665
FXAK67 PAJK 291836
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1036 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2026
UPDATE.../TO ADD THE 18Z AVIATION SECTION/
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH SKIES
CLEARING IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
- A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST THIS MORNING,
PRECEDING A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
- SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. RADAR RETURNS FROM SITKA THIS MORNING
SHOW SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE OUTER COAST. AREAS CURRENTLY SITTING
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES NOT DROP AS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY DID YESTERDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THIS MORNING INTO TODAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WEAK FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE PANHANDLE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN SEEING AS WELL AS
LIMITED MOISTURE. ANY PLACES THAT DO SEE SNOW COULD SEE IT QUICKLY
ACCUMULATE BEFORE STARTING TO MELT DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING SUN ANGLE.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK/
THE LONG TERM
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUST SLIGHTLY, PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A 500 MB LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF, ENHANCING THE >75 KNOT JET TO
THE SOUTH. THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. AT THE
SURFACE, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPECTED, GALE FORCE SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING NORTHWARDS FROM
THE SOUTH OVER THE PANHANDLE. LARGEST QUESTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS
HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE, AS THE PARENT LOW IS
DROPPING SOUTH. AREAS FROM ANGOON TO ICY STRAIT AND JUNEAU,
THEREFORE, ARE THE MOST UNCERTAIN WITH THIS FORECAST, WITH THE
ADDED BENEFIT OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW ACCUMULATION. DUE TO
THE NEGATIVE TROUGH AXIS, IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A SOUTH TO NORTH
BAND OF TERRAIN ENHANCED LIFT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR, RELATIVE
SHORT DURATION, AND A PRESENT DRY LAYER THAT MOISTURE WILL NEED TO
PUNCH THROUGH, NOT EXPECTING LARGE ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES HAVE AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR
AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION (MAINLY JUNEAU
AND ICY STRAIT) TO EXCEED 0.2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS, WHICH WOULD
TRANSLATE INTO 6 INCHES OVER A 12 HOUR PERIOD. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY GOING FORWARD, BUT CURRENT FORECAST
REPRESENTS A MORE REALISTIC FORECAST OF AROUND 3 INCHES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THESE AREAS. FOR ANGOON, TENAKEE SPRINGS
AND SOUTH, THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE SNOW, BUT WARM
WET BULB SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
FOR DOWN SOUTH, EXPECTING LARGELY ALL RAIN, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE
UPPER ELEVATIONS OF POW ISLAND EARLY ON. GALES OFF THE WESTERN COAST
OF POW ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO WIND GUSTS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. COULD SEE THESE GUSTS FOR
METLAKATLA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KETCHIKAN; HOWEVER, AS THIS FRONT
IS MORE EASTERLY IN NATURE, THESE AREAS COULD SEE LESS WIND THAN
EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY SEES ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE DAY AND NIGHT, AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
LATE WEEK SEES ANOTHER FRONTAL FEATURE MOVE INTO SEAK, BRINGING
MOSTLY WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE AT
SEA LEVEL, AND MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z MONDAY/
MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR MAJORITY IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE PRESENT OFF & JUST NEAR
THE OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE. THEY WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
FARTHER INTO THE PANHANDLE AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
BRINGING PERIODS OF PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS &/OR VISS WITH POTENTIAL
TEMPORARY DIPS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER,
MAINLY AROUND THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST / PASI AREA. THESE WILL
GENERALLY STAY SOUTH OF THE ICY STRAIT AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 3/4THS
OF THE PANHANDLE UP TO THE ICY STRAIT / JUNEAU AREA & EVENTUALLY
MAKING IT UP TO PAGS INTO MONDAY WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING
IN FREQUENCY & INTENSITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
MORE FREQUENT MVFR & DIPS INTO IFR CONDITONS DUE TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS INTO MONDAY. BENIGN SFC WINDS &
LLWS REMAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES
CONTINUE FOR THE GULF TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA BRINGING JUST SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LESS THAN 6 FT FOR MOST OF THE GULF TODAY WITH THE LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STRONG
BREEZES LATER TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
HEADED INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WE SEE WINDS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE FINALLY
DIVING TO THE SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM 3-6 FT TO
18-25 FT AS THIS NEXT LOW AFFECTS THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE TODAY,
ALBEIT A LITTLE LESS STRONG WITH MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES BEING
REPORTED. ELSEWHERE, WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. WINDS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT ARE
ALREADY NOT LIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO LESS THAN 3
FT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS OUTFLOW
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN RESPONSE TO A LOW MOVING
PAST THE AREA BEFORE DIVING SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ644-652-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...SF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page