274
FXAK67 PAJK 031429
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
629 AM AKDT FRI APR 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
PANHANDLE TO END THE WEEK WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
PANHANDLE NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY RAIN.
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY/
A BROAD LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE DECISION HAS SENT A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
OVER PART OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM SITKA THROUGH KAKE TO
PETERSBURG, BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AND SOUTH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES HAVE SO FAR BEEN
REPORTED ALONG THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE OUTER
COASTAL COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SITKA, KLAWOCK, AND HYDABURG SEEING
OCCASIONAL BREAKS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WHILE A FEW
OBSERVATIONS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE COME IN FOR KAKE WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET, PRECIPITATION FOR OTHER IMPACTED COMMUNITIES HAS
STAYED PRIMARILY RAIN. COMMUNITIES ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE THIS PRECIPITATION START AS WET SNOW OR
A SNOW/RAIN MIX BEFORE MAKING THE TRANSITION OVER TO MOSTLY RAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION REMAINS HAINES AND SKAGWAY,
WHO WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY
AS THE SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS AT THE SURFACE STRUGGLE TO PUNCH
NORTHWARD. A FASTER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY PUSH COULD LEAD TO A
FASTER TRANSITION TO COLD RAIN FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND
THUS LOWER ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF THIS
DISCUSSION, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 0.5 INCHES OF SLUSH EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH A TRANSITION
THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS WITH THE FRONT MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS WERE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT INITIALLY MOVED ONSHORE, BUT
THESE HAVE ALREADY DECREASED TO BELOW GALE FORCE. AS THE FRONT
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING VARYING PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT. HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO MIX WITH SNOW, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN.
LONG TERM
/ SATURDAY TO TUESDAY / A SHORTWAVE RUNS NORTH ALONG
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
THEN TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS MAY PLAY HAVOC WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS. AS DIRECTIONS FLIP IN
RELATION TO LOWS AND FRONTS. A THIRD LOW WILL TRAIL THE SECOND TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO SUNDAY. LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RAIN DAY
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THAT REGION, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ISSUES.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVE EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE TUESDAY WHICH HAS DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY,
AND A BREAK INCOMING MIDWEEK THAT MAY CONTINUE TO THURSDAY.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY/
AS A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, EXPECT RAIN & SNOW TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS OF 5AM
AKDT, THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED ITS WAY UP TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. CIGS & VISS WILL PRIMARILY BE REDUCED
DOWN TO AROUND THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION ALONG & OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT & WITH
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING IT. CENTERED ALOFT
AT AROUND 2 KFT, LLWS MAGNITUDES OF UP TO AROUND 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG & JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE. SFC WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY UP TO AROUND
20 KT, GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY, WITH THE PUSH ALONG & OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: A FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE, WITH THE LOW SITTING IN THE EASTERN GULF OFFSHORE OF
CAPE DECISION. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES (17
TO 27 KTS) WITH NEAR GALE TO LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS (28 TO 40
KTS) WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE COAST, STAYING MORE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CENTRAL GULF WILL STAY MORE CALM THROUGH THIS
PERIOD STARTING AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. WINDS COMING OUT OF CROSS SOUND MAY STAY STRONG
BREEZES FOR LONGER THAN THE REST OF THE COASTAL SWATH OF WINDS,
CALMING DOWN SATURDAY. 6 TO 8 FT WAVES WILL FOLLOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST, STEADILY DECREASING TO 3 TO 5 FT FROM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE CENTRAL GULF WILL STAY CLOSER TO 4 TO 6
FT THROUGH SATURDAY. A SWATH OF 3 TO 4 FT SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THROUGH THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, OTHERWISE STAYING AROUND 1 TO 2 FT FRIDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARDS.
INSIDE WATERS: A FRONT IS CONTINUING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING, CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES (17 TO 21 KTS)
WITH STRONG GUSTS (22 TO 27 KTS) ARE FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL BAND
NORTH THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS, TAPERING OFF THE MORE NORTH THE
FRONT MOVES. BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS NEAR THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WILL BE REACHING THEIR PEAK AT MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES. THESE WINDS WILL TRY TO PUNCH NORTHWARD INTO LYNN
CANAL BY FRIDAY EVENING, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ENOUGH
ENERGY TO BRING THE STRONGER SPEEDS TOO FAR NORTH. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT, BECOMING LIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. 3 TO 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT,
WITH 5 TO 6 FT IN CHANNEL ENTRANCES. HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING 1 TO 2 FT BY
SATURDAY. HEIGHTS IN LYNN CANAL ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BETWEEN 1 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN THE REST OF
THE PANHANDLE PERSISTING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...ZTK
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