851
FXAK67 PAJK 271850
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1050 AM AKDT FRI MAR 27 2026
UPDATE.../TO ADD THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION/
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN CHANNELS AND NE GULF COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE, AND
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
- POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE IN MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/ THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE VS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO BE RATHER DIFFERENT WEATHER
WISE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. FROM FREDERICK SOUND SOUTHWARD
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE DUE TO A LOW OFF OF PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND SPREADING THEM INTO THE AREA. SNOW IS THE MAIN PRECIP
TYPE EXCEPT FOR AREAS ON THE WEST COAST OF POW ISLAND WHICH ARE
WARM ENOUGH FOR MORE OF A MIX TO BE OBSERVED. THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE MEANWHILE IS STILL DEALING WITH OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
CLEARER SKIES.
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST GENERALLY HAS THE SAME PATTERN OF
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTH CONTINUING
THOUGH BOTH SHOW A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND INTO SATURDAY. FOR
THE SOUTH, THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS WHAT AREAS WILL SEE
MOSTLY SNOW FROM THE SHOWERS AND IF SO, HOW MUCH. HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS FROM THE SHOWERS REMAIN CONCENTRATED FROM SUMNER STRAIT
SOUTHWARD THOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE GOING AS FAR NORTH AS KAKE AND
PETERSBURG THIS MORNING BEFORE THE BULK OF IT RETREATS SOUTH OF
SUMNER BY THIS EVENING. AS FOR PTYPE, CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE STILL
RATHER COLD WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -7C OVER ANNETTE ISLAND FROM
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SO UNLESS GROUND LEVEL TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW WHILE WARMER
AREAS SEE MORE OF A MIX. TEMPERATURES AT GROUND LEVEL WILL ALSO BE
THE MAIN CONTROL FOR HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION AN AREA GETS WITH
AREAS NEAR THE WATER OF THE CHANNELS LIKELY WARMING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S DURING THE AFTERNOONS LIMITING HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES BEFORE MELTING WHILE INLAND AREAS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS STAY COLDER WITH SNOW ACCUMULATING MORE. AS SUCH, THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
FOR THE NORTH, OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE UNDER CLEARER SKIES. LYNN
CANAL, AND TAKU INLET SHOW THE HIGHER WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS
BLOWING OUT OF BOTH THIS MORNING. THAT IS EXPECTED TO START
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE YUKON HIGH WEAKENS AS WELL. BY
TONIGHT, ONLY LYNN CANAL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE 25 KT WINDS STILL
WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. THE
NORTH WILL ALSO RETAIN LESS CLOUDS AND BE MAINLY DRY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LONG TERM FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL, WITH ONLY A FEW CHANGES MADE.
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A BREAK
DAY FOR THE SOUTH, ALLOWING THE WHOLE PANHANDLE THE CHANCE TO SEE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
DETERIORATING LOW TAPER OFF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PANHANDLE PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST TIP
LARGELY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, STEERING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AWAY FROM SE AK. A 500 MB
LOW MOVES ALONG THE DEEPEST PART OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
PRECEDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
SURFACE INFLECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE OUTER GULF COAST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
MONDAY, THOUGH THIS DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO MAKE IT
TOO FAR INLAND.
A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUMPS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR
SOUTH FOR THE RESULTING FRONTAL BAND TO MAKE IT TO THE PANHANDLE.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE INITIAL WARM FRONT TO COMBINE WITH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE SHORTWAVE BAND, WHICH WOULD BRING A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND PART OF
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-8 TO -10 DEGREES C) WOULD KEEP MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AS SNOW, WITH THE CHANCE TO MIX INTO RAIN THROUGH
MIDDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S, COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE, WILL MAKE
IT SO MOST SNOWFALL DOES NOT ACCUMULATE UNTIL THE EVENING OR
NIGHTTIME HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES DECREASE.
THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR LONG, DIPPING SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE EXACT
IMPACTS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK, AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL VERY
SPLIT ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND RESULTING FRONT. THE EC IS
FAVORING THE FRONT SWEEPING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, WHILE
THE GFS IS KEEPING IT MORE OFFSHORE. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE, WITH
MORE CERTAINTY ON THE FRONT AT LEAST REACHING THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE DOES AGREE ON THE EXITING OF THE LOW, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON CUTTING DOWN ON POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE GOING UP THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND, THOUGH THEY AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE
VERY STRONG. BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, LIGHT
OUTFLOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER
LYNN CANAL. THIS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH LYNN
CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE, AS WELL AS AROUND POINT COUVERDEN AND
OUT OF CROSS SOUND. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
INTO THE EARLY WEEK, POTENTIAL CLOUDING UP MORE BY TUESDAY WITH THE
WEAK FRONTAL BAND.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z SATURDAY/
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
REMAINS DOMINATED BY A NORTHERLY OUTFLOW PATTERN, THOUGH IT IS
WEAKENING. THEREFORE, EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS FOR THAT
AREA THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, A
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THEIR AREA, WHICH WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH WILL
REDUCE CIG & VIS CONDITIONS TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY RANGE WHEN
THEY OCCUR. BETWEEN THESE SNOW SHOWERS, FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE
AS HIGH AS THE VFR CATEGORY. GENERALLY, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO THE VFR/MVFR CATEGORY RANGE AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN & PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS TIME PROGRESSES. SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, INCLUDING PAGY & PAHN, WITH A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND
AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THAT REGION LOOSENS UP AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON THAT HAS BEEN
CAUSING THE OUTFLOW WEAKENS. NORTHEASTERLY LLWS OF AROUND 30 KT
CENTERED ALOFT AT AROUND 1.5 KFT AROUND THE PAJN AREA LOOKS TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS...OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN CHANNELS REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY 25
TO 30 KT WINDS ARE BLOWING DOWN LYNN CANAL, OUT OF TAKU INLET, AND
DOWN STEPHENS PASSAGE. THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
TONIGHT WITH ONLY LYNN CANAL RETAINING 25 KT WINDS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR MANY OF THE
THOSE NORTHERN CHANNELS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. OTHER WISE MOST AREAS
WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH OR EAST. CLARENCE
STRAIT IS THE EXCEPTION WITH MAINLY SE WINDS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO SWITCH TO A NW WINDS LATE TONIGHT. THE
HIGHER SEAS IN THE INNER CHANNELS ARE STILL MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE
OUTFLOW AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE LONGER FETCH AREAS OF LYNN CANAL AND
STEPHENS PASSAGE WHERE HIGH WINDS BLOWING DOWN THE LONG LINEAR
CHANNELS HAS BUILT SEAS TO 7 TO 10 FT. THOSE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH.
GULF WATERS...FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE GULF WITH ONLY A LOW NEAR
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND PRODUCING ANY WINDS OVER 20 KT RIGHT NOW
(25 KT MAX NEAR THAT LOW). THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY
BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY N TO
NW 20 KT OR LESS WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE GULF.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY LOW WITH 3 TO 8 FT SEAS BEING THE NORM (S SWELL
OF 3 TO 5 FT). DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED FOR SEAS AS WINDS AND
SWELL SUBSIDE. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE 5 FT OR LESS BY TONIGHT AND
LASTING INTO SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AT LEAST.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ328-330-
332.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-032-034-642-661.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAL
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