667
FXAK67 PAJK 021239
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
439 AM AKDT THU APR 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLEAR AND CHILLY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY, BRINGING
INCREASED WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE PANHANDLE TO END THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AGAIN HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S AS MOSTLY OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA CONTINUES TO SEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING AS OPPOSED TO
YESTERDAY, SO SEEING LESS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER SEASONABLE SPRING DAY ON TAP WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF SE AK, WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE NEXT LOW AND FRONT PUSH INTO THE
GULF. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT, BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. WITH MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MILDER SURFACE TO 850 TEMPS, THE COASTAL
COMMANDOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN.
INLAND POW ISLAND AND COASTAL COMMUNIZES ACROSS CENTRAL PANHANDLE
COULD START OFF WITH SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE WEAK OUTFLOW CONDITIONS IN PLACE, MAY SEE
ALL SNOW INITIALLY, BUT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PULL NORTH, A
TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN IS POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH, IF ANY, THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A BAND WORKS ITS WAY
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SPREADING THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. HAVE KEPT PRECIP TYPE AS MIXED.
FREEZING LEVEL AND LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE A QUESTIONABLE
LEVEL OF WHETHER IT WANTED TO BE RAIN OR SNOW. THINK THAT A THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NORTH MAY BE MORE OF A NON ACCUMULATING OR
VERY LOW ACCUMULATION WET SNOW. FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE WARMING SATURDAY, TRIES TO SWITCH TO MORE OF THAT AREA TO A
RAIN STATE... THROUGH THINK THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF COULD STAY
MIXED EVEN SATURDAY.
A SECOND WAVE ON THE MOISTURE PLUME SEEMS TO BE FAVORING A GOOD A
SPRING RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO PERHAPS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. DON'T THINK THERE SHOULD BE ANY CONCERNS FOR
HAZARDS MID RANGE
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
A MAJORITY OF SITES ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING CALM WINDS, WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING HAINES STILL FEELING 10 TO 15 KT DRAINAGE
WINDS WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 20 KTS. THESE CLEAR, QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A STRONG FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
BROKEN CEILINGS AOA 20,000 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PROCEED THE FRONT,
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER AND THE THIN
LAYER OF HIGH CIGS CONTINUE NORTH, THIS CLOUD DECK WILL STEADILY
DECREASE IN HEIGHT TO AROUND 7000 FT WHILE BECOMING MORE DENSE
UNTIL EVENTUALLY IT SITS AROUND 2500 TO 5000 FT RIGHT BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES IN.
THE FRONT IS FIRST EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AROUND 1 TO 3Z, BEFORE MOVING NORTH TO JUST BELOW THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AROUND 3 TO 6Z. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH 6 TO 12Z, MAKING IT TO AROUND
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AROUND 12 TO 18Z. AFTER 18Z, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, THOUGH IT MAY TAKE LONGER TO REACH
SKAGWAY AND ESPECIALLY YAKUTAT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS WET SNOW OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING UP ENOUGH TO TRANSITION FULLY TO RAIN FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS MAY HOLD OUT AS THE FRONT INITIALLY
MOVES IN, BUT CIGS ARE QUICKLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY EVEN IFR FOR THE SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE DURING THE PEAK. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
FOLLOW THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH MOST OF THE PANHANDLE,
WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHEASTERLY LLWS IS EXPECTED WITH THE PEAK AROUND
6Z, PRIMARILY CONTAINED TO THE S PANHANDLE TAF SITES, WITH AROUND
40KTS OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR KLAWOCK WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SPEED SHEAR FOR KETCHIKAN. CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BACK TO HIGH-END MVFR TO LOW-
END VFR IN KETCHIKAN AND KLAWOCK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE
STRONGEST PARTS OF THE FRONT CONTINUE NORTH.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY, RAISING WINDS TO STRONG TO
POSSIBLY GALES AND SEAS INCREASING TO 9 TO 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, BUT WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD
TREND BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY LATER SUNDAY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER LOW PUSHES NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
INSIDE WATERS: AS THE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH, FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS THIS EVENING, WITH GALES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE/OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS WELL TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, BECOMING
MODERATE TO FRESH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW, TURN TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-641-642-644-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...DS
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