352
FXAK67 PAJK 301239
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
439 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
- SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM
SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING AS A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ARE
RUNNING WARMER THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL REMAINING POSSIBLE FOR THE
AREA. THE AREAS FOR THE BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD SLOW
SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY THANKS INCREASED SOLAR RADIATION. THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN 2-4",
ESPECIALLY IF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TAKES PLACE.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK/
TUESDAY A GALE FORCE LOW NEAR 985MB WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA, MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH NEAR-GALE,
TO GALE FORCE, ESE WINDS IMPACTING OUR COAST FROM DIXON ENTRANCE
NORTH TOWARD THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS. MARINERS OPERATING IN THE
DIRECT LEE OF CHICHAGOF/BARANOF WILL BE SHELTERED FROM WINDS A
BIT, LIKELY ONLY SEEING STRONG BREEZES, WITH THE MORE EXPOSED
WESTERN COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES SEEING THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE ON THEIR WAY UP, WITH SOUTHERLY FRESH SEAS 12 TO 15 FT
MOVING INTO THE COAST, WITH 20 FT SE FRESH SEAS FURTHER OFFSHORE.
MARINERS OPERATING IN SITKA SOUND SHOULD WATCH THE MARINE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE LOW’S PATH
COULD DIRECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTHERLY SEAS INTO THE COAST. FOR
FOLKS IN CLARENCE STRAIT TO SOUTHERN CHATHAM, ANTICIPATE SE WINDS
OF NEAR-GALES TO GALE FORCE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS OF
8 TO 10 FT SOUTH OF GRAVINA ISLAND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, AND SNOW/RAIN IN
THE CENTRAL/SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE TRENDING DOWN.
EXPECT DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARMER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE RAIN, RATHER THAN
SNOW.
AVIATION.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
FOR THE PERIOD FROM THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR ON SOUTH. BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VIS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER/STEADIER
SNOW. FOR PAYA, SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD DROP VIS/CIGS DOWN
TO IFR BEFORE BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS PUSH OFF
TO THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR PAHN AND
PAGY EVEN THOUGH CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 4-5KFT TONIGHT. LIGHTER
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WILL START
TO SEE SOME ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE PANHANDLE, WITH
POTENTIAL INCLUSION OF LLWS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TAF SITES.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE IN AN UPWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL AS BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AS OUR SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE. THIS
LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL "STALL" OFF THE COAST OF PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND BEFORE THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTHEAST EXITING THE
REGION AND FRONT DISSIPATES TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
FRESH BREEZES UP TO GALES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE
OUTER COAST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD FROM 4-5 FT
UP TO 17- 24 FT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS THIS
MORNING REMAIN SPLIT BETWEEN LIGHT BREEZES AND MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES AS WELL AS SPREAD IN COVERAGE. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN CLARENCE STRAIT LATE TONIGHT AS WELL AS AROUND POINT COUVERDEN.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD UP TO 4-7 FR FOR MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS BUT COULD BE
HIGHER NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-641-642-644-661>664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-032-033-035-053-643-
672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...SF
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