814
FXAK67 PAJK 311907
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1107 AM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2026
UPDATE.../TO ADD THE 18Z AVIATION SECTION/
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND
JUNEAU, DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO DECREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING.
- THE GALE FORCE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED MORE SOUTH, FURTHER
DIMINISHING ITS IMPACT ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE.
- WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A BREAK DAY, WITH MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR: HIGHS OF LOWER 40S TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SATELLITE AND CMORPH2 PRECIP ARE SHOWING BAND OF SNOW LIFTING
NORTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND JUNEAU TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, INCLUDING HAINES, SKAGWAY AND
YAKUTAT, ALTHOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE BAND
IS WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES NORTH. AREA WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBS ARE
INDICATING SNOW RATES QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS JUNEAU, HOONAH
AND GUSTAVUS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH, AND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4AM. CLEARING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SNOW ENDS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW MIX ENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT MORE TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS,
NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH, WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE GALE FORCE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF DOWN TO AROUND
HAIDA GWAII CONTINUES PUSH THIS LOW AND SEQUENTIAL FRONT MORE
SOUTH. SOME BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
COAST. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS BECOMING 10 TO 20 MPH FOR HAINES AND
SKAGWAY TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
WHILE SNOW WAS THE MAIN FOCUS TUESDAY, CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE
THEME FOR WEDNESDAY, APRIL 1ST (WHICH, AT THIS TIME, IS NOT SOME
SICK APRIL FOOLS JOKE). NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT IN LYNN CANAL, CHATHAM, AND STEPHENS; HOWEVER,
PRESSURE GRADIENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WINDS OF MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZES, WITH LOCAL AREAS LIKE POINT COUVERDEN AND TAKU
INLET SEEING STRONG BREEZES TO PERHAPS NEAR-GALES. THURSDAY
ANOTHER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GULF, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. EXPECTING SNOW TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO REGION;
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING IN WARMER AIR, INCREASING SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 1000 FT FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. SO, EXPECT SNOW LATE THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY.
WE ARE MOVING INTO APRIL SHOWERS AS THE WEEK COMES TO A CLOSE.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF, BRINGING SWATHS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. WHILE THERE IS
80% CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, IMPACTING THE TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. FOR
AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIX
AND QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO RAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE RAIN. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MOST
IMPACTFUL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHER WINDS
CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND OVERALL OUTER WATERS.
FOLKS FISHING THE COAST, ESPECIALLY SMALLER RECREATIONAL VESSELS
IN SITKA SOUND, SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT FOR THURSDAY'S LOW. A
DYNAMIC FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BRING IN
ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY SEAS INTO THE SOUND BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY/
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS & SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE, WHICH
MAY REDUCE CIG & VIS CONDITIONS MAINLY DOWN TO AROUND THE MVFR
CATEGORY, WHICH WILL TAPER-OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON, IMPROVING THAT
AREA TO VFR, AS WELL. SFC WINDS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE GUSTY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAKW & PASI. FOR PAGY & PAHN, SFC WINDS LOOK
TO REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AROUND PAKW,
LLWS CENTERED ALOFT AT AROUND 2 KFT WITH MAGNITUDES OF AROUND 30
KT OUT OF ABOUT 140 DEG ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SFC
WINDS & LLWS VALUES REMAIN BENIGN ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BUILDING INTO MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OUT IN THE
CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS HAINES
GWAII. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOWS PUSHES AWAY TOWARDS
SOUTHERN BC. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 15-22 FT FROM CAPE SPENCER DOWN TO DIXON ENTRANCE,
DUE TO THE LONG FETCH, LONGER DURATION, AND HIGHER WIND MAGNITUDE
OF THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME RELATIVELY BENIGN ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN AS ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT SWING THROUGH THE GULF
LATE IN THE WEEK.
INSIDE WATERS: MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS
TODAY AS NORTHERLY/EASTERLY OUTFLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTH,
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AS THE GALE FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF APPROACHES. AS
THE LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN BC TONIGHT, WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY MODERATE TO FRESH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH
THE LOW PUSHING FURTHER AWAY. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AND FRONT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-661>664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-033-036-053-642>644-651-
652-671-672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...DS
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