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FXAK67 PAJK 010655 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1055 PM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2026
EVENING, AVIATION, AND LONG TERM UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THE GALE
FORCE LOW DEPARTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE N PAC. WITH CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA AND OVERLAND WINDS DIMINISHING, NUDGED DOWN
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO MATCH ONGOING OBS AND ADDED
PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE N PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
FOR THE LONG TERM UPDATE, THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH A CONTINUOUS WARMING LOWER-LEVEL WARMING
TREND FAVORING MOSTLY, IF NOT ALL, RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LESS THAN AN INCH, DUE TO WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING AND SEASONALLY AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS ARE ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY IN THE SOUTHERN REGION, BRINGING
MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AVIATION
/UNTIL 06Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AS OFF
SHORE FLOW TAKES HOLD. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOP
ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR TAF SITES, INCLUDING JUNEAU, WITH
CALM WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND SMALL T/TD DEPRESSION. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE ANY FREEZING FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
POTENTIALLY FROSTING OUT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED FOG DEVELOPMENT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERLAND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LARGELY 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, INCREASING TO
10 TO 15KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE MORE, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25KTS POSSIBLE FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 405 PM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE FORCE SYSTEM IN THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF WILL EXIT THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, LEADING TO GENERALLY DIMINISHING WIND
AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGION.
- WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A BREAK DAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM...
THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT PUSHED INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
MORNING HAS SPENT ITSELF AND SKIES HAVE QUICKLY BEGUN TO CLEAR
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. AS THE GALE FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO
RETREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS THE BOARD WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING RIDGE
WILL BRING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND HELP TO
FURTHER DRY OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUDS LATER WEDNESDAY, WHILE ALSO
HELPING TO LIMIT ANY SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES THAT COULD DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 40S FOR
MOST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, SOME FOG POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
HEADING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SNOWMELT DURING THE
DAY AND THE SUBSEQUENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE AND SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED DUE TO LACK OF ONSHORE FLOW OR FURTHER
MOISTURE REINFORCEMENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS A RESULT, ANY FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED TO COMMUNITIES AND NOT
NECESSARILY SPREAD INTO MARINE AREAS EXCESSIVELY.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOUTH TO THE MID TO LOW 20S UP
NORTH. OVERALL A FRESH TASTE OF MILD SPRING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, DESPITE THE SNOWPACK STILL PREVALENT AT OR NEAR SEA LEVEL
FOR MANY COMMUNITIES. FOR MORE ON THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GULF LATER IN THE WEEK, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING MORE TYPICAL SOUTHEAST SPRINGTIME WEATHER
WITH A SUB- GALE FORCE LOW AND FRONT TO QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW,
ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. NOW THE MAIN QUESTION IS PRECIPITATION TYPE: RAIN OR
SNOW? THE SOURCE OF THIS LOW IS THE MORE TYPICAL ALEUTIAN STORM
TRACK, WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT THAN WHAT WE HAVE PREVIOUSLY SEEN THE
LAST FEW WEEKS WITH OUR STORM CYCLES. WHILE THIS WARM AIR
CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE, THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE KEEP
PROTECTED INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COOLER AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE SPRING SUNSHINE AND LONGER DAYS TO HELP WITH
WARMING. CONSIDERING THIS, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A QUICK HIT OF
WET/HEAVY SNOW FOR THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND A TRANSITION TO
RAIN FRIDAY, WITH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TRANSITIONING LATER
FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO ABOVE 1000 FT
FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.
ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THAT WHILE THURSDAY’S LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF, MARINERS OPERATING
ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED
SEAS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD
AS THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF CONTINUES WEAKENING AND MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL RANGING FROM 12-15 FT FROM CAPE SPENCER
DOWN TO DIXON ENTRANCE AS OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION. WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME RELATIVELY BENIGN ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT SWING
THROUGH THE GULF LATE IN THE WEEK.
INSIDE WATERS: MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS TODAY AS
NORTHERLY/EASTERLY OUTFLOW STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY WITH THE CLOSEST
APPROACH OF THE LOW. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND
EVENTUALLY SWITCH NORTHERLY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII AND THE BC COAST. THE GALE FORCE LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF APPROACHES. MILD OUTFLOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS WITH THE LOW PUSHING FURTHER AWAY. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AND FRONT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AP/BAS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ
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