936
FXAK67 PAJK 290608 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1008 PM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2026
EVENING AND AVIATION UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THIS EVENING ASIDE FROM NUDGING
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TO MATCH ONGOING OBSERVATIONS AND BLENDING
FORWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL FROM FREDERICK SOUND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
FURTHER SOUTH, A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH PERIODS OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY
PASSING BY WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 SM REPORTED AT KETCHIKAN.
THROUGH TONIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN COVERAGE WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAILING WIDESPREAD INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COAST THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREDOMINANT
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING
WITH CIGS AOA 4500 AND VISBYS GREATER THAN 6 MILES. BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH PROBS AND COVERAGE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN SEAK
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION GENERALLY REMAINING
ALONG THE COAST, BUT COULD STILL SEE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR VISBYS AND MVFR CIGS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SNOW.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AROUND 10KTS OR LESS,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 20KTS. NO LLWS CONCERNS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 339 PM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH SKIES
CLEARING IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
- A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST SUNDAY
MORNING, PRECEDING A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
- SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS
TAPER OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTFLOW WINDS DIMINISH UP
NORTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH CEILINGS STARTING TO OPEN UP IN BETWEEN SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE. A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS ARE STILL
MOVING OVER PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL, BRINGING A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
MIX WITH MINIMAL TO NO ACCUMULATION. THESE SHOWERS ARE STEADILY
CRAWLING SOUTHEASTWARD, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO HYDER BEFORE
CROSSING THE BORDER INTO BC. ANOTHER POCKET OF SHOWERS IS
CURRENTLY HEADING TOWARDS PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, THOUGH DUE TO
THEIR SOUTHEASTERN TRACK, THIS MAY ONLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERNMOST
TIP OF THE ISLAND. AS THE FEW REMAINING POCKETS OF SHOWERS MOVE
OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SKIES WILL LARGELY CLEAR
OUT BY THE EVENING HOURS. FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, OUTFLOW
WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND AROUND POINT COUVERDEN HAVE DECREASED
FROM A PERSISTENT 20 TO 30 KTS TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TURN TO A MORE E/W DIRECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND SPEEDS PICK UP OUT OF CROSS SOUND
INSTEAD.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF
SUNDAY MORNING, BRUSHING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OUTER
COAST BEFORE PUSHING OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE PANHANDLE.
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, WHICH MAY NOT ACTUALLY
ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE WARMER DAYTIME HOURS. THIS IS PRECEDING A
MORE ORGANIZED FRONT MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, AS A MAJORITY OF THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. CURRENTLY THINKING SNOW WILL MAKE IT
TO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX PREVAILING IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUST SLIGHTLY, PARTICULARLY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A 500 MB LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF, ENHANCING THE
>75 KNOT JET TO THE SOUTH. THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLE BY MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPECTED,
GALE FORCE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVING NORTHWARDS FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE PANHANDLE. LARGEST
QUESTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE,
AS THE PARENT LOW IS DROPPING SOUTH. AREAS FROM ANGOON TO ICY
STRAIT AND JUNEAU, THEREFORE, ARE THE MOST UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
FORECAST, WITH THE ADDED BENEFIT OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
ACCUMULATION. DUE TO THE NEGATIVE TROUGH AXIS, IT IS POSSIBLE TO
HAVE A SOUTH TO NORTH BAND OF TERRAIN ENHANCED LIFT OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR, RELATIVE SHORT DURATION, AND A PRESENT DRY LAYER
THAT MOISTURE WILL NEED TO PUNCH THROUGH, NOT EXPECTING LARGE
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. LIQUID EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES HAVE
AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY JUNEAU AND ICY STRAIT) TO EXCEED 0.2 INCHES
EVERY 6 HOURS, WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO 6 INCHES OVER A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY GOING FORWARD,
BUT CURRENT FORECAST REPRESENTS A MORE REALISTIC FORECAST OF
AROUND 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THESE AREAS. FOR
ANGOON, TENAKEE SPRINGS AND SOUTH, THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE
COULD BE SNOW, BUT WARM WET BULB SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
FOR DOWN SOUTH, EXPECTING LARGELY ALL RAIN, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY
THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF POW ISLAND EARLY ON. GALES OFF THE WESTERN
COAST OF POW ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO WIND GUSTS FOR
THE WESTERN PORTION BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. COULD SEE THESE GUSTS FOR
METLAKATLA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KETCHIKAN; HOWEVER, AS THIS
FRONT IS MORE EASTERLY IN NATURE, THESE AREAS COULD SEE LESS WIND
THAN EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY SEES ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, CLEARING SKIES
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
LATE WEEK SEES ANOTHER FRONTAL FEATURE MOVE INTO SEAK, BRINGING
MOSTLY WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE
AT SEA LEVEL, AND MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z MONDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART, SFC WINDS & LLWS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE ENTIRE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SFC
WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR NORTHWEST FOR
PAGY & PAHN, RESPECTIVELY, FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE NORTHERN
4/5 OF THE PANHANDLE, EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE FULL FORECAST TIMEFRAME. FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/5
OF THE PANHANDLE, ISOLATED SNOW & RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING
CONDITIONS DOWN TO THE MVFR CATEGORY UNDER THOSE. BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON, ONWARD,
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS WELL.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TODAY, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS SWATH
OF WINDS IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, WHILE
OUTFLOW WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES AND CROSS SOUND PICK UP IN
THE NORTHERN GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 3 TO 5 FT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH UP TO 2 FT OF WESTERLY SWELL. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO IMPACT THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY,
BRINGING A SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEIGHTENED SEAS OF 15 TO
20 FT IN THE AREAS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS BY TUESDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH LYNN
CANAL, POINT COUVERDEN, AND OUT OF TAKU INLET DOWN NORTHERN
STEPHENS PASSAGE HAVE DECREASED TO GENTLE AND MODERATE BREEZES
THROUGH THE DAY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO
TIGHTEN AGAIN WITH A FEW HOURS OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES LIKELY.
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THE N/S ORIENTED OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TURNS MORE E/W'LY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO MODERATE BREEZES THROUGH ICY STRAIT AND
OUT CROSS SOUND, AS WELL AS OTHER TYPICAL PASSAGES THAT ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS DIRECTION SUCH AS OUT OF FREDERICK SOUND NEAR
FIVE FINGER LIGHTHOUSE AND OUT OF KEKU STRAIT. SEAS MAY INCREASE
UP TO 5 FT WHERE OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST BEFORE DROPPING
DOWN TO A MORE UNIFORM 2 TO 3 FT INTO MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...ZTK
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