673
FXAK67 PAJK 021833
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1033 AM AKDT THU APR 2 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOLLOWING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLEAR AND CHILLY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY, BRINGING
INCREASED WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE PANHANDLE TO END THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AGAIN HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S AS MOSTLY OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA CONTINUES TO SEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING AS OPPOSED TO
YESTERDAY, SO SEEING LESS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER SEASONABLE SPRING DAY ON TAP WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF SE AK, WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE NEXT LOW AND FRONT PUSH INTO THE
GULF. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT, BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. WITH MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MILDER SURFACE TO 850 TEMPS, THE COASTAL
COMMANDOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN.
INLAND POW ISLAND AND COASTAL COMMUNIZES ACROSS CENTRAL PANHANDLE
COULD START OFF WITH SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE WEAK OUTFLOW CONDITIONS IN PLACE, MAY SEE
ALL SNOW INITIALLY, BUT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PULL NORTH, A
TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN IS POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH, IF ANY, THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A BAND WORKS ITS WAY
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SPREADING THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. HAVE KEPT PRECIP TYPE AS MIXED.
FREEZING LEVEL AND LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE A QUESTIONABLE
LEVEL OF WHETHER IT WANTED TO BE RAIN OR SNOW. THINK THAT A THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NORTH MAY BE MORE OF A NON ACCUMULATING OR
VERY LOW ACCUMULATION WET SNOW. FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE WARMING SATURDAY, TRIES TO SWITCH TO MORE OF THAT AREA TO A
RAIN STATE... THROUGH THINK THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF COULD STAY
MIXED EVEN SATURDAY.
A SECOND WAVE ON THE MOISTURE PLUME SEEMS TO BE FAVORING A GOOD A
SPRING RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO PERHAPS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. DON'T THINK THERE SHOULD BE ANY CONCERNS FOR
HAZARDS MID RANGE
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AND LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE.
LARGELY CALM WINDS UNDER 10 KT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. SOME
10 TO 15 KT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE STILL, PARTICULARLY HAINES AND SKAGWAY, WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. THIS WILL CHANGE INTO
MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE
LOOKING POSSIBLE, WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME 10 TO 15 KT WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT FROM THIS ONSHORE DIRECTION DUE TO THE SURFACE
HEATING DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
THE UPCOMING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
COASTLINE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, MOVING NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS MOVING OVER THE
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF IT LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT FROM S TO N, BUT WILL REMAIN VFR AND LARGELY
AOB 6000 FT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAY BRING SOME CIGS DOWN TO 2500 TO 3500 FT AND A REDUCTION
TO VIS JUST BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PREDOMINANTLY START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN FULLY, THOUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTLINE IS EXPECTED TO START AS RAIN AND REMAIN RAIN. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
IN THE EVENING INTO TONIGHT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THE FRONT WILL
FOLLOW THESE SHOWERS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z, BRINGING CIGS TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT AND DROPPING VIS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4SM AS
THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGING FLYING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DOWN TO MVFR. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SOME ELEVATED S TO SE WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE IN
PARTICULAR, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 KT UP TO 20 KT, WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 KT AT THE HIGHEST. THE CIG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH
MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS AFTER
THIS PUSHES NORTHWARD AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY,
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO THE MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY FOR THE REST OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE UP INTO
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AREA, EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
11Z AND 15Z FRIDAY AND BEGINNING TO BRING VIS RESTRICTIONS BELOW
6SM AND CIGS TO BELOW 5000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AFTER
15Z AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWING THESE SHOWERS,
BRINGING CIGS DOWN TO 2000 TO 3000 FT BY 18Z. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE INTO THE MORNING FROM THE SE AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD, AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
INTO THE MORNING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LLWS IS THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD, LARGELY FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. WINDS AT
1500 TO 2000 FT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 30 TO 40 KT FROM THE SE LATE
TONIGHT FROM AROUND 05Z TO 10Z, BEFORE SHIFTING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KT AT 1500
FT AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AFTER 10Z. THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO SEE LLWS FROM THE SW AROUND 15Z INTO THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, STILL GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN WIND SPEED
AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL NOT
SEE LLWS UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
TAF PERIOD, BUT ANY LLWS ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE WILL LARGELY BE
LOWER IN WIND SPEEDS THAN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY, RAISING WINDS TO STRONG TO
POSSIBLY GALES AND SEAS INCREASING TO 9 TO 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, BUT WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD
TREND BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY LATER SUNDAY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER LOW PUSHES NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
INSIDE WATERS: AS THE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH, FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS THIS EVENING, WITH GALES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE/OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS WELL TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, BECOMING
MODERATE TO FRESH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW, TURN TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-641-642-644-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...DS
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