931
FXAK67 PAJK 022358
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
358 PM AKDT THU APR 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT
- DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
PANHANDLE TO END THE WEEK WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
PANHANDLE NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY RAIN.
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
AN APPROACHING LOW IS MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN BY
EXTENDING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER IS CAUSING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
BE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY, THOUGH ON THE FLIP SIDE THIS
WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL AS MUCH AHEAD OF THE
IMPENDING FRONT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE PRIMARY
BROAD CIRCULATION REMAINS CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL GULF, A SECONDARY
LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE LEAD IN THE EASTERN GULF AND BE THE
PRIMARY DRIVER OF A FRONT PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
PRIMARILY BRING RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH COMMUNITIES
ALONG SUMNER STRAIT EXPECTED TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN LATER FRIDAY MORNING. FOR
THE OUTER COAST FROM POW NORTHWARD TO SITKA, ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
QUICKLY PUT TO REST ANY IDEAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AT SEA LEVEL,
THOUGH SNOW MIXING IN WITH ANY HEAVIER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. WHEN THE FRONT INITIALLY PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO GALE FORCE AROUND
DIXON ENTRANCE AND SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ANNETTE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG SOUTHERN POW
AND BRIEFLY FOR THE KETCHIKAN AREA AS WELL WITH THE FRONT AS WELL.
FOR THE INNER CHANNELS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND TO ICY STRAIT,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS WET SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY BECOMING A
WET WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HAINES AND
SKAGWAY WHO WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS AT THE SURFACE
STRUGGLE TO PUNCH NORTHWARD. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
PROXIMITY TO THE OUTER COAST COULD CAUSE THIS SOUTHERLY PUSH TO
OCCUR SOONER, WHICH WOULD IN TURN LEAD TO A FASTER TRANSITION TO
COLD RAIN FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND THUS LOWER ANY POTENTIAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF THIS DISCUSSION, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF MAYBE AROUND 1 INCH OF SLUSH. FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEKEND, SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
/ SATURDAY TO TUESDAY / A SHORT RUNS NORTH ALONG THE
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THEN
THEN TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS MAY PLAY HAVOC WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS. AS DIRECTIONS FLIP IN
RELATION TO LOWS AND FRONTS. A THIRD LOW WILL TRAIL THE SECOND TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO SUNDAY. LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RAIN DAY
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THAT REGION, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ISSUES.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVE EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE TUESDAY WHICH HAS DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY,
AND A BREAK INCOMING MIDWEEK THAT MAY CONTINUE TO THURSDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND LAST THROUGH INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE AND HIGHER CLOUD
COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GENERALLY ABOVE
60KFT UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES IN. LARGELY CALM WINDS UNDER 10 KT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH MOST OF THE INCREASED OFFSHORE WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAVING DIMINISHED INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPCOMING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
COASTLINE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, MOVING NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT FROM S TO N, BUT WILL REMAIN VFR AND
LARGELY AOB 6000 FT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 2500 TO 3500 FT AND A
REDUCTION TO VIS JUST BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND PUSHES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PREDOMINANTLY START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN FULLY, THOUGH THE FAR
SOUTHERN COASTLINE IS EXPECTED TO START AS RAIN AND REMAIN RAIN.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
BEGIN PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z, BRINGING CIGS TO BETWEEN
1500 AND 2500 FT AND DROPPING VIS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4SM AS THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA DOWN TO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, PARTICULARLY THE
KETCHIKAN AND POW AREAS, TO SEE SOME LOWER DROPS TO VIS TO 2SM AND
CIGS DOWN TO AOB 1000 FT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED S
TO SE WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE IN PARTICULAR, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT AT THE
HIGHEST. THE CIG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS AFTER THIS PUSHES NORTHWARD, AS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE ONGOING ONSHORE
FLOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO THE MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY FOR THE REST OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE UP INTO
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AREA, BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z FRIDAY,
BEGINNING TO BRING VIS RESTRICTIONS BELOW 6SM AND CIGS TO BELOW
5000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AFTER 15Z AS THE MAIN FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING CIGS DOWN TO 1500 TO 2500 FT BY 18Z.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE MORNING FROM THE SE AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD, AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE MORNING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LLWS IS THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD, LARGELY FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. WINDS AT
1500 TO 2000 FT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 30 TO 40 KT FROM THE SE LATE
TONIGHT FROM AROUND 05Z TO 10Z, BEFORE SHIFTING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KT AT 1500
FT AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AFTER 10Z. THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SW
AROUND 15Z INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, STILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN WIND SPEED AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL NOT SEE LLWS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY, RAISING WINDS TO STRONG TO
POSSIBLY GALES AND SEAS INCREASING TO 9 TO 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, BUT WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD
TREND BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY LATER SUNDAY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
INSIDE WATERS: AS THE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH THURSDAY EVENING,
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS, WITH GALES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE/OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS,
BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW, TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY LATER FRIDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
AKZ332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-641-642-644-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...STJ
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page