400
FXAK67 PAJK 011246
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
446 AM AKDT WED APR 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE FORCE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY TOWARDS SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA, LEADING TO GENERALLY DIMINISHING WIND AND
SEAS ACROSS THE REGION.
- WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A BREAK DAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE
GALE FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. WITH THE CLEARING, TEMPS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS WELL IN LOW-LYING
AREAS. HOWEVER, ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DENSE AND SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED DUE TO LACK OF ONSHORE
FLOW OR FURTHER MOISTURE REINFORCEMENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS A
RESULT, ANY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED TO COMMUNITIES
AND NOT NECESSARILY SPREAD INTO MARINE AREAS EXCESSIVELY. ANOTHER
WARMER, MORE SEASONABLE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S, WITH LOW
50S POSSIBLE FOR KETCHIKAN AND COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHTER WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S
WITH MORE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BRING MORE
TYPICAL SOUTHEAST SPRINGTIME WEATHER WITH A SUB- GALE FORCE LOW
AND FRONT TO QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH
THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW, ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NOW THE MAIN
QUESTION IS PRECIPITATION TYPE: RAIN OR SNOW? THE SOURCE OF THIS
LOW IS THE MORE TYPICAL ALEUTIAN STORM TRACK, WITH WARMER AIR
ALOFT THAN WHAT WE HAVE PREVIOUSLY SEEN THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH
OUR STORM CYCLES. WHILE THIS WARM AIR CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THAT RAIN
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE, THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW
WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE KEEP PROTECTED INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST COOLER AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, WE HAVE SPRING
SUNSHINE AND LONGER DAYS TO HELP WITH WARMING. CONSIDERING THIS,
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A QUICK HIT OF WET/HEAVY SNOW FOR THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND A TRANSITION TO RAIN FRIDAY, WITH THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE TRANSITIONING LATER FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO ABOVE 1000 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.
ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THAT WHILE THURSDAY’S LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF, MARINERS OPERATING
ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED
SEAS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE LONG TERM UPDATE, THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH A CONTINUOUS LOWER-LEVEL WARMING TREND
FAVORING MOSTLY, IF NOT ALL, RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF LESS THAN AN INCH, DUE TO WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
AND SEASONALLY AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS ARE ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY IN THE SOUTHERN REGION, BRINGING
MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH A MAJORITY OF SITES SEEING CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS. HAINES AND WRANGELL ARE THE EXCEPTIONS FOR WIND,
WITH WRANGELL SEEING UP TO 10 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
HAINES SEEING NORTHWESTERLY OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. THE OTHER EXCEPTIONS ARE JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS,
BOTH SEEING A VERY PATCHY, SHALLOW FOG LAYER PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY STAYING VFR, WITH THE OCCASIONAL
DROP IN VIS FROM THIS FOG LAYER BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE THICK. WITH
HOW THIS FOG HAS TRENDED OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR WITH THE FOG LAYER STAYING TOO SHALLOW TO BRING VIS
DOWN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AND BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY FORCING THE LAYER TO FROST OUT THROUGH
THE MORNING.
OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LARGELY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
MOST SITES. HAINES AND SKAGWAY MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AND LLWS AT 1000 FT IS EXPECTED DOWN
GASTINEAU CHANNEL IN JUNEAU DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM TAKU INLET. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AGAIN. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE GALE FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION TOWARDS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA, WITH WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUING THEIR DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 9 TO
13 FT THIS MORNING WILL DROP DOWN TO 4 TO 7 FT TONIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY 10 TO 20 KT TODAY, THEN DIPPING DOWN TO 5
TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT SWING THROUGH THE GULF
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY
GALES AND SEAS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 FT
INSIDE WATERS: MODERATE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS THIS MORNING, WITH STRONG NORTHERLIES IN LYNN CANAL.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH
THE LOW PUSHING FURTHER AWAY. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH
BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS BY LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AND FRONT, WITH GALES POSSIBLE FOR
CLARENCE STRAIT. WEAKER OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHANNELS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...DS
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