867
FXAK67 PAJK 301853
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1053 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2026
UPDATE
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
AND OBSERVATIONS FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS, ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH, ENHANCED BY
STRONG LAPSE RATES FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE NE GULF COAST.
AT THIS TIME, THERE IS AROUND A 20% CHANCE THAT ANY GIVEN AREA IN
ICY STRAIT OR JUNEAU WILL EXCEED 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM NOW
UNTIL 4 AM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH SKIES
CLEARING IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
- A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST SUNDAY
MORNING, PRECEDING A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
- SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM
SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING AS A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ARE
RUNNING WARMER THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL REMAINING POSSIBLE FOR THE
AREA. THE AREAS FOR THE BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD SLOW
SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY THANKS INCREASED SOLAR RADIATION. THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN 2-4",
ESPECIALLY IF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TAKES PLACE.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK/
TUESDAY A GALE FORCE LOW NEAR 985MB WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA, MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH NEAR-GALE,
TO GALE FORCE, ESE WINDS IMPACTING OUR COAST FROM DIXON ENTRANCE
NORTH TOWARD THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS. MARINERS OPERATING IN THE
DIRECT LEE OF CHICHAGOF/BARANOF WILL BE SHELTERED FROM WINDS A
BIT, LIKELY ONLY SEEING STRONG BREEZES, WITH THE MORE EXPOSED
WESTERN COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES SEEING THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE ON THEIR WAY UP, WITH SOUTHERLY FRESH SEAS 12 TO 15 FT
MOVING INTO THE COAST, WITH 20 FT SE FRESH SEAS FURTHER OFFSHORE.
MARINERS OPERATING IN SITKA SOUND SHOULD WATCH THE MARINE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE LOW’S PATH
COULD DIRECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTHERLY SEAS INTO THE COAST. FOR
FOLKS IN CLARENCE STRAIT TO SOUTHERN CHATHAM, ANTICIPATE SE WINDS
OF NEAR-GALES TO GALE FORCE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS OF
8 TO 10 FT SOUTH OF GRAVINA ISLAND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, AND SNOW/RAIN IN
THE CENTRAL/SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE TRENDING DOWN.
EXPECT DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARMER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE RAIN, RATHER THAN
SNOW.
AVIATION.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PERIOD FROM THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR ON SOUTH WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VIS AND CIGS POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER/STEADIER SNOW.
FOR PAYA, SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE OCCASIONALLY BROUGHT
VIS/CIGS DOWN TO IFR. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS PUSH OFF TO THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR PAHN AND PAGY EVEN THOUGH CIGS MAY LOWER
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. LIGHTER WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, THOUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
SOUTHERN TAF SITES. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS OFFSHORE, NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS
CONCERNS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LLWS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TAF SITES WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE IN AN UPWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL AS BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AS OUR SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE. THIS
LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL "STALL" OFF THE COAST OF PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND BEFORE THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTHEAST EXITING THE
REGION AND FRONT DISSIPATES TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
FRESH BREEZES UP TO GALES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE
OUTER COAST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD FROM 4-5 FT
UP TO 17- 24 FT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS THIS
MORNING REMAIN SPLIT BETWEEN LIGHT BREEZES AND MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES AS WELL AS SPREAD IN COVERAGE. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN CLARENCE STRAIT LATE TONIGHT AS WELL AS AROUND POINT COUVERDEN.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD UP TO 4-7 FR FOR MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS BUT COULD BE
HIGHER NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ320>322-
325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-641-642-644-661>664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-032-033-035-053-643-
672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...SF
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