441
FXAK67 PAJK 310634 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1034 PM AKDT MON MAR 30 2026
MONDAY EVENING AND AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
MINOR CHANGES TO ONGOING SNOWFALL FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE,
SLIGHTLY INCREASED QPF AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR S DOUGLAS
AND THANE. TAKING A LOOK A SATELLITE AROUND THE AREA, SOME HEAVIER
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS THE S PANHANDLE,
PREDOMINATELY FALLING AS RAIN. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH, SNOWFALL
RATE PRODUCTS INDICATE A BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
ADMIRALTY ISLAND WITH ISOLATED SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1/2 INCH
PER HOUR. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS THE
JUNEAU AREA, WITH HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED NEAR THANE AND
S DOUGLAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES EXPECTED BEFORE SNOWFALL TRAILS OFF THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MODERATED DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR
THE N PANHANDLE, MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE S PANHANDLE.
UPDATED LONG TERM
WE ARE MOVING INTO APRIL SHOWERS AS THE WEEK COMES TO A CLOSE.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF, BRINGING SWATHS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. WHILE THERE IS
80% CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE STRNGTH OF THIS LOW, IMPACTING THE TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. FOR
AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIX
AND QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO RAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE RAIN. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MOST
IMPACTFUL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHER WINDS
CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND OVERALL OUTER WATERS.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
SPLIT REGIME ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH IFR/LIFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ONGOING ALONG THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, INCLUDING JUNEAU. FURTHER SOUTH, LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SITKA TO
PETERSBURG WITH CIGS 2000FT TO 5000FT. MOVING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, THE WORST FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD TO HAINES/SKAGWAY AS BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VISBYS TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE N
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE PRECIP GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES AFTER 12Z, WITH HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY 21Z TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AROUND 10KTS OR LESS,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 20KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT SKAGWAY. NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER KLAWOCK COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SE-LY LLWS
NEAR 30KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS FRONT PUSHES JUST OFFSHORE.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 405 PM AKDT MON MAR 30 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
5 INCHES.
- THE GALE FORCE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED MORE SOUTH, FURTHER
DIMINISHING ITS IMPACT ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE.
- WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A BREAK DAY, WITH MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR: HIGHS OF LOWER 40S TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM...SLIGHT CHANGE IN OVERALL MESSAGE, PRIMARILY FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE, THE ADDITIONAL ROUND OF MOISTURE HEADED FOR
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR IS AROUND STEPHENS PASSAGE AND NORTHERN
CHATHAM STRAIT AND HEADING NORTHWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH THE CAA AND VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NEAR
THE NE GULF COAST. AT THIS TIME, STICKING WITH THE 2 TO 5 INCHES
FOR THE JUNEAU TO PELICAN STRETCH OF LAND, WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE LOW PROBABILITIES (<30%) OF GREATER THAN 5
INCHES, WITH A 10% CHANCE TO EXCEED 8 INCHES. ULTIMATELY, NOT
EXPECTING THESE SCENARIOS DUE TO THE DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, SEEING A GENERAL TRANSITION TO VERY COLD RAIN WITH
SLEET (GRAUPEL) MIXED IN.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS THE GALE FORCE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF DOWN TO AROUND HAIDA GWAII. RUN TO RUN
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH THIS LOW AND SEQUENTIAL FRONT MORE
SOUTH, AND THIS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NO EXCEPTION. AT THIS
TIME, AREAS ON THE SW PORTION OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND IS NO
LONGER EXPECTING TO RECEIVE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH.
LONG TERM...
WHILE SNOW WAS THE MAIN FOCUS TUESDAY, CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE
THEME FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 1ST (WHICH, AT THIS TIME, IS NOT SOME
SICK APRIL FOOLS JOKE). NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT IN LYNN CANAL, CHATHAM, AND STEPHENS; HOWEVER,
PRESSURE GRADIENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WINDS OF MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZES, WITH LOCAL AREAS LIKE POINT COUVERDEN AND TAKU
INLET SEEING STRONG BREEZES TO PERHAPS NEAR-GALES. THURSDAY
ANOTHER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GULF, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. EXPECTING SNOW TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO REGION;
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING IN WARMER AIR, INCREASING SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 1000 FT FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. SO, EXPECT SNOW LATE THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOLKS FISHING THE COAST, ESPECIALLY SMALLER RECREATIONAL VESSELS
IN SITKA SOUND, SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT FOR THURSDAY'S LOW. A
DYNAMIC FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BRING IN
ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY SEAS INTO THE SOUND BY THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: BIGGEST CHANGE IN MESSAGE IS THE SHIFT OF GALE
FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND FURTHER SOUTH,
WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 35-40 KNOTS. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15-25 FT FROM CAPE
SPENCER DOWN TO DIXON ENTRANCE, DUE TO THE LONG FETCH, LONGER
DURATION, AND HIGHER WIND MAGNITUDE OF THE AREA OF GALE FORCE
WINDS. AS THE LOW DIVES SOUTH, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASINGLY SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
INSIDE WATERS: WITH THE SHIFT OF THE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
INCREASING SOUTH, THIS WILL DECREASE THE INFLUENCE OF HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS ON THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNEL WATERS. CLARENCE STRAIT,
SUMNER STRAIT, FREDERICK SOUND, AND SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT ARE
NOT LONGER EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KNOTS, GENERALLY RANGING FROM
10-20 KNOTS. AFTER WHICH, ON TUESDAY NIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO
20 KNOTS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ320>322-
325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-642-661>664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-033-036-643-644-651-
652-671-672.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NC
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