346
FXAK67 PAJK 282339
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH SKIES
CLEARING IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
- A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST SUNDAY
MORNING, PRECEDING A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
- SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND OUTFLOW WINDS DIMINISH UP NORTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH CEILINGS
STARTING TO OPEN UP IN BETWEEN SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE. A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING OVER
PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL, BRINGING A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX WITH
MINIMAL TO NO ACCUMULATION. THESE SHOWERS ARE STEADILY CRAWLING
SOUTHEASTWARD, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO HYDER BEFORE CROSSING THE
BORDER INTO BC. ANOTHER POCKET OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY HEADING
TOWARDS PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, THOUGH DUE TO THEIR SOUTHEASTERN
TRACK, THIS MAY ONLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERNMOST TIP OF THE ISLAND. AS
THE FEW REMAINING POCKETS OF SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SKIES WILL LARGELY CLEAR OUT BY THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH LYNN
CANAL AND AROUND POINT COUVERDEN HAVE DECREASED FROM A PERSISTENT
20 TO 30 KTS TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TURN TO A MORE E/W DIRECTION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS PICK UP OUT OF CROSS SOUND INSTEAD.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF
SUNDAY MORNING, BRUSHING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OUTER
COAST BEFORE PUSHING OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE PANHANDLE.
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, WHICH MAY NOT ACTUALLY
ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE WARMER DAYTIME HOURS. THIS IS PRECEDING A
MORE ORGANIZED FRONT MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, AS A MAJORITY OF THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. CURRENTLY THINKING SNOW WILL MAKE IT
TO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX PREVAILING IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK/
THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUST SLIGHTLY, PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A 500
MB LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF, ENHANCING THE >75 KNOT JET TO THE SOUTH. THE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN EXPECTED, GALE FORCE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING NORTHWARDS FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
PANHANDLE. LARGEST QUESTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE WILL MOVE, AS THE PARENT LOW IS DROPPING SOUTH. AREAS FROM
ANGOON TO ICY STRAIT AND JUNEAU, THEREFORE, ARE THE MOST UNCERTAIN
WITH THIS FORECAST, WITH THE ADDED BENEFIT OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND
SNOW ACCUMULATION. DUE TO THE NEGATIVE TROUGH AXIS, IT IS POSSIBLE
TO HAVE A SOUTH TO NORTH BAND OF TERRAIN ENHANCED LIFT OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR, RELATIVE SHORT DURATION, AND A PRESENT DRY LAYER THAT
MOISTURE WILL NEED TO PUNCH THROUGH, NOT EXPECTING LARGE
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. LIQUID EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES HAVE
AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY JUNEAU AND ICY STRAIT) TO EXCEED 0.2 INCHES
EVERY 6 HOURS, WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO 6 INCHES OVER A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY GOING FORWARD,
BUT CURRENT FORECAST REPRESENTS A MORE REALISTIC FORECAST OF AROUND
3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THESE AREAS. FOR ANGOON,
TENAKEE SPRINGS AND SOUTH, THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE
SNOW, BUT WARM WET BULB SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
FOR DOWN SOUTH, EXPECTING LARGELY ALL RAIN, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE
UPPER ELEVATIONS OF POW ISLAND EARLY ON. GALES OFF THE WESTERN COAST
OF POW ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO WIND GUSTS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. COULD SEE THESE GUSTS FOR
METLAKATLA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KETCHIKAN; HOWEVER, AS THIS FRONT
IS MORE EASTERLY IN NATURE, THESE AREAS COULD SEE LESS WIND THAN
EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY SEES ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE DAY AND NIGHT, AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
LATE WEEK SEES ANOTHER FRONTAL FEATURE MOVE INTO SEAK, BRINGING
MOSTLY WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE AT
SEA LEVEL, AND MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z MONDAY/
FOR THE MOST PART, SFC WINDS &
LLWS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE
ENTIRE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST OR NORTHWEST FOR PAGY & PAHN, RESPECTIVELY, FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE NORTHERN 4/5 OF THE PANHANDLE, EXPECT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE FULL FORECAST
TIMEFRAME. FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/5 OF THE PANHANDLE, ISOLATED SNOW &
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY UNDER THOSE. BETWEEN THE SHOWERS, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON, ONWARD, EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TODAY, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS SWATH
OF WINDS IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, WHILE
OUTFLOW WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES AND CROSS SOUND PICK UP IN
THE NORTHERN GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 3 TO 5 FT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH UP TO 2 FT OF WESTERLY SWELL. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO IMPACT THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY,
BRINGING A SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEIGHTENED SEAS OF 15 TO
20 FT IN THE AREAS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS BY TUESDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH LYNN
CANAL, POINT COUVERDEN, AND OUT OF TAKU INLET DOWN NORTHERN
STEPHENS PASSAGE HAVE DECREASED TO GENTLE AND MODERATE BREEZES
THROUGH THE DAY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO
TIGHTEN AGAIN WITH A FEW HOURS OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES LIKELY.
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THE N/S ORIENTED OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TURNS MORE E/W'LY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO MODERATE BREEZES THROUGH ICY STRAIT AND
OUT CROSS SOUND, AS WELL AS OTHER TYPICAL PASSAGES THAT ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS DIRECTION SUCH AS OUT OF FREDERICK SOUND NEAR
FIVE FINGER LIGHTHOUSE AND OUT OF KEKU STRAIT. SEAS MAY INCREASE
UP TO 5 FT WHERE OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST BEFORE DROPPING
DOWN TO A MORE UNIFORM 2 TO 3 FT INTO MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...ZTK
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