307
FXAK67 PAJK 300600 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1000 PM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2026
EVENING AND AVIATION UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM INTO MONDAY. TWEAKED WIND DIRECTIONS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING SEABREEZES HAVE COME
TO AN END, OTHERWISE WINDS REMAIN ON TRACK, REMAINING 10KTS/12
MPH OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
PREDOMINATE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 4000FT OR GREATER WITH
PREVAILING VISBYS GREATER THAN 6SM. WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
DRIVE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE S PANHANDLE,
WITH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR VISBYS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SITKA TO KAKE
TO PETERSBURG. NOT ANTICIPATING TOO MUCH IMPROVEMENT MOVING INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS MORE WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS PUSH INLAND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ORGANIZED FRONT, WITH INTERMITTENT IFR VISBYS
EXPECTED ONCE MORE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TURN MORE STRATIFORM THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, AROUND 10KTS OR LESS, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 20KTS TOMORROW EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER WILL
START TO SEE SOME ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT MOVING INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL INCLUSION OF LLWS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL TAF SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 500 PM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH SKIES
CLEARING IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING GALES ALONG THE SEAK
COAST AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
- SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM...COUPLE THINGS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE ALASKA INTERIOR. THIS COMBINED WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER WARM
FROM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COLD ENOUGH TO AT LEAST HAVE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE INITIAL FRONT,
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SLEET (GRAUPEL) SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION BEFORE TRANSITION, UP TO TWO INCHES
IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION. AS THE FRONT GETS TO ICY STRAIT, MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE YUKON IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE ENTIRE PROFILE BELOW
0 DEGREE WETBULB. THIS COMBINED WITH VORTICITY AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH SNOW SHOWERS. QUITE UNCERTAIN ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME,
WITH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS THE BIG QUESTION HERE, WITH MOISTURE RICH
SCENARIOS, STILL SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY AT AROUND 30%, PRODUCING
GREATER THAN 5 INCHES FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION IN ICY STRAIT. AT
THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR RANGES BETWEEN 2-4
INCHES, BUT THIS COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM LOCATION TO
LOCATION. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS MAY BE A NOWCASTING SCENARIO TO SEE
THE MINOR DETAILS IN THE ATMOSPHERE SHORTLY BEFORE IT HITS.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK/...
TUESDAY A GALE FORCE LOW NEAR 985MB WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA, MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH NEAR-GALE,
TO GALE FORCE, ESE WINDS IMPACTING OUR COAST FROM DIXON ENTRANCE
NORTH TOWARD THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS. MARINERS OPERATING IN THE
DIRECT LEE OF CHICHAGOF/BARANOF WILL BE SHELTERED FROM WINDS A
BIT, LIKELY ONLY SEEING STRONG BREEZES, WITH THE MORE EXPOSED
WESTERN COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES SEEING THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE ON THEIR WAY UP, WITH SOUTHERLY FRESH SEAS 12 TO 15 FT
MOVING INTO THE COAST, WITH 20 FT SE FRESH SEAS FURTHER OFFSHORE.
MARINERS OPERATING IN SITKA SOUND SHOULD WATCH THE MARINE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE LOW’S PATH
COULD DIRECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTHERLY SEAS INTO THE COAST. FOR
FOLKS IN CLARENCE STRAIT TO SOUTHERN CHATHAM, ANTICIPATE SE WINDS
OF NEAR-GALES TO GALE FORCE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS OF
8 TO 10 FT SOUTH OF GRAVINA ISLAND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, AND SNOW/RAIN IN
THE CENTRAL/SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE TRENDING DOWN.
EXPECT DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARMER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE RAIN, RATHER THAN
SNOW.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF AND PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND EXIT THE
AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN DOWN
TO NEAR HAIDA GWAII. A GALE FORCE WARM OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE NE WILL "STALL" OFF THE COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH TUESDAY. SEQUENTIAL SEAS WILL BUILD SOMEWHAT
RAPIDLY ALONG THE OUTSIDE WATERS, FROM STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER A LONG FETCH. EXPECTING TO SEE SEAS
BETWEEN 18-23 IN THE OUTSIDE WATERS.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): THE APPROACHING LOW ON MONDAY WILL
TRANSITION OUR HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS DOMINATING THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO NORTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM MODERATE TO
STRONG BREEZES THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE WINDS
MAXIMIZE, RANGING FROM A STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL, ICY STRAIT (OUT OF
GLACIER BAY), AND SOUTH OF POINT COUVERDEN AND GRAVE POINT IN
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT AND STEPHENS PASSAGE RESPECTIVELY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ644-661-662-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NC
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