382
FXAK67 PAJK 020603 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1003 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2026
EVENING AND AVIATION UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD
FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT,
OPTING FOR THE PERSISTENCE BASED FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES LARGELY FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING. CURRENT THINKING IS LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE, INTO THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S FOR S PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES. TOWARDS TOMORROW, DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, HOWEVER INCOMING
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE S PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS, OUTSIDE OF
DRAINAGE WINDS NEAR HAINES WHICH COULD PROMPT AN ISOLATED GUST UP
TO 20KTS. BEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM YAKUTAT TO GUSTAVUS TO JUNEAU, HOWEVER ANTICIPATING
CONDITIONS FOR N PANHANDLE TO DIMINISH JUST AFTER THE TAF PERIOD
ENDS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS AN INCOMING FRONT FROM S PANHANDLE
PUSHES INLAND. AS MENTIONED, FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z, THE AFOREMENTIONED INCOMING
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE S PANHANDLE TAF SITES, WITH WINDS
INCREASING AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING DOWN TO MVFR OR
WORSE THROUGH 06Z, NEAR THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. WITH THIS FRONT,
SE- LY LLWS PRIMARILY CONTAINED TO THE S PANHANDLE TAF SITES,
AROUND 40KTS OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR KLAWOCK WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SPEED SHEAR FOR KETCHIKAN, BOTH NEAR 06Z.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 403 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND THE
EASTERN GULF AS A RIDE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATER THURSDAY BRINGING
INCREASED WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE PANHANDLE TO END THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM...SEASONABLE SPRING WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND BRIEFLY
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF INTO THE AREA. ANY LINGERING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT, ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING ONCE MORE. THIS MEANS MANY AREAS WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE TO DEAL WITH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS WITH SNOW
MELTING DURING THE DAY AND THEN ICE FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT DAYTIME HEATING
FOR THE MOST PART, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
A LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF LATER THURSDAY WILL PUSH A FRONT AND
POTENTIALLY AN EMBEDDED LOW TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING
INCREASED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -5
DEGREES OR MORE, THE PANHANDLE SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND SHOULD SEE
ALL RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM AT SEA LEVEL, WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
MARCHING NORTHWARD TOWARDS ICY STRAIT BY EARLY FRIDAY. FOR MORE ON
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THIS SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK, SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM.../ FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY / A BAND WORKS ITS WAY
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SPREADING THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. HAVE KEPT PRECIP TYPE AS MIXED.
FREEZING LEVEL AND LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE A QUESTIONABLE
LEVEL OF WHETHER IT WANTED TO BE RAIN OR SNOW. THINK THAT A THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NORTH MAY BE MORE OF A NON ACCUMULATING OR
VERY LOW ACCUMULATION WET SNOW. FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE WARMING SATURDAY, TRIES TO SWITCH TO MORE OF THAT AREA TO
A RAIN STATE... THROUGH THINK THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF COULD STAY
MIXED EVEN SATURDAY.
A SECOND WAVE ON THE MOISTURE PLUME SEEMS TO BE FAVORING A GOOD A
SPRING RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO PERHAPS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. DON'T THINK THERE SHOULD BE ANY CONCERNS FOR
HAZARDS MID RANG E
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUS GALE FORCE LOW SLIDES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SEAS WILL DROP DOWN TO 4
TO 7 FT TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND DIP DOWN TO 5
TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATER IN
THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, RAISING WINDS TO STRONG TO
POSSIBLY GALES OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN EAST AND SEAS INCREASING
TO 9 TO 12 FT.
INSIDE WATERS: MODERATE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL RAMP DOWN THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW PUSHING FURTHER AWAY.
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS BY LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AND FRONT, WITH
GALES POSSIBLE FOR CLARENCE STRAIT. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PICK
UP AGAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-661-662.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ
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