITH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE SHORTWAVE BAND, WHICH WOULD BRING A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND PART OF
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-8 TO -10 DEGREES C) WOULD KEEP MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AS SNOW, WITH THE CHANCE TO MIX INTO RAIN THROUGH
MIDDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S, COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE, WILL MAKE
IT SO MOST SNOWFALL DOES NOT ACCUMULATE UNTIL THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES DECREASE.
THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR LONG, DIPPING SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE EXACT
IMPACTS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK, AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL VERY
SPLIT ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND RESULTING FRONT. THE EC IS
FAVORING THE FRONT SWEEPING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, WHILE
THE GFS IS KEEPING IT MORE OFFSHORE. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE, WITH
MORE CERTAINTY ON THE FRONT AT LEAST REACHING THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE DOES AGREE ON THE EXITING OF THE LOW, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON CUTTING DOWN ON POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE GOING UP THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND, THOUGH THEY AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE
VERY STRONG. BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, LIGHT
OUTFLOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER
LYNN CANAL. THIS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH LYNN
CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE, AS WELL AS AROUND POINT COUVERDEN AND
OUT OF CROSS SOUND. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
INTO THE EARLY WEEK, POTENTIAL CLOUDING UP MORE BY TUESDAY WITH THE
WEAK FRONTAL BAND.
AVIATION.../THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND FOR PAYA WITH PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE HOWEVER, WITH WINDS 12-20G22-32KT FOR
PAHN AND PAGY. FOR PAYA, PAGS AND PAJN, WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10KTS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES THAT VARIOUS PILOT REPORTS OF TURBULENCE AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WERE RECEIVED OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY AROUND JUNEAU.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ACROSS THE SOUTH, POCKETS
OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD, BRINGING
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR PAPG, PAWG, PAKT AND PAKW. IFR VIS AND
CIGS EXPECTED UNDER HEAVIER/STEADIER SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR PAKT AND
PAKW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PASI WILL GENERALLY SEE VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NEARBY. VFR VIS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
IF SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO MAKE TO THE AIRSPACE. GUSTY WINDS
10-15G20-25KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND PASI, WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AND NEAR STRONGER SNOW
SHOWERS, OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LLWS FOR PAKW AND PAKT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE INSIDE WATERS WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF
17 TO 27 KTS WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS 28 TO 40 KT. AN
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CLARENCE STRAIT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ESE
WINDS DUE TO MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ALONG LYNN CANAL (ESPECIALLY NEAR POINT COUVERDEN), OUT OF TAKU
INLET, AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND. ALONG WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS,
FREEZING SPRAY AND FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF SENDING SHORTWAVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THESE LOWS WILL KEEP WINDS NORTH OF
BARANOF ISLAND NNE WITH SW WINDS JUST TO THE SOUTH PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND. WITH THESE LOWS TO THE SOUTH, OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE OUT
OF DANGEROUS RIVER, JUST SOUTH OF YAKUTAT, AND CROSS SOUND. OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12
FT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE, SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 6
TO 9 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE OUTFLOW WEAKENS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ327.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ328-330-
332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-032-034-053-641>644-651-
661>664-671.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
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