035
FXAK67 PAJK 010005
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 PM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE FORCE SYSTEM IN THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF WILL EXIT THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, LEADING TO GENERALLY DIMINISHING WIND
AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGION.
- WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A BREAK DAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT PUSHED INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
MORNING HAS SPENT ITSELF AND SKIES HAVE QUICKLY BEGUN TO CLEAR
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. AS THE GALE FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO
RETREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS THE BOARD WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING RIDGE
WILL BRING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND HELP TO
FURTHER DRY OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUDS LATER WEDNESDAY, WHILE ALSO
HELPING TO LIMIT ANY SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES THAT COULD DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 40S FOR
MOST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, SOME FOG POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
HEADING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SNOWMELT DURING THE
DAY AND THE SUBSEQUENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE AND SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED DUE TO LACK OF ONSHORE FLOW OR FURTHER
MOISTURE REINFORCEMENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS A RESULT, ANY FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED TO COMMUNITIES AND NOT
NECESSARILY SPREAD INTO MARINE AREAS EXCESSIVELY.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOUTH TO THE MID TO LOW 20S UP
NORTH. OVERALL A FRESH TASTE OF MILD SPRING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, DESPITE THE SNOWPACK STILL PREVALENT AT OR NEAR SEA LEVEL
FOR MANY COMMUNITIES. FOR MORE ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GULF LATER IN THE WEEK, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BRING MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHEAST SPRINGTIME WEATHER WITH A SUB-GALE FORCE LOW AND FRONT
TO QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS LOW, ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NOW THE MAIN QUESTION IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE: RAIN OR SNOW? THE SOURCE OF THIS LOW IS THE MORE TYPICAL
ALEUTIAN STORM TRACK, WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT THAN WHAT WE HAVE
PREVIOUSLY SEEN THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH OUR STORM CYCLES. WHILE
THIS WARM AIR CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE, THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE KEEP PROTECTED INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COOLER AT
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, WE HAVE SPRING SUNSHINE AND LONGER DAYS TO
HELP WITH WARMING. CONSIDERING THIS, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
QUICK HIT OF WET/HEAVY SNOW FOR THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
TRANSITION TO RAIN FRIDAY, WITH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TRANSITIONING LATER FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO ABOVE 1000 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.
ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THAT WHILE THURSDAY’S LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF, MARINERS OPERATING
ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED
SEAS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY/
EVERYWHERE THAT WINDS DO NOT GO
CALM OR NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AREAS THAT GO CALM SUCH AS PAYA, PAJN, & PAGS MAY SEE SOME
FOGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, DIPPING VISS TO THE LOW-END MVFR OR
POTENTIALLY THE HIGH-END IFR CATEGORY. ONCE THE SUB RISES TOMORROW &
WE GET SFC WARMING & TURBULENT MIXING STARTED, THE FOG SHOULD THIN
OUT BEFORE MID-MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY FOR THE PAGY
& PAHN AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE BENIGN WITH DAYTIME SEABREEZES FOR SOME AREAS. AROUND PAKW, LLWS
CENTERED ALOFT AT AROUND 2 KFT WITH MAGNITUDES OF AROUND 30 KT OUT
OF ABOUT 140 DEG ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD
AS THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF CONTINUES WEAKENING AND MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL RANGING FROM 12-15 FT FROM CAPE SPENCER
DOWN TO DIXON ENTRANCE AS OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION. WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME RELATIVELY BENIGN ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT SWING
THROUGH THE GULF LATE IN THE WEEK.
INSIDE WATERS: MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS TODAY AS
NORTHERLY/EASTERLY OUTFLOW STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY WITH THE CLOSEST
APPROACH OF THE LOW. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND
EVENTUALLY SWITCH NORTHERLY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII AND THE BC COAST. THE GALE FORCE LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF APPROACHES. MILD OUTFLOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS WITH THE LOW PUSHING FURTHER AWAY. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AND FRONT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-661>664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-036-053-642>644-651-
652-671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...STJ
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