475
FXAK67 PAJK 310005
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 PM AKDT MON MAR 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
5 INCHES.
- THE GALE FORCE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED MORE SOUTH, FURTHER
DIMINISHING ITS IMPACT ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE.
- WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A BREAK DAY, WITH MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR: HIGHS OF LOWER 40S TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
SLIGHT CHANGE IN OVERALL MESSAGE, PRIMARILY FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE, THE ADDITIONAL ROUND OF MOISTURE HEADED FOR
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR IS AROUND STEPHENS PASSAGE AND NORTHERN
CHATHAM STRAIT AND HEADING NORTHWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH THE CAA AND VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NEAR
THE NE GULF COAST. AT THIS TIME, STICKING WITH THE 2 TO 5 INCHES
FOR THE JUNEAU TO PELICAN STRETCH OF LAND, WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE LOW PROBABILITIES (<30%) OF GREATER THAN 5
INCHES, WITH A 10% CHANCE TO EXCEED 8 INCHES. ULTIMATELY, NOT
EXPECTING THESE SCENARIOS DUE TO THE DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, SEEING A GENERAL TRANSITION TO VERY COLD RAIN WITH
SLEET (GRAUPEL) MIXED IN.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS THE GALE FORCE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF DOWN TO AROUND HAIDA GWAII. RUN TO RUN
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH THIS LOW AND SEQUENTIAL FRONT MORE
SOUTH, AND THIS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NO EXCEPTION. AT THIS
TIME, AREAS ON THE SW PORTION OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND IS NO
LONGER EXPECTING TO RECEIVE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH.
LONG TERM
WHILE SNOW WAS THE MAIN FOCUS TUESDAY, CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE
THEME FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 1ST (WHICH, AT THIS TIME, IS NOT SOME
SICK APRIL FOOLS JOKE). NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT IN LYNN CANAL, CHATHAM, AND STEPHENS; HOWEVER,
PRESSURE GRADIENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WINDS OF MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZES, WITH LOCAL AREAS LIKE POINT COUVERDEN AND TAKU
INLET SEEING STRONG BREEZES TO PERHAPS NEAR-GALES. THURSDAY
ANOTHER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GULF, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. EXPECTING SNOW TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO REGION;
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING IN WARMER AIR, INCREASING SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 1000 FT FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. SO, EXPECT SNOW LATE THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOLKS FISHING THE COAST, ESPECIALLY SMALLER RECREATIONAL VESSELS
IN SITKA SOUND, SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT FOR THURSDAY'S LOW. A
DYNAMIC FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BRING IN
ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY SEAS INTO THE SOUND BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION.../THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM A WARM FRONT
AND FOLLOW UP SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED IN THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION PRECIP
TO RAIN FROM KLAWOCK AND KETCHIKAN NORTHWARD TO SITKA AND
PETERSBURG AS OF THE 0Z TAF ISSUANCE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
FURTHEST NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TRANSITION, THOUGH LOWER CIGS
HAVE PREVENTED IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO SOME MINOR LLWS, PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHERN POW TUESDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE PANHANDLE NORTH OF ICY STRAIT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST, THOUGH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOR PAYA, SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE, BUT CANNOT RULE THEM OUT ENTIRELY FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY THE EVENING OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD TAKE OVER
AND KEEP PAYA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST RELATIVELY CLEAR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY, THOUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. OVERALL SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS ON AN
UPWARD TREND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW OFFSHORE MAKES A U
TURN SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: BIGGEST CHANGE IN MESSAGE IS THE SHIFT OF GALE
FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND FURTHER SOUTH,
WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 35-40 KNOTS. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15-25 FT FROM CAPE
SPENCER DOWN TO DIXON ENTRANCE, DUE TO THE LONG FETCH, LONGER
DURATION, AND HIGHER WIND MAGNITUDE OF THE AREA OF GALE FORCE
WINDS. AS THE LOW DIVES SOUTH, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASINGLY SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
INSIDE WATERS: WITH THE SHIFT OF THE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
INCREASING SOUTH, THIS WILL DECREASE THE INFLUENCE OF HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS ON THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNEL WATERS. CLARENCE STRAIT,
SUMNER STRAIT, FREDERICK SOUND, AND SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT ARE
NOT LONGER EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KNOTS, GENERALLY RANGING FROM
10-20 KNOTS. AFTERWHICH, ON TUESDAY NIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO
20 KNOTS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ320>322-
325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-642-661>664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-033-036-643-644-651-
652-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...NC
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