710
FXAK67 PAJK 281815
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1015 AM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2026
UPDATE.../TO ADD THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION/
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE, AND
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
- POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE IN MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WHILE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TODAY WITH
SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREDERICK SOUND
DOWN TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE. FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR LYNN CANAL AND TAKU INLET. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH COLD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHILE FARTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CLOSER TO FREEZING DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS
THAT SEE LESS CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WARMING.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LONG TERM FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL, WITH ONLY A FEW CHANGES MADE.
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A BREAK
DAY FOR THE SOUTH, ALLOWING THE WHOLE PANHANDLE THE CHANCE TO SEE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
DETERIORATING LOW TAPER OFF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST TIP LARGELY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE, STEERING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND AWAY FROM SE AK. A 500 MB LOW MOVES ALONG THE DEEPEST
PART OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PROCEEDED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE SURFACE INFLECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE OUTER GULF COAST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH THIS
DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER INLAND
THAN THE OUTER COAST.
A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUMPS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE TOO FAR
SOUTH FOR THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO MAKE IT TO THE PANHANDLE.
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONTAL BAND WILL CATCH UP
WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE SHORTWAVE BAND, WHICH WOULD BRING A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND PART OF THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS BAND
MAY EVEN MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED TO REFLECT THIS.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL THIS WILL JUST MANIFEST AS FLURRIES FOR ANY
LOCATION NORTH OF ANGOON. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-8 TO -10 DEGREES
C) WOULD KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION AS SNOW, WITH THE CHANCE TO
MIX INTO RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED SUN
ANGLE, WILL MAKE IT SO MOST SNOWFALL DOES NOT ACCUMULATE UNTIL THE
EVENING OR NIGHTTIME HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES DECREASE, ESPECIALLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE WATER.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEPART QUICKLY, DIPPING SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE EXACT IMPACTS THROUGH
THE EARLY WEEK, AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON THE
POSITION OF THE LOW AND RESULTING FRONT. THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE EC, THOUGH STILL MOVING OUT OF THE AREA MUCH FASTER
AND NOT LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE GOING UP THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS WITH THE
FRONTAL BAND, THOUGH THEY AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. BOTH
BEFORE AND AFTER THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, LIGHT OUTFLOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER LYNN CANAL. THIS
IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND
STEPHENS PASSAGE, AS WELL AS AROUND POINT COUVERDEN AND OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO THE
EARLY WEEK, POTENTIAL CLOUDING UP MORE BY TUESDAY WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL BAND. THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, SKIES WILL START CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH UNTIL A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE IS SEEING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY/
WINDS & LLWS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE ENTIRE 24-HOUR TAF
PERIOD. FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE PANHANDLE, EXPECT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE FULL FORECAST
TIMEFRAME. FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE PANHANDLE, SCATTERED SNOW &
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE
UNDER THOSE. BETWEEN THE SHOWERS, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, ONWARD, EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AS WE SEE
THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE GULF DROP TO THE SE. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR THE GULF. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 3-5 FT TODAY WITH THE SWELL DIRECTION
SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO W-NW DURING THE DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH STRONG BREEZES POSSIBLE FOR THE LYNN CANAL AND
TAKU INLET AREAS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND GENTLE
TO FRESH BREEZES. THE OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BETWEEN THE INNER CHANNELS
AND CANADA. THESE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN AGAIN WITH STRONG BREEZES
BECOMING LIKELY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3-5 FT WITH THE
OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUING WHILE ELSEWHERE, SEAS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 3
FT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...SF
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