653
FXAK67 PAJK 031840
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1040 AM AKDT FRI APR 3 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOLLOWING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
PANHANDLE TO END THE WEEK WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
PANHANDLE NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY RAIN.
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY/
A BROAD LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE DECISION HAS SENT A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
OVER PART OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM SITKA THROUGH KAKE TO
PETERSBURG, BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AND SOUTH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES HAVE SO FAR BEEN
REPORTED ALONG THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE OUTER
COASTAL COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SITKA, KLAWOCK, AND HYDABURG SEEING
OCCASIONAL BREAKS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WHILE A FEW
OBSERVATIONS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE COME IN FOR KAKE WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET, PRECIPITATION FOR OTHER IMPACTED COMMUNITIES HAS
STAYED PRIMARILY RAIN. COMMUNITIES ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE THIS PRECIPITATION START AS WET SNOW OR
A SNOW/RAIN MIX BEFORE MAKING THE TRANSITION OVER TO MOSTLY RAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION REMAINS HAINES AND SKAGWAY,
WHO WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY
AS THE SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS AT THE SURFACE STRUGGLE TO PUNCH
NORTHWARD. A FASTER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY PUSH COULD LEAD TO A
FASTER TRANSITION TO COLD RAIN FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND
THUS LOWER ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF THIS
DISCUSSION, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 0.5 INCHES OF SLUSH EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH A TRANSITION
THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS WITH THE FRONT MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS WERE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT INITIALLY MOVED ONSHORE, BUT
THESE HAVE ALREADY DECREASED TO BELOW GALE FORCE. AS THE FRONT
MAKES IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING VARYING PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT. HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO MIX WITH SNOW, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN.
LONG TERM
/ SATURDAY TO TUESDAY / A SHORTWAVE RUNS NORTH ALONG
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
THEN TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS MAY PLAY HAVOC WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS. AS DIRECTIONS FLIP IN
RELATION TO LOWS AND FRONTS. A THIRD LOW WILL TRAIL THE SECOND TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO SUNDAY. LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RAIN DAY
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THAT REGION, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ISSUES.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVE EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE TUESDAY WHICH HAS DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY,
AND A BREAK INCOMING MIDWEEK THAT MAY CONTINUE TO THURSDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
THE FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BRING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME AREAS SEEING A WINTRY MIX
STILL IN THE NORTH. FOLLOWING THIS BAND AS IT MOVES UP THROUGH ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR NOW WILL BE CIGS DOWN TO AOB 1500 FT AND VIS TO 3
TO 5 SM WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING MVFR EVEN AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT SAW THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT ARE SEEING SOME MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH
THIS MORNING, WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE JUMPING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS AS
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH AND BRING DROPS TO CIGS AND VIS FROM 4000 FT
AND 6SM OR HIGHER VIS DOWN TO 1000 - 2000 FT CIGS AND 2 TO 4SM VIS
DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE IN PARTICULAR WILL SEE SOME
MORE ORGANIZED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
CIGS 700 - 1000 FT AND VIS TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 SM LARGELY FOR THE
SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 12Z THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY FOR AREAS A BIT INLAND FROM THE OUTER COASTLINE, FROM
PETERSBURG DOWN TO KETCHIKAN SEEING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE, MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL SEE LINGERING CIGS OF 2500 - 3000 FT AND VIS OF 5
- 6SM DROP TO 1000 - 1500 FT CIGS AND 2 - 4SM CIGS DURING THIS
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, BUT WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF DROPPING TO IFR OR LOWER
YET.
AREAS NORTH OF ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SEE
SOME CLOUD COVER MOVE IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING LARGELY AFTER 21Z FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH, AND AFTER 03Z FOR THE NE COAST / YAKUTAT AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO DETERIORATE
TO MVFR BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, THROUGH
SKAGWAY AND HAINES MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR TONIGHT IN
BETWEEN THE SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH, AND MAY SEE SOME LARGER
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
WITH AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IN SKAGWAY AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE N/S GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE LOW
GETTING CLOSER. THIS WILL BRING SOME N 15 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AND SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE 10 TO 15 KT WINDS AT
THE HIGHEST AS THE FRONT AND SHOWERS PASS, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KT POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS PASS THROUGH, BUT WILL OVERALL STAY AT OR
BELOW 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LLWS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THIS TIMEFRAME AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND
925 MB WINDS REMAIN HIGHEST OFFSHORE NEAR THE LOW.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: A FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE, WITH THE LOW SITTING IN THE EASTERN GULF OFFSHORE OF
CAPE DECISION. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES (17
TO 27 KTS) WITH NEAR GALE TO LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS (28 TO 40
KTS) WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE COAST, STAYING MORE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CENTRAL GULF WILL STAY MORE CALM THROUGH THIS
PERIOD STARTING AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. WINDS COMING OUT OF CROSS SOUND MAY STAY STRONG
BREEZES FOR LONGER THAN THE REST OF THE COASTAL SWATH OF WINDS,
CALMING DOWN SATURDAY. 6 TO 8 FT WAVES WILL FOLLOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST, STEADILY DECREASING TO 3 TO 5 FT FROM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE CENTRAL GULF WILL STAY CLOSER TO 4 TO 6
FT THROUGH SATURDAY. A SWATH OF 3 TO 4 FT SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THROUGH THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, OTHERWISE STAYING AROUND 1 TO 2 FT FRIDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARDS.
INSIDE WATERS: A FRONT IS CONTINUING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING, CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES (17 TO 21 KTS)
WITH STRONG GUSTS (22 TO 27 KTS) ARE FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL BAND
NORTH THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS, TAPERING OFF THE MORE NORTH THE
FRONT MOVES. BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS NEAR THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WILL BE REACHING THEIR PEAK AT MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES. THESE WINDS WILL TRY TO PUNCH NORTHWARD INTO LYNN
CANAL BY FRIDAY EVENING, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ENOUGH
ENERGY TO BRING THE STRONGER SPEEDS TOO FAR NORTH. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT, BECOMING LIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. 3 TO 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT,
WITH 5 TO 6 FT IN CHANNEL ENTRANCES. HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING 1 TO 2 FT BY
SATURDAY. HEIGHTS IN LYNN CANAL ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BETWEEN 1 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN THE REST OF
THE PANHANDLE PERSISTING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...ZTK
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