577
FXAK67 PAJK 011814
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1014 AM AKDT WED APR 1 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATE FOLLOWING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE FORCE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY TOWARDS SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA, LEADING TO GENERALLY DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS ACROSS
THE REGION.
- WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A BREAK DAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE
GALE FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
WITH THE CLEARING, TEMPS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS WELL IN LOW-LYING AREAS. HOWEVER, ANY FOG
THAT DOES DEVELOP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE AND SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED DUE TO LACK OF ONSHORE FLOW OR FURTHER
MOISTURE REINFORCEMENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS A RESULT, ANY FOG IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED TO COMMUNITIES AND NOT NECESSARILY
SPREAD INTO MARINE AREAS EXCESSIVELY. ANOTHER WARMER, MORE
SEASONABLE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S, WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE
FOR KETCHIKAN AND COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH MORE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BRING MORE
TYPICAL SOUTHEAST SPRINGTIME WEATHER WITH A SUB- GALE FORCE LOW AND
FRONT TO QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW, ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NOW THE MAIN QUESTION IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE: RAIN OR SNOW? THE SOURCE OF THIS LOW IS THE MORE TYPICAL
ALEUTIAN STORM TRACK, WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT THAN WHAT WE HAVE
PREVIOUSLY SEEN THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH OUR STORM CYCLES. WHILE THIS
WARM AIR CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE, THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
KEEP PROTECTED INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COOLER AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE SPRING SUNSHINE AND LONGER DAYS TO HELP WITH
WARMING. CONSIDERING THIS, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A QUICK HIT OF
WET/HEAVY SNOW FOR THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND A TRANSITION TO
RAIN FRIDAY, WITH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TRANSITIONING LATER FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO ABOVE 1000 FT FOR MUCH
OF THE PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 40S.
ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THAT WHILE THURSDAY’S LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW
GALE FORCE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF, MARINERS OPERATING ALONG
THE COAST SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED SEAS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE LONG TERM UPDATE, THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH A CONTINUOUS LOWER-LEVEL WARMING TREND
FAVORING MOSTLY, IF NOT ALL, RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF LESS THAN AN INCH, DUE TO WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND
SEASONALLY AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS ARE ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY IN THE SOUTHERN REGION, BRINGING MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE
LOW MOVING SOUTH ALLOWING FOR OFFSHORE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.
LARGELY CALM WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING 10 TO 15 KT SUSTAINED
WINDS THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HAINES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZES TODAY AS THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH THE CLEAR SKIES.
PREDOMINANTLY CALM CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KT AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME AREAS THAT SAW
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, INCLUDING JUNEAU AND
GUSTAVUS, SAW THE FOG DISSIPATE EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH THE
SUNRISE. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL STILL FOR MORE PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND ANY PATCHY
FOG WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
SOME CROSS BARRIER FLOW REMAINS ACROSS GASTINEAU CHANNEL AND OUT
OF TAKU INLET THIS MORNING, HOWEVER IT WILL STAY AROUND 25 TO 30
KT AND WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE DAY. LLWS CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPCOMING SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
SURFACE WINDS ONLY BEGINNING TO SWITCH DIRECTIONS INTO THE VERY
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW APPROACHES IN THE GULF.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE GALE FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TOWARDS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA, WITH WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUING THEIR DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 9 TO
13 FT THIS MORNING WILL DROP DOWN TO 4 TO 7 FT TONIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY 10 TO 20 KT TODAY, THEN DIPPING DOWN TO 5 TO
15 KT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT SWING THROUGH THE GULF FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALES
AND SEAS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 FT
INSIDE WATERS: MODERATE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS THIS MORNING, WITH STRONG NORTHERLIES IN LYNN CANAL.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE
LOW PUSHING FURTHER AWAY. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BECOMING
FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS BY LATER
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
LOW AND FRONT, WITH GALES POSSIBLE FOR CLARENCE STRAIT. WEAKER
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHANNELS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...DS
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